Week 1
Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
| Player/Team |
Baseline
|
Next 4
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
AVG
|
Playoffs
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 37.7 | 0.5 | Buccaneers 1.2 | Bears 3.9 | Falcons 2.0 | Titans 1.3 | Vikings 1.4 | Giants -2.7 | Bears -1.1 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| Chargers | 35.5 | 3.2 | Jets 4.4 | Patriots 7.2 | Buccaneers 0.8 | Raiders 1.4 | 49ers 5.5 | Dolphins 0.6 | Chiefs 6.7 | 3.4 | 4.3 |
| Ravens | 30.2 | 2.7 | Panthers -0.3 | Texans 2.0 | BYE - | Buccaneers 0.8 | Steelers 0.2 | Browns 1.7 | Bengals 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Saints | 32.0 | 1.3 | Bears 0.6 | Bengals -0.6 | Packers 5.4 | Panthers -0.7 | Buccaneers -0.9 | Cardinals 4.3 | Falcons 3.4 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Bengals | 36.7 | 1.9 | Commanders -6.4 | Saints 1.8 | Browns -0.5 | Chiefs 1.7 | Panthers -0.6 | Colts 2.5 | Ravens 2.2 | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Raiders | 28.4 | 2.5 | Broncos 0.9 | Browns -2.6 | BYE - | Chargers 2.7 | Broncos 4.3 | Titans 1.3 | Cardinals 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Buccaneers | 35.1 | 2.4 | Lions 5.5 | Panthers -3.6 | Chargers 3.4 | Ravens 1.0 | Saints 3.0 | Falcons 4.2 | Rams 2.7 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
| Vikings | 32.1 | 0.9 | 49ers -0.2 | Falcons 3.0 | Panthers 2.7 | Patriots 1.0 | Lions 5.2 | Commanders 2.8 | Jets -1.4 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Eagles | 33.3 | -2.0 | Steelers -0.4 | Cowboys 0.8 | Cardinals 1.0 | Colts -1.1 | Seahawks 2.2 | Texans -0.6 | 49ers -1.9 | -1.2 | -0.1 |
| Colts | 34.1 | 1.2 | Texans 1.5 | Giants 4.1 | BYE - | Eagles -1.4 | Titans -3.7 | Bengals 3.6 | Browns -2.1 | 0.8 | -0.7 |
| Steelers | 30.0 | -0.3 | Eagles -1.8 | Broncos 0.6 | Texans -0.6 | Jaguars -5.0 | Ravens 0.1 | Panthers -0.5 | Titans -3.0 | -1.2 | -1.1 |
| Packers | 34.7 | -1.4 | BYE - | Rams 0.5 | Saints 1.0 | Bills -1.2 | Dolphins -0.3 | Bears -1.4 | Texans -7.0 | -0.9 | -2.9 |
| Cardinals | 28.4 | -0.5 | Chiefs -1.0 | Commanders -0.3 | Eagles 1.5 | BYE - | Jets -0.4 | Saints 0.9 | Raiders -1.6 | 0.1 | -0.4 |
| Panthers | 33.2 | 0.6 | Ravens 0.8 | Buccaneers -5.4 | Vikings 1.8 | Saints 0.6 | Bengals 0.6 | Steelers -1.2 | Seahawks 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Texans | 33.8 | 3.7 | Colts 4.9 | Ravens 5.8 | Steelers -0.2 | Commanders -1.4 | Jaguars 6.1 | Eagles 0.7 | Packers -4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| Seahawks | 37.4 | 0.3 | BYE - | 49ers -1.6 | Cowboys -5.4 | Giants 1.1 | Eagles 0.1 | Rams 2.3 | Panthers -1.2 | -0.1 | 0.4 |
| Giants | 32.2 | -0.5 | Jaguars 2.3 | Colts 2.0 | 49ers -0.2 | Seahawks 0.9 | Browns -0.1 | Lions -1.1 | Cowboys 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| Titans | 29.7 | -0.1 | Cowboys 1.9 | Jaguars -0.6 | Commanders -1.3 | Lions 3.8 | Colts -0.5 | Raiders 0.4 | Steelers -0.5 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| Bears | 33.1 | -1.6 | Saints -0.4 | Lions 2.8 | Jaguars 0.2 | Dolphins -2.8 | Bills -2.9 | Packers -0.4 | Lions 1.2 | -1.0 | -0.7 |
| 49ers | 33.7 | 1.2 | Vikings 3.8 | Seahawks 2.4 | Giants -1.0 | Rams 1.2 | Chargers 3.4 | Chiefs -0.2 | Eagles 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Commanders | 31.5 | 1.8 | Bengals -4.6 | Cardinals 2.3 | Titans -3.4 | Texans -0.6 | Falcons 1.7 | Vikings 3.5 | Jaguars -0.4 | 0.3 | 1.6 |
| Bills | 32.4 | 1.9 | Dolphins 0.2 | Chiefs 2.0 | Patriots 1.0 | Packers -0.6 | Bears 1.3 | Broncos 0.1 | Dolphins -1.8 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| Cowboys | 39.2 | 0.0 | Titans 0.8 | Eagles 3.0 | Seahawks -6.0 | BYE - | Rams 0.6 | Jaguars 3.0 | Giants 2.2 | -0.2 | 1.9 |
| Rams | 38.6 | -0.8 | BYE - | Packers 2.4 | Chiefs 4.4 | 49ers -1.2 | Cowboys 1.7 | Seahawks 1.5 | Buccaneers -2.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Jaguars | 34.4 | -0.1 | Giants -2.6 | Titans -2.5 | Bears -1.0 | Steelers -5.9 | Texans 0.9 | Cowboys -0.2 | Commanders -1.9 | -1.2 | -0.4 |
| Browns | 26.5 | -0.7 | BYE - | Raiders -2.0 | Bengals 1.1 | Falcons 1.0 | Giants -0.2 | Ravens 0.1 | Colts -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Dolphins | 30.4 | -0.7 | Bills -2.0 | Jets -2.5 | Broncos 0.2 | Bears -0.9 | Packers -1.1 | Chargers -0.6 | Bills -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.8 |
| Patriots | 35.4 | 0.0 | BYE - | Chargers 3.2 | Bills 1.4 | Vikings 2.0 | Chiefs -4.3 | Jets -1.7 | Broncos 2.9 | 0.5 | -1.0 |
| Falcons | 30.9 | -1.3 | BYE - | Vikings 0.8 | Lions 5.0 | Browns -2.6 | Commanders -3.2 | Buccaneers 1.4 | Saints 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Chiefs | 34.7 | 0.0 | Cardinals 0.8 | Bills 0.3 | Rams 3.3 | Bengals -1.1 | Patriots -2.2 | 49ers 0.6 | Chargers 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Jets | 29.2 | 0.8 | Chargers 3.9 | Dolphins -1.4 | BYE - | Broncos 2.2 | Cardinals 2.3 | Patriots 2.7 | Vikings 2.6 | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| Broncos | 37.0 | 0.2 | Raiders -0.1 | Steelers -0.3 | Dolphins 1.5 | Jets -1.5 | Raiders 0.4 | Bills 1.5 | Patriots 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
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