Week 5
Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
| Player/Team |
Baseline
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Next 4
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5
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6
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7
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8
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9
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10
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11
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12
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13
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14
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15
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17
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AVG
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Playoffs
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 37.7 | 2.5 | Cardinals 6.9 | BYE - | Packers 0.3 | Vikings 0.4 | Dolphins -4.2 | Patriots -3.7 | Buccaneers -0.7 | Bears -2.0 | Falcons 0.3 | Titans -0.5 | Vikings -1.6 | Giants -3.1 | Bears -3.9 | -1.0 | -2.9 |
| Cardinals | 28.2 | 1.7 | Lions 4.6 | Rams -0.4 | Broncos 1.5 | Cowboys 1.1 | Seahawks -3.3 | Rams 0.5 | Chiefs -4.0 | Commanders 2.4 | Eagles 3.0 | BYE - | Jets 0.2 | Saints 1.2 | Raiders 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Cowboys | 44.6 | 1.0 | Buccaneers 4.2 | Packers -1.2 | Eagles -4.2 | Cardinals 5.1 | Colts -0.3 | 49ers 0.3 | Titans 0.8 | Eagles 2.4 | Seahawks -5.3 | BYE - | Rams -0.5 | Jaguars 0.9 | Giants 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Buccaneers | 34.0 | 0.0 | Cowboys 1.8 | Steelers -1.5 | Panthers -0.7 | Falcons 0.6 | Bears -3.5 | BYE - | Lions 3.2 | Panthers -3.0 | Chargers 0.7 | Ravens -0.1 | Saints -0.3 | Falcons 4.0 | Rams 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
| Broncos | 34.0 | 0.6 | Chargers 1.3 | Seahawks -1.3 | Cardinals 5.3 | Chiefs -2.8 | Panthers -0.3 | BYE - | Raiders -0.1 | Steelers -1.3 | Dolphins -1.1 | Jets -1.1 | Raiders 0.9 | Bills 1.0 | Patriots -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| Falcons | 31.6 | -0.5 | Ravens 1.2 | Bears -0.8 | 49ers -0.3 | Buccaneers -2.2 | Bengals -2.7 | Chiefs -0.2 | BYE - | Vikings 0.1 | Lions 3.2 | Browns -1.6 | Commanders -0.7 | Buccaneers 1.3 | Saints 1.8 | -0.1 | 0.8 |
| Chargers | 31.3 | -0.8 | Broncos 0.8 | Chiefs -3.9 | BYE - | Rams 0.5 | Texans 2.7 | Ravens -4.4 | Jets 1.3 | Patriots 1.8 | Buccaneers -1.2 | Raiders 0.8 | 49ers 1.2 | Dolphins -2.1 | Chiefs 1.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| Ravens | 32.2 | -2.7 | Falcons 0.5 | Browns -4.5 | Bengals -3.9 | Bills -2.9 | Jaguars -2.9 | Chargers -5.4 | Panthers -1.8 | Texans 0.6 | BYE - | Buccaneers -2.1 | Steelers -3.2 | Browns -1.7 | Bengals -2.9 | -2.5 | -2.6 |
| Commanders | 36.5 | -1.5 | Giants 0.3 | 49ers -5.9 | BYE - | Eagles 1.0 | Rams -0.2 | Giants -1.3 | Bengals -4.3 | Cardinals 4.6 | Titans -1.3 | Texans 1.5 | Falcons 1.9 | Vikings 2.3 | Jaguars 0.3 | -0.1 | 1.5 |
| Rams | 37.0 | 1.4 | Bills 0.3 | Cardinals 4.9 | Raiders 0.1 | Chargers 0.4 | Commanders -1.7 | Cardinals 1.9 | BYE - | Packers -0.2 | Chiefs -1.5 | 49ers -4.4 | Cowboys 1.5 | Seahawks -2.5 | Buccaneers -3.3 | -0.4 | -1.4 |
| Jaguars | 38.4 | 1.6 | Eagles 0.3 | Texans 4.8 | BYE - | Colts -0.2 | Ravens 0.1 | Titans -1.8 | Giants -0.5 | Titans -0.7 | Bears -3.0 | Steelers -3.2 | Texans 4.1 | Cowboys 3.6 | Commanders 1.2 | 0.4 | 3.0 |
| Vikings | 28.8 | 1.0 | Saints 0.1 | BYE - | Colts 0.0 | Lions 2.7 | Bills -1.5 | Packers -0.7 | 49ers -2.5 | Falcons 2.8 | Panthers 2.6 | Patriots -1.3 | Lions 4.5 | Commanders 4.5 | Jets -1.2 | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| Jets | 31.7 | -1.4 | Browns -0.1 | Patriots -2.5 | Dolphins -2.4 | Raiders -0.5 | Chiefs -2.7 | Bills 0.1 | Chargers 1.7 | Dolphins -2.6 | BYE - | Broncos 1.3 | Cardinals 5.9 | Patriots 0.3 | Vikings 1.1 | 0.0 | 2.4 |
| Patriots | 37.5 | -1.8 | Raiders -0.6 | Jets -0.7 | Bears -3.4 | Dolphins -2.4 | Packers -0.2 | Lions 4.2 | BYE - | Chargers 1.9 | Bills 0.3 | Vikings 0.5 | Chiefs -5.9 | Jets -1.1 | Broncos 1.7 | -0.5 | -1.7 |
| Steelers | 33.0 | -0.5 | Colts -0.7 | Buccaneers -0.9 | Saints -0.2 | Browns -0.2 | BYE - | Bengals -2.2 | Eagles 0.2 | Broncos 1.3 | Texans 1.4 | Jaguars -3.9 | Ravens 1.3 | Panthers 1.9 | Titans -0.3 | -0.2 | 1.0 |
| Saints | 36.8 | -2.3 | Vikings -0.9 | Giants -3.6 | Steelers -2.6 | BYE - | Browns 1.4 | Panthers 2.9 | Bears -3.4 | Bengals -3.1 | Packers 1.2 | Panthers -0.7 | Buccaneers -1.7 | Cardinals 5.1 | Falcons 3.0 | -0.2 | 2.1 |
| Seahawks | 41.8 | -2.3 | 49ers -1.0 | Broncos -0.1 | Chiefs -2.1 | Bears -5.9 | Cardinals 3.0 | Raiders 1.5 | BYE - | 49ers -3.1 | Cowboys -3.3 | Giants 0.5 | Eagles 0.5 | Rams -0.6 | Panthers 0.1 | -0.9 | 0.0 |
| Eagles | 35.0 | -0.9 | Jaguars -1.4 | Panthers 0.0 | Cowboys -2.6 | Commanders 0.2 | Giants -1.1 | BYE - | Steelers -0.3 | Cowboys 3.3 | Cardinals 4.8 | Colts -0.3 | Seahawks 0.6 | Texans 2.7 | 49ers -0.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Bills | 35.3 | -0.5 | Rams -1.4 | Raiders 1.0 | BYE - | Ravens -1.0 | Vikings -3.1 | Jets -3.6 | Dolphins -3.3 | Chiefs -2.8 | Patriots -2.5 | Packers -2.4 | Bears -3.6 | Broncos -0.6 | Dolphins -3.2 | -2.2 | -2.4 |
| Colts | 34.0 | -0.1 | Steelers -1.5 | Titans 2.1 | Vikings 1.7 | Jaguars -2.6 | Cowboys 3.6 | Dolphins 1.3 | Texans 2.4 | Giants 2.6 | BYE - | Eagles 0.2 | Titans -1.4 | Bengals 1.9 | Browns -0.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Browns | 28.3 | -1.5 | Jets -1.8 | Ravens -0.6 | Titans -1.6 | Steelers -2.1 | Saints 0.9 | Texans 0.3 | BYE - | Raiders -0.1 | Bengals -0.3 | Falcons 2.0 | Giants -1.0 | Ravens 0.1 | Colts -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.3 |
| Giants | 29.4 | 0.5 | Commanders -2.0 | Saints 1.0 | Texans 2.6 | BYE - | Eagles 0.7 | Commanders 1.6 | Jaguars -0.2 | Colts 1.1 | 49ers -0.9 | Seahawks -0.7 | Browns 1.1 | Lions 1.5 | Cowboys 3.4 | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Titans | 34.6 | -0.8 | Texans -2.1 | Colts 0.4 | Browns -0.4 | Bengals -1.3 | BYE - | Jaguars 0.1 | Cowboys 3.9 | Jaguars -0.4 | Commanders 2.2 | Lions 5.0 | Colts 0.0 | Raiders 3.4 | Steelers 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Dolphins | 32.2 | -1.4 | Bengals -2.6 | BYE - | Jets -1.3 | Patriots -0.2 | Lions 2.9 | Colts 1.9 | Bills 0.3 | Jets 0.1 | Broncos 1.3 | Bears -0.2 | Packers 1.2 | Chargers 2.3 | Bills 2.6 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Packers | 36.9 | 0.4 | Bears -2.6 | Cowboys 0.6 | Lions 3.1 | Panthers 0.4 | Patriots -2.0 | Vikings -2.4 | BYE - | Rams 0.8 | Saints 1.3 | Bills 0.5 | Dolphins -1.2 | Bears -1.6 | Texans -1.8 | -0.4 | -1.5 |
| Bengals | 42.1 | -1.2 | Dolphins -2.7 | BYE - | Ravens -0.5 | Titans -0.3 | Falcons 4.0 | Steelers -0.4 | Commanders -3.1 | Saints 0.0 | Browns -0.6 | Chiefs -1.4 | Panthers 0.0 | Colts 1.4 | Ravens 0.9 | -0.2 | 0.8 |
| Raiders | 26.5 | -1.0 | Patriots -3.3 | Bills 0.9 | Rams 1.0 | Jets -2.5 | 49ers -3.9 | Seahawks 0.6 | Broncos -2.1 | Browns -3.0 | BYE - | Chargers 1.4 | Broncos 2.8 | Titans 1.6 | Cardinals 4.2 | -0.2 | 2.9 |
| Texans | 36.6 | -1.2 | Titans -3.5 | Jaguars -2.5 | Giants 2.3 | BYE - | Chargers 1.2 | Browns -1.9 | Colts 1.0 | Ravens 2.4 | Steelers -0.9 | Commanders -0.2 | Jaguars 0.8 | Eagles 0.6 | Packers -4.5 | -0.4 | -1.0 |
| Bears | 37.1 | -2.1 | Packers -3.8 | Falcons 2.3 | Patriots -1.7 | Seahawks -5.1 | Buccaneers -1.2 | BYE - | Saints -1.3 | Lions 2.8 | Jaguars -0.9 | Dolphins -3.0 | Bills -1.2 | Packers -1.2 | Lions 1.1 | -1.1 | -0.5 |
| 49ers | 35.5 | -1.0 | Seahawks -4.3 | Commanders -2.5 | Falcons 3.9 | BYE - | Raiders -1.1 | Cowboys 2.1 | Vikings 0.7 | Seahawks -1.5 | Giants -1.8 | Rams -1.1 | Chargers 0.9 | Chiefs -3.2 | Eagles 0.1 | -0.7 | -0.7 |
| Panthers | 31.0 | -0.1 | BYE - | Eagles 0.2 | Buccaneers -0.1 | Packers -0.5 | Broncos 1.3 | Saints 2.3 | Ravens -0.1 | Buccaneers -4.6 | Vikings 1.7 | Saints 0.0 | Bengals 0.3 | Steelers 0.2 | Seahawks 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Chiefs | 34.8 | -1.4 | BYE - | Chargers -0.9 | Seahawks -2.2 | Broncos -1.1 | Jets -2.2 | Falcons 1.6 | Cardinals 1.4 | Bills -1.5 | Rams -0.1 | Bengals -3.2 | Patriots -4.6 | 49ers -1.6 | Chargers 1.0 | -1.1 | -1.7 |
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