Week 1

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Player/Team
Baseline
Next 4
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AVG
Playoffs
Lions 25.1 0.5 3.7 -1.5 2.0 -2.2 -0.1 - 2.7 2.9 -1.7 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.5 1.1 1.0 -2.2 -0.9 0.6 -0.7
Chargers 22.9 2.6 3.5 3.1 1.2 2.8 5.6 1.5 - 4.1 3.4 -2.2 3.7 5.5 1.0 1.2 4.4 0.6 5.3 2.8 3.4
Ravens 19.2 2.2 3.0 2.3 3.4 0.2 3.3 -0.7 1.2 0.1 2.6 -1.4 -0.1 1.6 - 0.8 0.3 1.5 0.4 1.2 0.7
Saints 20.2 1.0 2.6 0.0 1.7 -0.3 4.6 0.1 -0.2 - 2.9 3.6 0.5 -0.3 4.1 -0.4 -0.5 3.4 2.6 1.5 1.8
Bengals 24.2 1.6 2.6 2.0 -0.4 2.0 -0.5 - 0.4 -0.1 2.9 0.3 -4.9 1.5 -0.2 1.4 -0.4 1.9 1.9 0.7 1.1
Raiders 17.0 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.1 2.4 0.6 1.7 2.9 -0.9 -0.9 2.8 0.7 -2.0 - 2.1 3.2 1.1 0.4 1.2 1.6
Buccaneers 22.3 2.0 1.9 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.0 0.0 2.2 1.3 - 4.1 -2.8 2.9 0.9 2.5 3.3 2.2 1.8 2.7
Vikings 19.7 0.8 1.8 0.0 -1.0 2.3 2.0 - 2.2 2.8 -1.5 -0.3 0.0 2.3 2.1 0.7 3.9 2.3 -0.8 1.2 1.8
Eagles 20.7 -1.5 1.6 -2.5 -5.0 0.0 0.2 -1.2 -4.5 -1.7 -0.4 - -0.2 0.7 0.7 -0.8 1.7 -0.3 -1.3 -0.8 0.0
Colts 22.3 1.0 1.3 0.2 2.6 -0.1 -2.0 1.6 1.4 -1.0 2.1 2.7 1.2 3.3 - -1.1 -2.7 2.8 -1.5 0.7 -0.5
Packers 22.5 -0.9 1.0 -2.6 -0.1 -1.9 0.1 -1.0 1.9 -1.0 -0.5 -0.1 - 0.3 0.7 -0.8 -0.1 -1.1 -5.5 -0.7 -2.2
Steelers 18.7 -0.2 0.7 0.3 -0.4 -1.5 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 - -1.3 -1.3 0.6 -0.3 -4.0 0.2 -0.2 -2.1 -0.8 -0.7
Panthers 20.8 0.5 0.5 1.9 -2.0 1.5 - -1.1 -0.3 -0.2 1.1 2.3 0.7 -4.2 1.3 0.6 0.6 -0.8 1.8 0.2 0.5
Cardinals 18.0 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -1.5 -2.2 1.0 0.9 1.3 0.0 -1.1 0.9 -0.8 -0.2 1.0 - -0.3 0.6 -1.2 0.0 -0.3
Giants 19.8 -0.3 0.4 -1.6 -0.7 0.8 -1.4 1.2 1.1 - -1.1 -0.6 1.8 1.5 0.0 0.7 0.1 -1.1 0.4 0.1 -0.2
Texans 22.1 2.9 0.4 4.8 3.0 3.5 -0.9 2.1 3.8 - 2.9 -0.3 3.9 4.5 0.0 -0.9 4.7 0.6 -3.8 1.8 0.5
Titans 18.5 0.1 0.2 0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 1.7 -0.4 0.0 - 0.4 1.5 -0.5 -0.8 2.8 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 0.3 -0.1
Bears 21.2 -1.2 0.2 0.0 -4.1 -0.8 -1.3 0.6 0.4 -4.0 -1.6 - -0.3 2.0 0.2 -2.1 -2.2 -0.2 0.9 -0.8 -0.5
Commanders 20.2 1.4 0.0 0.9 2.1 2.7 0.7 -4.0 - 1.6 2.0 -0.5 -3.5 1.8 -2.4 -0.3 1.5 2.6 -0.3 0.3 1.3
Seahawks 25.3 0.2 0.0 1.1 -1.5 1.4 0.8 1.0 2.0 -2.6 0.3 0.2 - -1.1 -4.1 1.0 0.2 1.9 -0.9 0.0 0.4
49ers 21.6 1.0 -0.1 0.7 0.7 2.6 1.5 -3.5 2.4 - -0.4 1.5 2.9 1.8 -0.6 1.1 2.8 -0.1 0.5 0.8 1.0
Cowboys 26.3 0.1 -0.1 1.0 0.4 -1.0 0.9 -1.7 -6.5 1.0 0.1 1.4 0.7 2.2 -4.8 - 0.3 2.2 1.7 -0.1 1.4
Bills 20.3 1.5 -0.2 2.3 1.6 2.5 -1.9 -0.1 - 1.1 -1.9 -1.8 0.2 1.6 0.7 -0.4 1.1 0.1 -1.3 0.2 0.0
Rams 26.3 -0.6 -0.5 -1.5 0.7 -0.9 -1.4 1.4 -0.2 2.8 -1.3 0.2 - 1.8 3.4 -0.8 1.4 1.1 -1.8 0.3 0.2
Jaguars 22.4 0.0 -0.6 0.0 1.7 -1.1 -0.6 1.0 - -0.6 -0.5 -3.3 -1.9 -1.7 -0.8 -4.5 0.7 -0.2 -1.3 -0.9 -0.2
Browns 16.1 -0.5 -1.0 -0.6 -0.6 0.3 -0.5 0.6 -1.2 -1.1 1.7 0.0 - -1.4 1.0 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Dolphins 18.2 -0.5 -1.2 -1.4 -0.1 0.7 -0.8 - -2.2 0.1 0.5 1.0 -1.4 -1.7 0.1 -0.7 -0.8 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5
Patriots 23.4 0.0 -1.7 1.2 1.0 -0.5 -0.5 0.6 0.7 -0.5 1.0 3.3 - 2.6 1.2 1.6 -3.4 -0.9 2.3 0.5 -0.7
Falcons 19.3 -1.1 -1.9 1.6 -0.9 -3.1 2.6 3.0 2.3 -1.3 -1.0 2.5 - 0.5 3.8 -1.9 -2.3 1.2 2.8 0.5 0.6
Chiefs 23.1 0.1 -1.9 1.7 -0.1 0.7 - 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.7 2.4 0.7 0.4 2.6 -0.7 -1.8 0.7 3.1 0.8 0.7
Jets 18.0 0.7 -2.0 1.0 3.5 0.2 0.2 1.5 0.5 0.3 1.2 0.8 3.1 -1.0 - 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.1 1.1 2.0
Broncos 24.6 0.2 -4.0 2.4 2.5 0.0 2.9 2.9 1.3 2.1 -0.9 - 0.1 -0.1 1.2 -0.9 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.8 1.0

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