Week 3

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Player/Team
Baseline
Next 4
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AVG
Playoffs
Jets 19.3 0.8 3.4 -1.1 1.7 -0.7 0.0 0.5 -1.2 3.2 4.9 -2.1 - -0.6 4.7 -0.7 2.1 1.0 2.0
Packers 25.9 0.5 2.8 -1.7 -0.5 1.3 4.9 1.7 -1.3 0.4 - 0.7 1.6 2.0 -0.2 -1.0 -2.2 0.6 -1.1
Ravens 21.9 0.8 2.3 1.0 1.6 -1.9 -2.3 -0.4 -1.3 -1.4 -0.9 1.8 - -1.8 -3.4 0.4 -3.0 -0.7 -2.0
Lions 28.1 2.7 2.0 1.3 4.7 - 4.0 4.4 -0.6 -1.0 2.2 3.1 4.0 5.2 2.7 0.8 0.0 2.3 1.2
Raiders 20.2 3.0 1.9 2.3 0.2 7.4 4.9 0.2 0.7 2.9 -0.2 1.1 - 7.7 4.1 7.6 6.5 3.4 6.1
Texans 22.1 -0.2 1.5 1.4 -1.2 -2.4 1.8 - 1.1 -2.6 3.3 0.4 -3.8 -2.3 -0.2 -2.6 -6.3 -0.8 -3.0
Cardinals 16.8 2.9 1.2 0.9 7.1 2.6 1.7 3.1 -0.3 2.7 -0.5 4.7 3.4 - 1.8 3.1 2.4 2.4 2.5
Bills 20.0 -0.4 1.2 -0.9 -2.7 0.5 - 0.0 -1.9 -2.3 -1.5 -1.0 -1.9 -0.3 -0.7 -2.6 -2.5 -1.2 -1.9
Chargers 25.6 -1.1 1.2 -3.0 0.0 -2.5 - -0.1 3.0 -4.7 -0.1 0.8 -2.4 -0.6 1.1 -3.5 -0.4 -0.8 -0.9
49ers 20.8 -1.9 0.9 -2.1 -3.7 -2.5 1.8 - -1.3 1.0 1.8 -2.2 -0.9 -1.5 2.7 -3.6 -1.6 -0.8 -0.8
Colts 21.5 1.1 0.8 2.0 -3.0 4.6 2.0 -1.8 3.3 1.8 3.6 4.5 - -1.7 0.5 1.6 -0.1 1.3 0.7
Saints 23.6 0.8 0.5 -0.8 3.4 0.0 -2.5 - 3.1 3.9 -1.7 -2.4 2.6 -0.3 -3.1 5.1 1.8 0.7 1.3
Falcons 17.2 1.3 0.2 -1.4 2.9 3.3 3.7 -0.8 0.0 1.5 - 2.3 7.6 0.9 0.4 2.2 4.3 1.9 2.3
Vikings 21.1 1.3 -0.2 2.0 2.1 - 5.6 5.2 0.7 -0.5 0.1 3.1 3.8 -0.9 6.7 4.8 -1.3 2.2 3.4
Broncos 21.8 0.5 -0.5 -0.3 4.0 -1.0 4.2 -1.4 0.5 - -0.6 -1.8 0.5 -1.4 0.5 2.4 -1.1 0.3 0.6
Cowboys 28.7 1.7 -0.6 4.0 2.6 0.7 -4.5 5.6 4.0 3.2 5.1 3.2 -5.3 - 2.0 2.9 4.4 1.9 3.1
Steelers 22.1 -0.2 -0.7 0.0 1.2 -1.5 -0.5 0.0 - -1.5 -1.5 -1.6 1.6 -3.9 -0.5 0.9 0.6 -0.5 0.3
Browns 16.4 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.4 -0.6 0.6 -2.7 1.3 1.1 - -1.3 -0.1 1.0 0.3 -1.1 2.5 -0.2 0.6
Buccaneers 24.4 0.5 -1.5 1.2 2.7 -0.3 0.8 1.8 -1.1 - 5.3 -2.3 3.9 -1.2 1.5 2.9 -0.6 0.9 1.3
Titans 20.3 0.9 -1.6 -0.5 1.6 4.0 0.8 -0.1 - -0.1 2.6 -0.7 0.9 4.8 2.6 1.6 -1.2 1.1 1.0
Jaguars 26.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.2 -0.4 3.8 - 2.1 -0.5 0.7 -0.2 2.0 -1.1 -4.4 3.4 1.8 1.6 0.4 2.3
Giants 19.5 -0.3 -2.1 2.2 -0.9 -0.5 2.1 - -2.8 0.1 -1.2 2.9 -1.4 -2.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.3 -0.1
Dolphins 19.1 -0.3 -2.1 2.2 -0.9 - -2.0 -1.0 3.3 3.3 0.5 -1.6 -1.6 -0.9 -0.3 1.2 1.9 0.1 0.9
Patriots 21.4 -1.5 -2.4 -0.3 -1.6 -1.8 -2.2 -2.6 -0.3 4.2 - 3.5 2.0 0.9 -6.9 -3.9 -1.8 -0.9 -4.2
Eagles 25.4 -1.1 -2.5 -1.3 -1.0 0.3 -3.1 -0.5 1.0 - -1.8 1.8 3.1 2.1 -1.0 2.3 -1.2 -0.1 0.0
Chiefs 21.8 -0.4 -2.5 -0.4 - 1.8 -3.3 -3.0 -1.6 1.5 2.1 1.1 0.0 -2.9 -6.1 -1.2 2.9 -0.8 -1.5
Panthers 22.6 -1.2 -2.7 2.7 - -3.7 -1.4 -2.1 -2.5 1.1 -1.5 -7.6 -0.2 -0.3 -1.7 -3.7 -3.4 -1.9 -3.0
Seahawks 28.0 -0.7 -3.1 2.1 -0.1 -1.8 0.1 -3.2 3.9 1.3 - 0.0 -2.2 2.5 0.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.5
Bengals 27.1 -1.7 -3.5 0.1 -1.6 - -1.6 2.7 3.6 -1.1 -3.4 1.2 0.6 -1.6 0.7 3.6 0.4 0.0 1.6
Rams 25.1 -1.4 -5.0 -3.5 -0.4 3.4 -0.7 2.9 -0.6 2.1 - 0.8 0.0 -2.6 1.2 -4.0 -3.9 -0.7 -2.2
Commanders 20.6 -1.8 -5.9 3.4 0.0 -4.8 - -1.9 -1.0 -0.9 -5.6 2.8 -1.3 0.2 -0.3 1.0 -2.6 -1.2 -0.6
Bears 21.8 -4.1 -7.9 -4.1 -3.9 -0.5 -4.6 -8.6 -3.6 - -1.5 2.4 -2.9 -4.5 -2.8 -2.2 1.2 -3.1 -1.3

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