Predictive insights with statistical integrity

At Subvertadown, a track record of predictive accuracy against other rankings is just the starting point.

What followers here really appreciate is the deeper analysis that helps them take ownership of their decisions. Intuitive visualizations reveal the range of outcomes they can expect, grounded in historical data. Predictive models break down the components of fantasy scores, helping them understand the real drivers—and where points are likely to come from. Forward-looking projections help them plan ahead, weigh their options, and make smarter roster moves. And specialized tools, like D/ST Pairing, help them make better use of their bench space.

It's about extracting clearer, more actionable insights from analysis that's otherwise too complex— so you can make informed decisions with greater confidence, rather than relying on rankings alone.

Whether you're discovering my work through JJ Zachariason’s LateRound, where I provide kicker rankings, or through word-of-mouth, you're probably here because you trust in the value of meaningful predictive signals, to make better-informed fantasy decisions.

The live visualizations featured on this page demonstrate just some of the deeper analysis that "goes beyond just rankings": guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, and visuals that depict actual historical "range of outcomes" for similar matchups.

Rankings for Fantasy Football Flex Players

Weekly RB, WR, and TE rankings for 0.5 PPR. · Week 6

Position
Rankings for Fantasy Football Flex Players
Rank Player Tm Matchup Proj
1 ATL-1 vs. CHI 15.1
2 KC-1 vs. LAC 14.7
3 SF-1 vs. WAS 14.7
4 BAL-1 @ CLE 14.6
5 IND-1 vs. TEN 14.5
6 BUF-1 @ LV 14.0
7 LAR-1 vs. ARI 13.6
8 CHI-1 @ ATL 13.2
9 SF-1 vs. WAS 13.0
10 BAL-1 @ CLE 13.0
11 DAL-1 @ GB 12.9
12 ATL-1 vs. CHI 12.8
13 LAR-1 vs. ARI 12.8
14 SEA-1 @ DEN 12.4
15 CAR-1 @ PHI 12.3
16 LV-1 vs. BUF 12.3
17 SF-1 vs. WAS 12.3
18 NE-1 vs. NYJ 12.2
19 NYJ-1 @ NE 12.2
20 LV-1 vs. BUF 12.0
21 IND-1 vs. TEN 11.8
22 ARI-1 @ LAR 11.7
23 PIT-1 @ TB 11.5
24 DAL-1 @ GB 11.5
25 NO-1 @ NYG 11.1
26 JAC-1 @ HOU 10.9
27 GB-1 vs. DAL 10.8
28 PHI-1 vs. CAR 10.8
29 KC-1 vs. LAC 10.6
30 CAR-1 @ PHI 10.6
31 HOU-1 @ JAC 10.3
32 DAL-2 @ GB 10.3
33 NYG-1 vs. NO 10.2
34 NYG-1 vs. NO 9.9
35 PHI-1 vs. CAR 9.8
36 NE-1 vs. NYJ 9.7
37 ARI-1 @ LAR 9.6
38 LAR-2 vs. ARI 9.5
39 JAC-1 @ HOU 9.4
40 HOU-1 @ JAC 9.3
41 GB-1 vs. DAL 9.3
42 KC-1 vs. LAC 9.3
43 TB-1 vs. PIT 9.3
44 CAR-2 @ PHI 9.3
45 IND-1 vs. TEN 9.3
46 GB-2 vs. DAL 9.3
47 NE-1 vs. NYJ 9.2
48 GB-1 vs. DAL 9.1
49 CHI-1 @ ATL 9.1
50 CLE-1 vs. BAL 9.0
51 NYG-1 vs. NO 8.8
52 SEA-1 @ DEN 8.8
53 DEN-1 vs. SEA 8.6
54 CHI-2 @ ATL 8.6
55 TEN-1 @ IND 8.6
56 PIT-1 @ TB 8.5
57 NYJ-1 @ NE 8.5
58 ARI-1 @ LAR 8.4
59 LAR-1 vs. ARI 8.4
60 BUF-1 @ LV 8.3
61 CHI-1 @ ATL 8.3
62 WAS-1 @ SF 8.3
63 JAC-2 @ HOU 8.3
64 CLE-1 vs. BAL 8.3
65 IND-2 vs. TEN 8.2
66 TEN-2 @ IND 8.2
67 CAR-1 @ PHI 8.0
68 LAC-1 @ KC 7.9
69 ATL-1 vs. CHI 7.9
70 NO-1 @ NYG 7.8
71 CLE-1 vs. BAL 7.8
72 JAC-1 @ HOU 7.8
73 DEN-1 vs. SEA 7.7
74 DEN-2 vs. SEA 7.7
75 LAR-2 vs. ARI 7.6
76 PHI-1 vs. CAR 7.6
77 WAS-2 @ SF 7.6
78 NE-2 vs. NYJ 7.6
79 LV-1 vs. BUF 7.6
80 NO-2 @ NYG 7.6
81 TEN-1 @ IND 7.5
82 NE-3 vs. NYJ 7.4
83 PIT-2 @ TB 7.4
84 LAC-1 @ KC 7.4
85 TB-1 vs. PIT 7.4
86 SF-2 vs. WAS 7.3
87 TB-2 vs. PIT 7.2
88 BAL-1 @ CLE 7.1
89 PIT-1 @ TB 7.0
90 DEN-2 vs. SEA 6.9
91 BUF-1 @ LV 6.9
92 WAS-1 @ SF 6.8
93 PHI-2 vs. CAR 6.8
94 HOU-2 @ JAC 6.8
95 PHI-2 vs. CAR 6.8
96 IND-3 vs. TEN 6.7
97 CHI-3 @ ATL 6.7
98 TB-1 vs. PIT 6.6
99 LV-2 vs. BUF 6.6
100 BUF-2 @ LV 6.5
101 WAS-1 @ SF 6.4
102 BUF-3 @ LV 6.4
103 KC-2 vs. LAC 6.4
104 DAL-3 @ GB 6.4
105 DAL-1 @ GB 6.4
106 NO-1 @ NYG 6.4
107 LAC-1 @ KC 6.3
108 LAC-2 @ KC 6.2
109 LAR-2 vs. ARI 6.0
110 HOU-1 @ JAC 6.0
111 SEA-1 @ DEN 5.9
112 ATL-2 vs. CHI 5.8
113 PIT-2 @ TB 5.8
114 HOU-3 @ JAC 5.8
115 DEN-1 vs. SEA 5.6
116 ARI-2 @ LAR 5.5
117 KC-3 vs. LAC 5.5
118 NYG-2 vs. NO 5.5
119 NE-4 vs. NYJ 5.5
120 SEA-2 @ DEN 5.5
121 ATL-2 vs. CHI 5.4
122 CLE-2 vs. BAL 5.4
123 PHI-3 vs. CAR 5.3
124 LAC-2 @ KC 5.3
125 NO-2 @ NYG 5.3
126 BAL-2 @ CLE 5.3
127 WAS-2 @ SF 5.2
128 LAC-2 @ KC 5.0
129 JAC-3 @ HOU 5.0
130 NO-3 @ NYG 5.0
131 LV-2 vs. BUF 5.0
132 NYG-3 vs. NO 5.0
133 KC-2 vs. LAC 4.9
134 LV-2 vs. BUF 4.9
135 CLE-3 vs. BAL 4.9
136 JAC-2 @ HOU 4.9
137 TEN-2 @ IND 4.9
138 TB-3 vs. PIT 4.9
139 GB-2 vs. DAL 4.7
140 TB-2 vs. PIT 4.7
141 PHI-4 vs. CAR 4.5
142 SEA-3 @ DEN 4.5
143 SF-2 vs. WAS 4.4
144 ARI-2 @ LAR 4.4
145 KC-4 vs. LAC 4.4
146 NYJ-2 @ NE 4.4
147 ATL-3 vs. CHI 4.4
148 HOU-4 @ JAC 4.4
149 GB-3 vs. DAL 4.4
150 TEN-3 @ IND 4.3
151 SF-3 vs. WAS 4.3
152 IND-4 vs. TEN 4.2
153 DEN-3 vs. SEA 4.1
154 LAR-3 vs. ARI 4.1
155 PIT-2 @ TB 4.1
156 DEN-4 vs. SEA 4.1
157 NE-2 vs. NYJ 4.0
158 SEA-2 @ DEN 4.0
159 TEN-4 @ IND 4.0
160 NYJ-3 @ NE 4.0
161 JAC-4 @ HOU 3.9
162 WAS-3 @ SF 3.9
163 LAC-3 @ KC 3.9
164 CHI-4 @ ATL 3.9
165 LAR-4 vs. ARI 3.9
166 LV-3 vs. BUF 3.9
167 LV-4 vs. BUF 3.9
168 BUF-2 @ LV 3.8
169 NYG-2 vs. NO 3.8
170 BAL-2 @ CLE 3.6
171 BUF-3 @ LV 3.6
172 IND-2 vs. TEN 3.5
173 NYJ-2 @ NE 3.5
174 CLE-2 vs. BAL 3.4
175 CHI-2 @ ATL 3.4
176 WAS-3 @ SF 3.4
177 CHI-3 @ ATL 3.1
178 NO-3 @ NYG 3.1
179 GB-3 vs. DAL 3.1
180 TB-3 vs. PIT 2.9

Refreshed 46 minutes ago

Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts. Fantasy scores are projected for QB, D/ST, and Kicker, and Strength of Schedule charts project fantasy point deviations for RB, WR, and TE.

D/STs

Player/Team 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Patriots 10.9 4.7 8.2 6.2 5.1 - 6.5 5.2 6.5 5.9 8.1 5.6 6.6
Chiefs 9.6 5.8 6.2 9.2 6.6 7.6 4.6 3.6 5.9 6.4 4.6 5.9 6.3

Quarterbacks

Player/Team 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Josh Allen | BUF 24.9 - 21.0 18.2 18.7 19.4 20.5 18.3 19.7 20.9 19.6 19.0 20.0
Brock Purdy | SF 21.5 20.5 - 20.0 18.4 17.7 17.2 18.4 17.3 18.2 16.8 17.9 18.5

This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities: Where on the field the play is likely to stop. Get unique visual insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.

Brandon Aubrey

  • Not significantly different from the average kicker situation.
  • Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range

How to read this chart

The range of possible outcomes is a truly key consideration for anyone serious about strategizing their lineups. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.

Patriots Similar historical matchups

Matchup Year Wk Result
Similar Patriots @ Jets 2021 2 16
Similar Jaguars vs Texans 2022 5 4
Boom Patriots @ Jets 2021 2 16
Bust Dolphins @ Jaguars 2015 2 -1