Predictive insights with statistical integrity

At Subvertadown, a track record of predictive accuracy against other rankings is just the starting point.

What followers here really appreciate is the deeper analysis that helps them take ownership of their decisions. Intuitive visualizations reveal the range of outcomes they can expect, grounded in historical data. Predictive models break down the components of fantasy scores, helping them understand the real drivers—and where points are likely to come from. Forward-looking projections help them plan ahead, weigh their options, and make smarter roster moves. And specialized tools, like D/ST Pairing, help them make better use of their bench space.

It's about extracting clearer, more actionable insights from analysis that's otherwise too complex— so you can make informed decisions with greater confidence, rather than relying on rankings alone.

Whether you're discovering my work through JJ Zachariason’s LateRound, where I provide kicker rankings, or through word-of-mouth, you're probably here because you trust in the value of meaningful predictive signals, to make better-informed fantasy decisions.

The live visualizations featured on this page demonstrate just some of the deeper analysis that "goes beyond just rankings": guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, and visuals that depict actual historical "range of outcomes" for similar matchups.

Rankings for Fantasy Football Flex Players

Weekly RB, WR, and TE rankings for 0.5 PPR. · Week 10

Position
Rankings for Fantasy Football Flex Players
Rank Player Proj Tm Matchup
1 20.6 ATL-1 vs. KC
2 19.1 KC-1 @ ATL
3 18.9 CAR-1 @ NO
4 18.8 DET-1 🌐 NE
5 18.3 SF-1 @ DAL
6 17.9 DAL-1 vs. SF
7 17.0 DET-1 🌐 NE
8 16.5 SEA-1 @ LV
9 16.1 CIN-1 vs. PIT
10 16.1 BAL-1 vs. LAC
11 15.9 BUF-1 @ NYJ
12 14.6 JAC-1 @ TEN
13 14.1 LAR-1 @ ARI
14 13.6 HOU-1 @ CLE
15 13.5 PIT-1 @ CIN
16 13.5 DAL-1 vs. SF
17 13.1 IND-1 vs. MIA
18 12.7 MIN-1 @ GB
19 12.7 CIN-2 vs. PIT
20 12.5 ARI-1 vs. LAR
21 12.5 CAR-1 @ NO
22 12.5 IND-1 vs. MIA
23 12.5 TEN-1 vs. JAC
24 12.4 NYG-1 vs. WAS
25 12.0 JAC-1 @ TEN
26 12.0 NE-1 🌐 DET
27 11.9 MIA-1 @ IND
28 11.9 NO-1 vs. CAR
29 11.8 CIN-1 vs. PIT
30 11.8 NYJ-1 vs. BUF
31 11.8 GB-1 vs. MIN
32 11.7 GB-2 vs. MIN
33 11.6 ATL-1 vs. KC
34 11.3 DET-2 🌐 NE
35 11.2 BAL-1 vs. LAC
36 11.1 LV-1 vs. SEA
37 11.1 PIT-1 @ CIN
38 11.0 NYG-1 vs. WAS
39 11.0 NE-1 🌐 DET
40 11.0 LV-1 vs. SEA
41 11.0 CAR-2 @ NO
42 10.9 SF-1 @ DAL
43 9.7 LAR-2 @ ARI
44 9.7 CLE-1 vs. HOU
45 9.7 WAS-1 @ NYG
46 9.6 KC-1 @ ATL
47 9.6 NYJ-1 vs. BUF
48 9.5 NYG-1 vs. WAS
49 9.5 DAL-2 vs. SF
50 9.3 DAL-3 vs. SF
51 9.3 PIT-2 @ CIN
52 9.3 HOU-1 @ CLE
53 9.3 CLE-1 vs. HOU
54 9.1 MIN-2 @ GB
55 9.1 BUF-1 @ NYJ
56 8.9 NO-1 vs. CAR
57 8.8 ARI-1 vs. LAR
58 8.8 SEA-1 @ LV
59 8.3 MIA-1 @ IND
60 8.2 LAC-1 @ BAL
61 8.2 PIT-2 @ CIN
62 8.1 TEN-1 vs. JAC
63 8.0 WAS-1 @ NYG
64 8.0 NO-2 vs. CAR
65 7.9 DET-1 🌐 NE
66 7.8 BUF-2 @ NYJ
67 7.8 CLE-2 vs. HOU
68 7.8 MIN-1 @ GB
69 7.8 MIA-2 @ IND
70 7.6 JAC-2 @ TEN
71 7.6 SF-2 @ DAL
72 7.6 SEA-2 @ LV
73 7.5 SF-1 @ DAL
74 7.5 NO-2 vs. CAR
75 7.5 NYJ-2 vs. BUF
76 7.5 WAS-2 @ NYG
77 7.5 LAR-1 @ ARI
78 7.5 SF-2 @ DAL
79 7.4 TEN-2 vs. JAC
80 7.4 KC-2 @ ATL
81 7.4 SF-3 @ DAL
82 7.4 HOU-2 @ CLE
83 7.4 LAR-1 @ ARI
84 7.4 NE-2 🌐 DET
85 7.3 KC-1 @ ATL
86 7.2 LAR-2 @ ARI
87 7.2 KC-2 @ ATL
88 7.2 MIN-2 @ GB
89 7.2 NE-3 🌐 DET
90 7.2 NYG-2 vs. WAS
91 7.2 NYJ-3 vs. BUF
92 7.2 SF-4 @ DAL
93 7.2 NYJ-2 vs. BUF
94 7.1 LV-1 vs. SEA
95 7.0 JAC-2 @ TEN
96 7.0 ATL-1 vs. KC
97 6.9 IND-1 vs. MIA
98 6.7 CIN-3 vs. PIT
99 6.7 NO-3 vs. CAR
100 6.7 BUF-3 @ NYJ
101 6.6 LAC-1 @ BAL
102 6.6 JAC-3 @ TEN
103 6.6 SEA-2 @ LV
104 6.5 GB-3 vs. MIN
105 6.5 MIA-3 @ IND
106 6.5 NYG-2 vs. WAS
107 6.5 LAC-2 @ BAL
108 6.4 HOU-3 @ CLE
109 6.4 NE-1 🌐 DET
110 6.3 LV-2 vs. SEA
111 6.3 PIT-1 @ CIN
112 6.3 CLE-2 vs. HOU
113 6.3 NE-4 🌐 DET
114 6.3 ATL-2 vs. KC
115 6.3 DET-3 🌐 NE
116 6.3 MIN-1 @ GB
117 6.2 NYG-3 vs. WAS
118 6.2 HOU-4 @ CLE
119 6.2 BUF-1 @ NYJ
120 6.2 LAR-3 @ ARI
121 6.2 WAS-3 @ NYG
122 6.2 WAS-4 @ NYG
123 6.0 GB-1 vs. MIN
124 6.0 HOU-2 @ CLE
125 5.9 IND-2 vs. MIA
126 5.8 GB-2 vs. MIN
127 5.8 SEA-3 @ LV
128 5.7 CLE-1 vs. HOU
129 5.7 GB-1 vs. MIN
130 5.7 JAC-1 @ TEN
131 5.7 SEA-4 @ LV
132 5.7 JAC-4 @ TEN
133 5.6 ARI-1 vs. LAR
134 5.6 CLE-3 vs. HOU
135 5.6 CAR-1 @ NO
136 5.6 WAS-2 @ NYG
137 5.5 CIN-2 vs. PIT
138 5.5 LV-2 vs. SEA
139 5.5 BAL-2 vs. LAC
140 5.5 ARI-2 vs. LAR
141 5.5 IND-2 vs. MIA
142 5.5 LAR-2 @ ARI
143 5.4 BAL-3 vs. LAC
144 5.3 NO-4 vs. CAR
145 5.3 ATL-3 vs. KC
146 5.3 CIN-4 vs. PIT
147 5.2 IND-3 vs. MIA
148 5.2 BAL-2 vs. LAC
149 5.2 CIN-1 vs. PIT
150 5.2 ARI-2 vs. LAR
151 5.2 KC-3 @ ATL
152 5.2 TEN-3 vs. JAC
153 5.1 HOU-5 @ CLE
154 5.0 ATL-4 vs. KC
155 5.0 LAC-2 @ BAL
156 5.0 TEN-4 vs. JAC
157 4.9 CAR-3 @ NO
158 4.8 LAC-3 @ BAL
159 4.8 MIA-1 @ IND
160 4.8 NO-1 vs. CAR
161 4.7 DET-2 🌐 NE
162 4.5 PIT-2 @ CIN
163 4.5 NE-2 🌐 DET
164 4.4 SEA-1 @ LV
165 4.4 LV-2 vs. SEA
166 4.2 DAL-2 vs. SF
167 3.9 GB-3 vs. MIN
168 3.8 BUF-2 @ NYJ
169 3.8 NO-3 vs. CAR
170 3.8 LAC-1 @ BAL
171 3.7 WAS-1 @ NYG
172 3.5 HOU-1 @ CLE
173 3.5 DAL-1 vs. SF
174 3.4 MIA-2 @ IND
175 3.4 TEN-2 vs. JAC
176 3.4 NE-2 🌐 DET
177 3.4 BUF-3 @ NYJ
178 3.4 MIA-3 @ IND
179 3.3 SEA-3 @ LV
180 3.3 LAC-2 @ BAL

Refreshed 16 minutes ago

Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts. Fantasy scores are projected for QB, D/ST, and Kicker, and Strength of Schedule charts project fantasy point deviations for RB, WR, and TE.

D/STs

Player/Team 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Ravens 8.9 5.8 4.3 - 6.7 5.2 7.8 4.2 6.1
Titans 3.6 3.6 3.8 5.4 3.8 6.3 4.7 4.6 4.5

Quarterbacks

Player/Team 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Dak Prescott | DAL 19.2 22.0 18.2 13.6 - 15.5 17.6 18.3 17.8
Carson Beck | ARI 9.6 11.9 13.6 14.7 - 16.0 14.9 16.1 13.8

Kickers

Player/Team 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Chad Ryland | ARI 7.5 5.2 8.4 11.2 - 9.1 9.1 8.5 8.5
Jake Elliott | PHI - 7.3 7.9 10.2 9.5 8.2 5.6 7.4 8.0

The range of possible outcomes is a truly key consideration for anyone serious about strategizing their lineups. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.

Rams Similar historical matchups

Matchup Year Wk Result
Similar Vikings vs Broncos 2019 11 3
Similar Jets vs Bills 2018 10 -4
Boom Cowboys @ Panthers 2023 11 22
Bust Jets vs Bills 2018 10 -4

This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities: Where on the field the play is likely to stop. Get unique visual insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.

Cam Little

  • Less likely to stall upfield. and more likely to kick near the endzone
  • Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range
  • Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.

How to read this chart

Bar charts visualize how points get made. These help you see how each score component is expected, relative to the league average.

QB

Bills Week 10
Josh Allen

D/ST

Rams Week 10