Predictive insights with statistical integrity

At Subvertadown, a track record of predictive accuracy against other rankings is just the starting point.

What followers here really appreciate is the deeper analysis that helps them take ownership of their decisions. Intuitive visualizations reveal the range of outcomes they can expect, grounded in historical data. Predictive models break down the components of fantasy scores, helping them understand the real drivers—and where points are likely to come from. Forward-looking projections help them plan ahead, weigh their options, and make smarter roster moves. And specialized tools, like D/ST Pairing, help them make better use of their bench space.

It's about extracting clearer, more actionable insights from analysis that's otherwise too complex— so you can make informed decisions with greater confidence, rather than relying on rankings alone.

Whether you're discovering my work through JJ Zachariason’s LateRound, where I provide kicker rankings, or through word-of-mouth, you're probably here because you trust in the value of meaningful predictive signals, to make better-informed fantasy decisions.

The live visualizations featured on this page demonstrate just some of the deeper analysis that "goes beyond just rankings": guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, and visuals that depict actual historical "range of outcomes" for similar matchups.

Rankings for Fantasy Football Flex Players

Weekly RB, WR, and TE rankings for 0.5 PPR. · Week 6

Position
Rankings for Fantasy Football Flex Players
Rank Player Tm Matchup Proj
1 ATL-1 vs. CHI 15.3
2 LAR-1 vs. ARI 15.3
3 SF-1 vs. WAS 14.9
4 KC-1 vs. LAC 14.6
5 IND-1 vs. TEN 14.6
6 CAR-1 @ PHI 14.1
7 BAL-1 @ CLE 14.1
8 BUF-1 @ LV 13.8
9 LAR-1 vs. ARI 13.8
10 SF-1 vs. WAS 13.8
11 CHI-1 @ ATL 13.8
12 DAL-1 @ GB 13.7
13 DAL-1 @ GB 13.4
14 SEA-1 @ DEN 13.4
15 SF-1 vs. WAS 13.3
16 ATL-1 vs. CHI 13.3
17 LV-1 vs. BUF 12.9
18 LV-1 vs. BUF 12.4
19 GB-1 vs. DAL 12.0
20 ARI-1 @ LAR 11.8
21 IND-1 vs. TEN 11.7
22 NO-1 @ NYG 11.3
23 NE-1 vs. NYJ 11.2
24 PIT-1 @ TB 11.2
25 JAC-1 @ HOU 11.1
26 HOU-1 @ JAC 10.9
27 BAL-1 @ CLE 10.9
28 NYJ-1 @ NE 10.9
29 PHI-1 vs. CAR 10.9
30 NYG-1 vs. NO 10.8
31 CAR-1 @ PHI 10.7
32 KC-1 vs. LAC 10.6
33 LAR-2 vs. ARI 10.6
34 DAL-2 @ GB 10.6
35 GB-2 vs. DAL 10.6
36 NYG-1 vs. NO 9.9
37 NYJ-1 @ NE 9.9
38 ARI-1 @ LAR 9.7
39 GB-1 vs. DAL 9.7
40 CAR-2 @ PHI 9.7
41 SEA-1 @ DEN 9.7
42 ARI-1 @ LAR 9.7
43 KC-1 vs. LAC 9.7
44 JAC-1 @ HOU 9.7
45 GB-1 vs. DAL 9.6
46 NYG-1 vs. NO 9.6
47 CLE-1 vs. BAL 9.4
48 TB-1 vs. PIT 9.4
49 IND-1 vs. TEN 9.3
50 WAS-1 @ SF 9.2
51 PIT-1 @ TB 9.0
52 CHI-1 @ ATL 9.0
53 PHI-1 vs. CAR 8.9
54 WAS-2 @ SF 8.7
55 DEN-1 vs. SEA 8.7
56 KC-2 vs. LAC 8.6
57 TEN-1 @ IND 8.6
58 NE-1 vs. NYJ 8.5
59 LAC-1 @ KC 8.5
60 NE-2 vs. NYJ 8.5
61 CLE-1 vs. BAL 8.5
62 PHI-1 vs. CAR 8.5
63 BUF-1 @ LV 8.5
64 TEN-2 @ IND 8.4
65 IND-2 vs. TEN 8.4
66 LAR-1 vs. ARI 8.4
67 NO-2 @ NYG 8.4
68 NE-1 vs. NYJ 8.2
69 CAR-1 @ PHI 8.2
70 HOU-1 @ JAC 8.2
71 JAC-2 @ HOU 8.2
72 NO-1 @ NYG 8.2
73 CHI-1 @ ATL 8.1
74 WAS-1 @ SF 8.0
75 DEN-1 vs. SEA 8.0
76 PIT-2 @ TB 7.8
77 DEN-2 vs. SEA 7.7
78 LAR-2 vs. ARI 7.7
79 TEN-1 @ IND 7.6
80 ATL-1 vs. CHI 7.6
81 JAC-1 @ HOU 7.6
82 SF-2 vs. WAS 7.6
83 LAC-1 @ KC 7.6
84 BUF-1 @ LV 7.5
85 LV-1 vs. BUF 7.5
86 CLE-1 vs. BAL 7.4
87 TB-1 vs. PIT 7.3
88 PIT-1 @ TB 7.1
89 BAL-1 @ CLE 6.9
90 NE-3 vs. NYJ 6.9
91 CHI-2 @ ATL 6.9
92 DEN-2 vs. SEA 6.9
93 LAC-1 @ KC 6.8
94 LV-2 vs. BUF 6.8
95 IND-3 vs. TEN 6.7
96 BUF-2 @ LV 6.7
97 SF-3 vs. WAS 6.6
98 WAS-1 @ SF 6.6
99 BUF-3 @ LV 6.5
100 ARI-2 @ LAR 6.5
101 TB-1 vs. PIT 6.5
102 DAL-1 @ GB 6.5
103 HOU-2 @ JAC 6.4
104 CLE-2 vs. BAL 6.4
105 DAL-3 @ GB 6.4
106 PIT-2 @ TB 6.3
107 SEA-1 @ DEN 6.3
108 NE-4 vs. NYJ 6.2
109 NO-1 @ NYG 6.2
110 PHI-2 vs. CAR 6.1
111 CHI-3 @ ATL 6.1
112 ATL-2 vs. CHI 6.0
113 HOU-1 @ JAC 5.9
114 NE-5 vs. NYJ 5.8
115 LAR-2 vs. ARI 5.8
116 ATL-2 vs. CHI 5.7
117 NO-2 @ NYG 5.7
118 DEN-1 vs. SEA 5.6
119 TEN-1 @ IND 5.6
120 LV-2 vs. BUF 5.5
121 KC-3 vs. LAC 5.5
122 SEA-2 @ DEN 5.5
123 WAS-3 @ SF 5.4
124 NYG-2 vs. NO 5.1
125 JAC-3 @ HOU 5.1
126 NYJ-2 @ NE 5.1
127 LV-2 vs. BUF 5.0
128 SEA-2 @ DEN 5.0
129 LAC-2 @ KC 5.0
130 NO-3 @ NYG 4.9
131 HOU-3 @ JAC 4.9
132 TEN-2 @ IND 4.9
133 KC-2 vs. LAC 4.9
134 GB-2 vs. DAL 4.7
135 WAS-2 @ SF 4.7
136 JAC-2 @ HOU 4.7
137 TB-2 vs. PIT 4.7
138 PIT-2 @ TB 4.6
139 BAL-2 @ CLE 4.5
140 TB-2 vs. PIT 4.4
141 TEN-3 @ IND 4.4
142 LAR-3 vs. ARI 4.4
143 SEA-3 @ DEN 4.4
144 HOU-4 @ JAC 4.4
145 PHI-3 vs. CAR 4.1
146 GB-3 vs. DAL 4.1
147 TB-3 vs. PIT 4.1
148 CLE-3 vs. BAL 4.1
149 HOU-5 @ JAC 4.1
150 DEN-3 vs. SEA 4.1
151 KC-4 vs. LAC 4.0
152 CLE-4 vs. BAL 4.0
153 NYJ-3 @ NE 4.0
154 LAC-2 @ KC 4.0
155 WAS-4 @ SF 4.0
156 PHI-4 vs. CAR 4.0
157 ATL-3 vs. CHI 4.0
158 CHI-4 @ ATL 4.0
159 SF-2 vs. WAS 3.9
160 IND-4 vs. TEN 3.9
161 LAC-3 @ KC 3.9
162 LAR-4 vs. ARI 3.9
163 JAC-4 @ HOU 3.9
164 BUF-4 @ LV 3.9
165 NYG-2 vs. NO 3.7
166 CHI-2 @ ATL 3.6
167 BAL-2 @ CLE 3.5
168 NYJ-2 @ NE 3.4
169 DAL-2 @ GB 3.1
170 BUF-2 @ LV 3.1
171 IND-2 vs. TEN 3.1
172 TB-3 vs. PIT 3.1
173 NE-2 vs. NYJ 3.0
174 BUF-3 @ LV 3.0
175 NO-3 @ NYG 2.9
176 CLE-2 vs. BAL 2.9
177 NYG-3 vs. NO 2.9
178 GB-3 vs. DAL 2.9
179 NE-3 vs. NYJ 2.5
180 SF-3 vs. WAS 0.6

Refreshed 57 minutes ago

Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts. Fantasy scores are projected for QB, D/ST, and Kicker, and Strength of Schedule charts project fantasy point deviations for RB, WR, and TE.

D/STs

Player/Team 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Patriots 10.8 5.0 8.3 6.4 5.1 - 6.6 5.2 6.6 6.0 8.1 5.7 6.7
Chiefs 9.4 5.8 6.2 9.2 6.6 7.7 4.6 3.6 5.9 6.3 4.6 5.9 6.3

Quarterbacks

Player/Team 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Josh Allen | BUF 25.2 - 21.1 18.2 18.6 19.3 20.5 18.4 19.8 21.4 19.8 19.1 20.1
Brock Purdy | SF 21.6 20.6 - 20.1 18.6 17.8 17.3 18.6 17.4 18.4 16.8 18.0 18.7

This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities: Where on the field the play is likely to stop. Get unique visual insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.

Brandon Aubrey

  • Not significantly different from the average kicker situation.
  • Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range
  • Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.

How to read this chart

The range of possible outcomes is a truly key consideration for anyone serious about strategizing their lineups. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.

Patriots Similar historical matchups

Matchup Year Wk Result
Similar Patriots @ Jets 2021 2 16
Similar Giants vs 49ers 2015 5 1
Boom Patriots @ Jets 2021 2 16
Bust Seahawks @ Rams 2014 7 0