Week 4
49ers
Similar historical matchups
Matchup | Year | Wk | Result |
---|---|---|---|
Eagles @ Texans | 2022 | 9 | 8 |
Eagles vs Jets | 2019 | 5 | 35 |
Packers vs Patriots | 2022 | 4 | 8 |
49ers @ Seahawks | 2012 | 7 | 10 |
Seahawks vs Bears | 2015 | 3 | 16 |
Mean historical result:
15.4
Why so high?
Chiefs
Similar historical matchups
Matchup | Year | Wk | Result |
---|---|---|---|
Colts vs Texans | 2021 | 6 | 11 |
Bengals vs Browns | 2012 | 2 | 7 |
Packers vs Bears | 2022 | 2 | 10 |
Vikings @ Cardinals | 2018 | 6 | 13 |
Seahawks vs Lions | 2015 | 4 | 8 |
Mean historical result:
9.8
Why so high?
Eagles
Similar historical matchups
Matchup | Year | Wk | Result |
---|---|---|---|
Colts @ Jaguars | 2013 | 4 | 22 |
Steelers vs Browns | 2014 | 1 | 2 |
Texans vs Buccaneers | 2015 | 3 | 5 |
Packers @ Bills | 2018 | 4 | 21 |
Falcons vs Cardinals | 2012 | 11 | 14 |
Mean historical result:
12.8
Why so high?
Browns
Similar historical matchups
Matchup | Year | Wk | Result |
---|---|---|---|
Jaguars @ Cowboys | 2018 | 6 | -1 |
49ers vs Cardinals | 2020 | 1 | 1 |
Jets vs Bills | 2013 | 3 | 8 |
Broncos @ Chargers | 2016 | 8 | 18 |
Lions vs Bills | 2014 | 5 | 11 |
Mean historical result:
7.4
Why so high?
Ravens
Similar historical matchups
Matchup | Year | Wk | Result |
---|---|---|---|
Bengals @ Jets | 2022 | 3 | 15 |
Ravens @ 49ers | 2015 | 6 | 2 |
Ravens @ Lions | 2021 | 3 | 5 |
Packers @ Lions | 2016 | 3 | 2 |
Broncos vs Titans | 2020 | 1 | 1 |
Mean historical result:
5.0
Why so high?
Why so low?
Cowboys
Similar historical matchups
Matchup | Year | Wk | Result |
---|---|---|---|
Panthers vs Texans | 2015 | 2 | 4 |
Buccaneers vs Bears | 2017 | 2 | 18 |
Chargers vs Browns | 2015 | 4 | 3 |
Colts @ Broncos | 2019 | 8 | 8 |
Giants vs Packers | 2013 | 11 | 14 |
Mean historical result:
9.4
Why so high?
Bengals
Similar historical matchups
Matchup | Year | Wk | Result |
---|---|---|---|
Buccaneers vs Jaguars | 2015 | 5 | 15 |
Colts vs Jaguars | 2015 | 4 | 1 |
Broncos vs Titans | 2020 | 1 | 1 |
Saints @ Panthers | 2022 | 3 | 6 |
49ers @ Lions | 2021 | 1 | 7 |
Mean historical result:
6.0
Why so high?
Why so low?
Saints
Similar historical matchups
Matchup | Year | Wk | Result |
---|---|---|---|
Dolphins @ Raiders | 2014 | 4 | 17 |
Saints vs Colts | 2019 | 15 | 6 |
Steelers vs Titans | 2011 | 5 | 6 |
Jaguars @ Jets | 2017 | 4 | 10 |
Ravens vs Browns | 2015 | 5 | -3 |
Mean historical result:
7.2
Why so high?
Refreshed 12 minutes ago
Week 4
Josh Allen | BUF
24.4Jalen Hurts | PHI
22.7Justin Fields | CHI
22.1Daniel Jones | NYG
20.7Patrick Mahomes | KC
19.3Anthony Richardson | IND
19.2Lamar Jackson | BAL
18.4Brock Purdy | SF
18.2Justin Herbert | LAC
17.8Dak Prescott | DAL
17.8Trevor Lawrence | JAC
17.5Kirk Cousins | MIN
17.0Refreshed 22 minutes ago
Week 4 Tier
Brandon Aubrey | DAL
Why so high?
Brandon McManus | JAC
Why so high?
Why so low?
Brett Maher | LAR
Why so high?
Chase McLaughlin | TB
Why so high?
Why so low?
Chris Boswell | PIT
Why so high?
Why so low?
Eddy Pineiro | CAR
Why so high?
Why so low?
Greg Joseph | MIN
Why so high?
Why so low?
Ka'imi Fairbairn | HOU
Why so high?
Why so low?
Refreshed 22 minutes ago
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How to Use , Survivor PoolsBy Subvertadown
Tagged under
Current SeasonReddit post for D/ST discussion Try to give it visibility if you guys like having the discussions— and don’t, if you don’t.
Last week actually was the most predictable week yet, statistically speaking…
…although you wouldn’t have felt that with the Cowboys D/ST or by seeing McManus miss a couple FGs.
Nevertheless, most positions exceeded normal predictability levels. Only RB and Kicker were below normal accuracy.
We expected this, based on the lopsided contests. Beware that weeks 4 and 5 will not be quite as obvious.
Don’t forget to play the Pick6×6 game!
Two leaders have 21 points (HiggsBoson) and 20 points (firebirdxvi).
Jobs well done, but the scores are low enough that anyone could overtake, anytime.
And yes, the game is yielding decent advice for your D/ST picks, as shared on Saturdays.
Betting lines almost got a taste of negative returns in week 3, until MNF lines came through, for a weekly net of 8%.
The advice is still to administer caution, as always, despite 3 positive weeks in a row. Season is at 56% of a single weekly bet amount— so you could almost even pack up. Stick with the conservative approach, and remember any given week could possibly conceivably yield more than 50% loss.
The current week 4 picks are much less obvious. So take a look, and especially have any eye towards week 5 for D/ST.
Good luck! And here again is the video of Free Stuff, to make sure you know about all the features on this site:
/Subvertadown