Predictive insights with statistical integrity

My fantasy rankings and accuracy reports get too much of the attention.

What people really stay for is a shared love of extracting predictive insights. We don’t just want rankings. We want to understand the real drivers. We want confidence in the reasoning behind our fantasy decisions.

At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.

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Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.

Last week was wild-- Let's get onto Week 2! KANSAS CITY, MO - SEPTEMBER 14: Kansas City Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III (9) runs the ball during the first half against the Denver Broncos on September 14th, 2026 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire)

Last week was wild-- Let's get onto Week 2!

Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts.

Player/Team 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Buccaneers 10.2 7.2 5.8 1.4 6.5 4.7 6.8 2.4 - 2.9 6.8 5.9 4.6 5.7 5.5 3.9 5.4
49ers 9.3 6.8 7.3 5.1 7.7 7.2 - 6.9 3.6 7.5 5.8 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.5 6.4 6.1

Player/Team 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Josh Allen | BUF 25.1 20.1 18.1 17.2 19.3 - 17.5 17.2 16.5 17.3 17.6 16.5 17.2 17.9 17.6 17.1 18.2
Caleb Williams | CHI 20.1 20.5 21.3 19.2 20.7 19.7 16.7 20.1 - 20.4 20.9 19.7 19.2 18.0 18.3 19.6 19.6

Player/Team 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Evan McPherson | CIN 9.9 7.7 7.7 8.0 - 7.5 8.0 8.6 7.8 7.8 7.2 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.9 7.5 8.0
Eddy Pineiro | SF 9.8 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.3 9.6 - 8.4 8.1 8.7 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 8.0 8.0 8.5

Members here mostly care what’s behind the numbers: rigorous models. But the website goes further by also interpreting the reasons behind each recommendation. So try hovering over the tool-tips for deeper explanations, to help you reason your weekly pick.

Quarterbacks

Wk 2 Proj. Stats
Player Matchup Wk 2 Wk 3 Err. PaY RuY PTD Int.
Josh Allen BUF vs. DET 25.1 20.1 6.6 276 32 2.2 0.8
Lamar Jackson BAL vs. NO 20.1 20.2 6.0 215 36 1.7 0.5

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D/STs

Wk 2 Proj. Stats
Team Wk 2 Wk 2 Trend Wk 3 Hold? Err.
Buccaneers vs. Browns 10.2 7.2 - 4.9
49ers vs. Dolphins 9.3 6.8 4.9

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Kickers

Wk 2 Proj. Risk
Player Matchup Wk 2 Wk 3
Hold? 		Err. 4thD Missed Ceil Fl DD% LD% FG XP
Impl. score
Evan McPherson CIN @ HOU 9.9 7.7 - 3.9 1.3 0.3 14.0 6.6 42% 30% 1.9 2.2 21.8
Eddy Pineiro SF vs. MIA 9.8 8.6 Y 3.6 0.9 0.3 13.7 6.8 41% 28% 1.9 3 28.5

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‘Strength of Schedule (SoS) forecasts the difficulty for a team’s, for future weeks. These charts are based on multi-dimensional predictive models, which makes them much more reliable than plain “fantasy points allowed” that you might find elsewhere, if you’re making your roster decisions based on opponents.

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Running Backs

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
49ers 22.0 -0.1 2.4 -0.9 1.5 -3.4 -0.7 -0.7 - -1.1 0.4 -0.2 -3.0 -1.4 -0.2 0.0 -2.8 -0.3 -0.7
Chiefs 21.5 0.8 2.0 1.5 -1.3 - 0.9 -3.1 1.1 -1.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -2.6 -1.8 -0.2 0.7 -0.3

Wide Receivers

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Bills 27.6 -0.2 4.1 -1.0 -1.2 -2.8 0.3 - 0.2 -2.5 -3.3 -0.7 -2.2 -3.1 -1.0 2.0 -1.6 -2.0 -1.0
Cowboys 33.7 2.4 3.2 1.3 2.7 2.6 -0.2 -5.8 3.7 1.7 2.6 2.5 3.6 -6.5 - 2.2 2.3 4.1 1.3

Tight Ends

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Cowboys 9.6 2.0 3.5 -0.2 1.8 2.9 1.0 -2.6 1.2 0.0 -1.8 1.4 -0.5 -1.4 - -1.2 -0.9 -0.4 0.2
Commanders 9.7 0.3 3.4 -0.9 0.3 -1.7 -3.3 - -1.8 -1.6 -1.9 -2.3 0.6 -0.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 -2.4 -0.6

Betting lines: A portfolio of suggested likely betting options, among spreads and O/Us. In addition to scaling the level of each wager, it also suggests whether to bet near opening or closing.

Bets for Open

Spreads

Original Spreads (Tuesday) and Updates Current Spreads (if placed after Tuesday)
Orig. Pick Orig. Line Opponent Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current
BillsTNF -4.5 Lions $7 - - -5.6 -7.2 $7

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O/U

Original O/U (Tuesday) and Updates Current O/U (if placed after Tuesday)
Home Away Orig. Pick Orig. Line Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current
BillsTNF Lions U 53.5 $7 - - 54.7 52.0 $7

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Preview how I turn stats into useful reasoning! The pros-and-cons lists have extracted statistical drivers from key data. This can supplement your kicker choices, no matter what rankings you use!

Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.

Pros Cons
Eddy Pineiro SF vs. MIA
  • highest chance of winning
  • 5th best usage / less aggressive coaching
  • 4th highest chance big plays allowed
Evan McPherson CIN @ HOU
  • 3rd highest chance offense gains lead
  • 4th best usage / less aggressive coaching
  • lowest in passing progress

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View all kickers for this week

We’re the only source with distinct models supporting different settings: a dedicated D/ST model for ESPN settings, and a dedicated kicker model for Decimal scoring.

Live Week 2 projections

Kicker

Player Standard Decimal
Evan McPherson | CIN 9.9 10.1

D/ST

Team ESPN Yahoo! YDB
Buccaneers 10.2 9.6 10.3
49ers 9.3 9.2 9.5

Score expectations for all 32 teams, trained to account for all team aspects on both sides of the ball. QBs, D/STs, and Kickers.

Quarterback

Week 2

Josh Allen | BUF

25.1

Lamar Jackson | BAL

20.1

Caleb Williams | CHI

20.1

Brock Purdy | SF

19.9

Dak Prescott | DAL

19.2

Jalen Hurts | PHI

19.0
View Full Projections

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This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities! Get unique insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.

Evan McPherson

  • More kicking opportunities overall, at all distances.
  • Less likely to take long kicks, despite drives stopping upfield.

How to read this chart

It’s not only the projection that matters! It’s key to consider the range of possible outcomes. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.

Buccaneers Similar historical matchups

Matchup Year Wk Result
Similar Texans vs Titans 2025 4 11
Similar Eagles vs Commanders 2023 4 3
Boom Patriots vs Browns 2019 8 20
Bust Browns vs Jets 2022 2 2

Specialized advice for Survivor, based on my own game score models—and my own optimization algorithm. Covers 3 surviving pathways all season!

Path 3A

Week Team
1 DET
2 BAL
3 LAR
4 CHI
5 JAC
6 BUF
7 SF
8 CIN
9 SEA
10 IND
11 DAL
12 TB
13 DEN
14 NE
15 KC
16 NYJ
17 LAC
Longevity 3.3

Path 3B

Week Team
1 DET
2 KC
3 NYG
4 BAL
5 JAC
6 LAR
7 NYJ
8 CIN
9 SF
10 IND
11 BUF
12 DAL
13 DEN
14 CHI
15 GB
16 PIT
17 NE
Longevity 3.3