Predictive insights with statistical integrity

My fantasy rankings and accuracy reports get too much of the attention.

What people really stay for is a shared love of extracting predictive insights. We don’t just want rankings. We want to understand the real drivers. We want confidence in the reasoning behind our fantasy decisions.

At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.

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Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.

Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts.

Player/Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Jaguars 9.0 2.6 3.3 4.2 4.4 4.5 - 5.1 3.4 6.0 4.2 6.9 4.6 7.0 4.5 3.5 5.0 4.9
Chargers 8.7 7.9 3.5 4.3 4.4 3.5 - 2.7 5.5 5.5 6.6 4.8 4.3 6.8 3.8 6.8 4.3 5.2

Player/Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Joe Burrow | CIN 23.5 17.9 16.5 19.5 17.1 - 16.9 17.8 19.4 16.7 15.7 18.1 16.3 17.6 17.1 17.9 17.7 17.8
Lamar Jackson | BAL 22.8 21.3 21.5 20.5 20.9 17.8 19.2 18.9 20.0 19.0 19.4 18.4 - 19.3 17.4 18.0 18.1 19.5

Player/Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Cameron Dicker | LAC 9.8 9.6 7.9 7.4 8.8 7.2 - 7.6 8.3 7.1 9.2 8.8 8.1 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.6 8.4
Jake Bates | DET 9.4 6.2 9.3 7.5 9.1 - 8.1 8.5 8.0 6.8 8.0 8.5 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.3 7.7 8.2

Members here mostly care what’s behind the numbers: rigorous models. But the website goes further by also interpreting the reasons behind each recommendation. So try hovering over the tool-tips for deeper explanations, to help you reason your weekly pick.

Quarterbacks

Wk 1 Proj. Stats
Player Matchup Wk 1 Wk 2 Err. PaY RuY PTD Int.
Joe Burrow CIN vs. TB 23.5 17.9 6.3 253 39 2.0 0.8
Lamar Jackson BAL @ IND 22.8 21.3 6.6 240 42 2.0 0.7

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D/STs

Wk 1 Proj. Stats
Team Wk 1 Wk 1 Trend Wk 2 Hold? Err.
Jaguars vs. Browns 9.0 2.6 - 5.0
Chargers vs. Cardinals 8.7 7.9 - 5.0

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Kickers

Wk 1 Proj. Risk
Player Matchup Wk 1 Wk 2
Hold? 		Err. 4thD Missed Ceil Fl DD% LD% FG XP
Impl. score
Cameron Dicker LAC vs. ARI 9.8 9.6 Y 3.1 0.7 0.4 13.3 7.0 47% 29% 1.8 2.9 28.3
Jake Bates DET vs. NO 9.4 6.2 Y 3.6 1.0 0.4 13.3 6.4 39% 30% 1.7 2.8 27.7

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‘Strength of Schedule (SoS) forecasts the difficulty for a team’s, for future weeks. These charts are based on multi-dimensional predictive models, which makes them much more reliable than plain “fantasy points allowed” that you might find elsewhere, if you’re making your roster decisions based on opponents.

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Running Backs

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Chargers 19.3 1.6 2.8 1.8 0.5 1.2 2.2 -0.1 - 1.2 0.6 0.0 1.7 2.5 -0.5 0.6 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.2
Lions 22.4 -0.2 1.6 -1.3 0.7 -1.7 0.4 - 1.6 1.8 0.1 -0.5 -1.1 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 -0.6 -0.5 0.2

Wide Receivers

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Lions 31.4 0.5 4.2 -1.8 2.3 -2.6 -0.1 - 3.2 3.3 -2.0 0.0 1.1 3.4 1.8 1.2 1.2 -2.5 -1.0 0.7
Chargers 29.3 3.0 3.9 3.4 1.3 3.2 6.4 1.7 - 4.7 3.8 -2.5 4.2 6.4 1.0 1.4 5.0 0.6 6.0 3.2

Tight Ends

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Chargers 8.8 1.0 1.7 1.4 0.3 0.5 1.5 0.1 - 1.1 1.0 -0.2 1.2 1.7 -0.2 0.8 1.5 0.5 1.5 0.9
Lions 8.6 -0.1 1.2 -0.8 0.5 -1.0 0.5 - 0.9 1.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.5 0.2

Betting lines: A portfolio of suggested likely betting options, among spreads and O/Us. In addition to scaling the level of each wager, it also suggests whether to bet near opening or closing.

Bets for Open

Spreads

Original Spreads (Tuesday) and Updates Current Spreads (if placed after Tuesday)
Orig. Pick Orig. Line Opponent Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current
Bills -1.5 Texans $7 - - -1.5 -2.3 $7

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O/U

Original O/U (Tuesday) and Updates Current O/U (if placed after Tuesday)
Home Away Orig. Pick Orig. Line Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current
Giants Cowboys U 48.5 $8 - - 48.5 46.4 $8

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Preview how I turn stats into useful reasoning! The pros-and-cons lists have extracted statistical drivers from key data. This can supplement your kicker choices, no matter what rankings you use!

Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.

Pros Cons
Cameron Dicker LAC vs. ARI
  • highest chance of winning
  • highest chance offense gains lead
  • highest chance big plays allowed
Jake Bates DET vs. NO
  • 3rd highest chance of winning
  • best passing progress
  • 6th least team kicker usage

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View all kickers for this week

D/ST scores are crowd-sourced from your votes, in the D/ST Pick6x6 contest.

D/ST based on votes

Week 1

Broncos * vs. MIA

9.6

Cardinals * vs. DEN

9.1

Commanders * vs. ARI

9.0

Steelers * vs. ATL

8.8

Eagles * vs. NYJ

8.6

Jaguars * vs. CLE

8.1
* Indicates Pick 6x6 crowd-sourced projection.
View Full Projections

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Score expectations for all 32 teams, trained to account for all team aspects on both sides of the ball. QBs, D/STs, and Kickers.

Quarterback

Week 1

Joe Burrow | CIN

23.5

Lamar Jackson | BAL

22.8

Justin Herbert | LAC

21.1

Jalen Hurts | PHI

20.3

Jared Goff | DET

19.5

Josh Allen | BUF

19.1
View Full Projections

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This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities! Get unique insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.

Cameron Dicker

  • Less likely to stall upfield. and more likely to kick near the endzone
  • Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range
  • Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.

How to read this chart

It’s not only the projection that matters! It’s key to consider the range of possible outcomes. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.

Broncos Similar historical matchups

Matchup Year Wk Result
Similar Bears vs Vikings 2025 1 11
Similar Texans @ Seahawks 2025 7 15
Boom Lions @ Giants 2017 2 17
Bust Titans vs Jets 2024 2 3

Specialized advice for Survivor, based on my own game score models—and my own optimization algorithm. Covers 3 surviving pathways all season!

Path 3A

Week Team
1 JAC
2 SF
3 TB
4 BAL
5 NE
6 LAR
7 DEN
8 DAL
9 SEA
10 IND
11 KC
12 WAS
13 CIN
14 LAC
15 HOU
16 CHI
17 NYJ
Longevity 3.5

Path 3B

Week Team
1 CIN
2 TB
3 SF
4 NYG
5 NE
6 LAR
7 DEN
8 DAL
9 SEA
10 IND
11 KC
12 WAS
13 HOU
14 LAC
15 GB
16 BAL
17 BUF
Longevity 3.3