Predictive insights with statistical integrity

My fantasy rankings and accuracy reports get too much of the attention.

What people really stay for is a shared love of extracting predictive insights. We don’t just want rankings. We want to understand the real drivers. We want confidence in the reasoning behind our fantasy decisions.

At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.

Subscribe

Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.

TapThatDraft: Easy Starter Guide | Quick Steps to Get Your "Hold-My-BeerSheets" FOXBOROUGH, MA - JUNE 10: A.J. Brown #1 of the New England Patriots grabs a pass during New England Patriots Minicamp on June 10, 2026, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

TapThatDraft: Easy Starter Guide | Quick Steps to Get Your "Hold-My-BeerSheets"

Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts.

Player/Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Jaguars 9.0 2.6 3.3 3.1 4.4 4.5 - 5.1 3.4 6.0 4.2 6.9 4.6 7.0 4.5 3.5 5.0 4.8
Chargers 8.7 7.9 3.5 4.3 4.4 3.5 - 2.7 5.5 5.5 6.6 4.8 4.3 6.8 3.8 6.8 4.3 5.2

Player/Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Lamar Jackson | BAL 22.8 21.3 21.5 20.5 20.9 17.8 19.5 18.9 20.0 19.0 19.4 18.4 - 19.3 17.4 18.0 18.3 19.6
Justin Herbert | LAC 21.1 20.7 19.2 19.4 20.8 18.5 - 19.0 19.7 17.7 19.8 20.0 18.1 17.8 19.3 18.4 19.1 19.3

Player/Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Cameron Dicker | LAC 9.8 9.6 7.9 7.4 8.8 7.2 - 7.6 8.3 7.1 9.2 8.8 8.1 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.6 8.4
Jake Bates | DET 9.4 6.2 9.3 7.5 9.1 - 8.1 8.5 8.0 6.8 8.0 8.5 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.3 7.7 8.2

Members here mostly care what’s behind the numbers: rigorous models. But the website goes further by also interpreting the reasons behind each recommendation. So try hovering over the tool-tips for deeper explanations, to help you reason your weekly pick.

Quarterbacks

Wk 1 Proj. Stats
Player Matchup Wk 1 Wk 2 Err. PaY RuY PTD Int.
Lamar Jackson BAL @ IND 22.8 21.3 6.6 240 42 2.0 0.7
Justin Herbert LAC vs. ARI 21.1 20.7 6.5 259 31 2.2 0.6

Refreshed 49 minutes ago


D/STs

Wk 1 Proj. Stats
Team Wk 1 Wk 2 Hold? Err.
Jaguars vs. Browns 9.0 2.6 - 5.0
Chargers vs. Cardinals 8.7 7.9 - 5.0

Refreshed 49 minutes ago


Kickers

Wk 1 Proj. Risk
Player Matchup Wk 1 Wk 2
Hold? 		Err. 4thD Missed Ceil Fl DD% LD% FG XP
Impl. score
Cameron Dicker LAC vs. ARI 9.8 9.6 Y 3.1 0.7 0.4 13.3 7.0 47% 29% 1.8 2.9 28.3
Jake Bates DET vs. NO 9.4 6.2 Y 3.6 1.0 0.4 13.3 6.4 39% 30% 1.7 2.8 27.7

Refreshed 49 minutes ago


‘Strength of Schedule (SoS) forecasts the difficulty for a team’s, for future weeks. These charts are based on multi-dimensional predictive models, which makes them much more reliable than plain “fantasy points allowed” that you might find elsewhere, if you’re making your roster decisions based on opponents.

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Running Backs

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Chargers 19.3 1.6 2.8 1.8 0.5 1.2 2.2 -0.1 - 1.2 0.6 0.0 1.7 2.5 -0.5 0.6 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.2
Lions 22.5 -0.2 1.6 -1.3 0.7 -1.7 0.4 - 1.6 1.8 0.1 -0.5 -1.1 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 -0.6 -0.5 0.2

Wide Receivers

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Lions 31.4 0.5 4.2 -1.8 2.3 -2.6 -0.1 - 3.2 3.3 -2.0 0.0 1.1 3.4 1.8 1.2 1.2 -2.5 -1.0 0.7
Chargers 29.3 3.0 3.9 3.4 1.3 3.2 6.4 1.7 - 4.7 3.8 -2.5 4.2 6.4 1.0 1.4 5.0 0.6 6.0 3.2

Tight Ends

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Chargers 8.8 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.5 1.5 0.1 - 1.1 1.0 -0.2 1.2 1.7 -0.2 0.8 1.5 0.5 1.5 0.9
Lions 8.6 -0.1 1.2 -0.8 0.5 -1.0 0.5 - 0.9 1.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.5 0.2

Betting lines: A portfolio of suggested likely betting options, among spreads and O/Us. In addition to scaling the level of each wager, it also suggests whether to bet near opening or closing.

Bets for Open

Spreads

Original Spreads (Tuesday) and Updates Current Spreads (if placed after Tuesday)
Orig. Pick Orig. Line Opponent Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current
Bills -1.5 Texans $7 - - -1.5 -2.3 $7

Refreshed 4 minutes ago

O/U

Original O/U (Tuesday) and Updates Current O/U (if placed after Tuesday)
Home Away Orig. Pick Orig. Line Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current
Giants Cowboys U 48.5 $8 - - 48.5 46.4 $8

Refreshed 4 minutes ago


Preview how I turn stats into useful reasoning! The pros-and-cons lists have extracted statistical drivers from key data. This can supplement your kicker choices, no matter what rankings you use!

Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.

Pros Cons
Cameron Dicker LAC vs. ARI
  • highest chance of winning
  • highest chance offense gains lead
  • highest chance big plays allowed
Jake Bates DET vs. NO
  • 3rd highest chance of winning
  • best passing progress
  • 6th least team kicker usage

Refreshed 49 minutes ago

View all kickers for this week

D/ST scores are crowd-sourced from your votes, in the D/ST Pick6x6 contest.

Score expectations for all 32 teams, trained to account for all team aspects on both sides of the ball. QBs, D/STs, and Kickers.

Quarterback

Week 1

Lamar Jackson | BAL

22.8

Justin Herbert | LAC

21.1

Jalen Hurts | PHI

20.3

Joe Burrow | CIN

20.1

Jared Goff | DET

19.5

Josh Allen | BUF

19.1
View Full Projections

Refreshed 49 minutes ago

This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities! Get unique insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.

Cameron Dicker

  • Less likely to stall upfield. and more likely to kick near the endzone
  • Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range
  • Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.

How to read this chart

Specialized advice for Survivor, based on my own game score models—and my own optimization algorithm. Covers 3 surviving pathways all season!

Path 3A

Week Team
1 JAC
2 SF
3 TB
4 BAL
5 NE
6 LAR
7 DEN
8 DAL
9 SEA
10 IND
11 KC
12 WAS
13 CIN
14 LAC
15 HOU
16 CHI
17 NYJ
Longevity 3.5

Path 3B

Week Team
1 CIN
2 TB
3 SF
4 NYG
5 NE
6 LAR
7 DEN
8 DAL
9 SEA
10 IND
11 KC
12 WAS
13 HOU
14 LAC
15 GB
16 BAL
17 BUF
Longevity 3.3