Predictive insights with statistical integrity
My fantasy rankings and accuracy reports get too much of the attention.
What people really stay for is a shared love of extracting predictive insights. We don’t just want rankings. We want to understand the real drivers. We want confidence in the reasoning behind our fantasy decisions.
At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.
Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.
DETROIT, MI - DECEMBER 04: Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) celebrates a long reception during the Detroit Lions versus the Dallas Cowboys game on Thursday December 4, 2025 at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. (Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire)
Week 15 - 2025
Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts.
| Player/Team |
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16
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AVG
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Playoffs
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| Eagles | Raiders 11.9 | Commanders 4.5 | Bills 2.9 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| Jaguars | Jets 11.5 | Broncos 5.0 | Colts 5.5 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
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| Player/Team Projections represent team QB, so future weeks sometimes refer to a different starting QB. |
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16
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17
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AVG
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Playoffs
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| Josh Allen | BUF | Patriots 22.3 | Browns 21.8 | Eagles 21.9 | 22.0 | 22.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LAR | Lions 21.2 | Seahawks 17.3 | Falcons 16.9 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
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Members here mostly care what’s behind the numbers: rigorous models. But the website goes further by also interpreting the reasons behind each recommendation. So try hovering over the tool-tips for deeper explanations, to help you reason your weekly pick.
Quarterbacks
| Wk 15 Proj. Stats | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player Projections represent team QB, so future weeks sometimes refer to a different starting QB. | Matchup |
Wk 15
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Wk 16
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Wk 17
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Err.
This is an estimate of confidence in the projection. A lower error means less deviation is expected — this should mean a higher floor but also a lower ceiling.
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PaY
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RuY
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PTD
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Int.
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| Josh Allen |
Why so high?
Why so low?
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BUF @ NE | NE 22.3 | Browns 21.8 | Eagles 21.9 | 6.1 | 216 | 43 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Matthew Stafford |
Why so high?
Why so low?
|
LAR vs. DET | DET 21.2 | Seahawks 17.3 | Falcons 16.9 | 6.3 | 284 | 10 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
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D/STs
| Wk 15 Proj. Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Team |
Wk 15
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Wk 16
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Wk 17
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Hold? Is this player/team a likely top-8 hold rest of season? |
Err.
This is an estimate of confidence in the projection. A lower error means less deviation is expected — this should mean a higher floor but also a lower ceiling.
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PA
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YA
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Int.
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Sacks
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FR
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TD
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| Eagles vs. Raiders |
Eagles Week 15Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
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LV 11.9 | - | - | 4.6 | 12.9 | 256 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.19 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jaguars vs. Jets |
Jaguars Week 15Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
Why so low?
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NYJ 11.5 | - | 5.4 | 13.7 | 248 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.19 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Kickers
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Wk 15 Proj. Risk
The headings in the Risk section are useful for explaining the range of outcomes that is likely for each kicker.
Err: The likelihood of results being far from the projected number. 4thD: A modeled estimate of the # of 4th downs that the team will attempt. Missed: A modeled estimate of the # kicks likely to be missed, based on many game factors including weather. Ceil: The likeliest outcome above the main projection. Fl: The likeliest outcome below the main projection. DD%: The modeled probability of the kicker scoring Double Digits (10+). LD%: The modeled probability of the kicker scoring Low Digits (0-5). |
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| Player | Matchup |
Wk 15
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Wk 16
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Wk 17
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Is this player/team a likely top-8 hold rest of season?
Hold? |
Err. This is an estimate of confidence in the projection. A lower error means less deviation is expected — this should mean a higher floor but also a lower ceiling. |
4thD
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Missed
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Ceil
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Fl
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DD%
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LD%
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FG
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XP
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Implied score of the offense, according to betting lines.
Impl. score |
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| Brandon Aubrey | DAL vs. MIN |
Brandon Aubrey
Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
Why so low?
|
MIN 11.4 | Chargers 11.2 | Commanders 9.1 | Y | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 14.9 | 7.8 | 45% | 5% | 2.3 | 3 | 27.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jason Myers | SEA vs. IND |
Jason Myers
Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
Why so low?
|
IND 11.2 | Rams - | Panthers - | Y | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 45% | 5% | 1.9 | 3 | 28.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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‘Strength of Schedule (SoS) forecasts the difficulty for a team’s, for future weeks. These charts are based on multi-dimensional predictive models, which makes them much more reliable than plain “fantasy points allowed” that you might find elsewhere, if you’re making your roster decisions based on opponents.
Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
Running Backs
| Player/Team |
Baseline
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Next 4
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15
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16
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17
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AVG
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Playoffs
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 19.9 | 1.7 | Commanders 2.9 | Vikings 0.1 | Raiders 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Saints | 14.9 | 2.1 | Panthers 1.4 | Jets 2.7 | Titans 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
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Wide Receivers
| Player/Team |
Baseline
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Next 4
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15
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16
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17
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AVG
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Playoffs
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 24.9 | -1.3 | Patriots -0.5 | Browns -2.6 | Eagles -0.7 | -1.3 | -1.3 |
| Raiders | 16.2 | -1.8 | Eagles -3.5 | Texans -3.4 | Giants 1.5 | -1.8 | -1.8 |
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Tight Ends
Betting lines: A portfolio of suggested likely betting options, among spreads and O/Us. In addition to scaling the level of each wager, it also suggests whether to bet near opening or closing.
Bets for Open
Spreads
| Original Spreads (Tuesday) and Updates | Current Spreads (if placed after Tuesday) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orig. Pick | Orig. Line | Opponent | Orig. Bet | Update | Revised Pick? | Curr. Line | Bet Until | Current | |
| BuccaneersTNF | -4.5 | Falcons | $6 | - | - | -5.5 | -6.7 | $6 | |
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O/U
| Original O/U (Tuesday) and Updates | Current O/U (if placed after Tuesday) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | Away | Orig. Pick | Orig. Line | Orig. Bet | Update | Revised Pick? | Curr. Line | Bet Until | Current | |
| BuccaneersTNF | Falcons | U | 44.5 | $6 | - | - | 44.1 | 42.8 | $1 | |
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Preview how I turn stats into useful reasoning! The pros-and-cons lists have extracted statistical drivers from key data. This can supplement your kicker choices, no matter what rankings you use!
Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.
| Pros | Cons | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL vs. MIN |
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| Jason Myers | SEA vs. IND |
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D/ST scores are crowd-sourced from your votes, in the D/ST Pick6x6 contest.
D/ST based on votes
Week 15
Seahawks * vs. CLE
Seahawks Week 15
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Jaguars vs Commanders | 2018 | 15 | 12 |
| Similar | Chiefs vs Raiders | 2024 | 13 | 3 |
| Boom | Jaguars vs Commanders | 2018 | 15 | 12 |
| Bust | Buccaneers @ Panthers | 2022 | 7 | 1 |
Crowd-sourced average from 27 votes
Why so high?
- 4th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 3rd most interceptions thrown by opponent
Why so low?
- 7th highest yards allowed rating
- 5th largest upgrade to opposing offense
Eagles * vs. LV
Eagles Week 15
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Dolphins vs Jets | 2023 | 15 | 22 |
| Similar | Packers vs Bears | 2021 | 14 | 13 |
| Boom | Dolphins vs Jets | 2023 | 15 | 22 |
| Bust | Jets vs Bills | 2018 | 10 | -7 |
Crowd-sourced average from 27 votes
Why so high?
- least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 5th largest downgrade to opposing QB
Jaguars * vs. NYJ
Jaguars Week 15
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Ravens @ Giants | 2024 | 15 | 8 |
| Similar | Ravens vs Jets | 2019 | 15 | 5 |
| Boom | Bills vs Jets | 2023 | 11 | 21 |
| Bust | Buccaneers @ Panthers | 2022 | 7 | 1 |
Crowd-sourced average from 27 votes
Why so high?
- 2nd least points allowed acc. betting lines
- largest downgrade to opposing QB
Why so low?
- 2nd largest upgrade to opposing offense
- 4th largest downgrade to own QB
Texans * vs. ARI
Texans Week 15
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Cowboys @ Panthers | 2023 | 11 | 23 |
| Similar | Rams vs Texans | 2017 | 10 | 16 |
| Boom | Falcons vs Giants | 2024 | 16 | 26 |
| Bust | Broncos @ Rams | 2022 | 16 | -4 |
Crowd-sourced average from 27 votes
Why so high?
- 6th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- lowest yards allowed rating
Bears * vs. TEN
Bears Week 15
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Bears vs Patriots | 2024 | 10 | 3 |
| Similar | Jets vs Bills | 2018 | 10 | -7 |
| Boom | Bills vs Jets | 2023 | 11 | 21 |
| Bust | Jets vs Bills | 2018 | 10 | -7 |
Crowd-sourced average from 27 votes
Why so high?
- 5th least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 6th most sacks expected from both teams´ histories
Why so low?
- 9th least interceptions thrown by opponent
49ers * vs. IND
49ers Week 15
Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Jaguars vs Bengals | 2017 | 9 | 14 |
| Similar | Chargers vs Browns | 2017 | 13 | 12 |
| Boom | Broncos vs Jets | 2021 | 3 | 17 |
| Bust | Bengals vs Browns | 2017 | 12 | 2 |
Crowd-sourced average from 27 votes
Why so high?
- 3rd least points allowed acc. betting lines
- 2nd largest downgrade to opposing QB
Refreshed 1 day ago
Score expectations for all 32 teams, trained to account for all team aspects on both sides of the ball. QBs, D/STs, and Kickers.
Quarterback
Week 15
Josh Allen | BUF
Why so high?
- highest QB rushing stats
- 8th most points expected acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- 5th highest chance of RBs taking points
- weather
Matthew Stafford | LAR
Why so high?
- most points expected acc. betting lines
- highest passing volume
Why so low?
- lowest QB rushing stats
- 7th highest chance of RBs taking points
Brock Purdy | SF
Why so high?
- 2nd most points expected acc. betting lines
- 9th highest pass efficiency
Why so low?
- 2nd highest chance of RBs taking points
Jalen Hurts | PHI
Why so high?
- 7th highest QB rushing stats
- 9th most points expected acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- weather
- least QB rushing allowed by opponent
Lamar Jackson | BAL
Why so high?
- 5th most points expected acc. betting lines
- 5th highest QB rushing stats
Why so low?
- divisional game
- 9th highest chance of RBs taking points
Dak Prescott | DAL
Why so high?
- 6th most points expected acc. betting lines
- 4th highest pass efficiency
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This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities! Get unique insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.
Brandon Aubrey
- More kicking opportunities overall, at all distances.
- Less likely to take long kicks, despite drives stopping upfield.
- Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range
- Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.
It’s not only the projection that matters! It’s key to consider the range of possible outcomes. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.
Seahawks Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Jaguars vs Commanders | 2018 | 15 | 12 |
| Similar | Chiefs vs Raiders | 2024 | 13 | 3 |
| Boom | Jaguars vs Commanders | 2018 | 15 | 12 |
| Bust | Buccaneers @ Panthers | 2022 | 7 | 1 |
Specialized advice for Survivor, based on my own game score models—and my own optimization algorithm. Covers 3 surviving pathways all season!
Path 3A
| Week | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | PHI |
| 2 | SF |
| 3 | SEA |
| 4 | HOU |
| 5 | DET |
| 6 | IND |
| 7 | GB |
| 8 | KC |
| 9 | LAC |
| 10 | DEN |
| 11 | NE |
| 12 | BAL |
| 13 | MIA |
| 14 | LAR |
| 15 | DAL |
| 16 | JAC |
| 17 | TB |
| Longevity Expectancy value of number of weeks survival, i.e. before a loss. | 1.9 |
Path 3B
| Week | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | PHI |
| 2 | SF |
| 3 | SEA |
| 4 | HOU |
| 5 | DET |
| 6 | IND |
| 7 | GB |
| 8 | KC |
| 9 | LAC |
| 10 | DEN |
| 11 | NE |
| 12 | BAL |
| 13 | MIA |
| 14 | LAR |
| 15 | JAC |
| 16 | NYG |
| 17 | TB |
| Longevity Expectancy value of number of weeks survival, i.e. before a loss. | 1.9 |
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