Predictive insights with statistical integrity

At Subvertadown, a track record of predictive accuracy against other rankings is just the starting point.

What followers here really appreciate is the deeper analysis that helps them take ownership of their decisions. Intuitive visualizations reveal the range of outcomes they can expect, grounded in historical data. Predictive models break down the components of fantasy scores, helping them understand the real drivers—and where points are likely to come from. Forward-looking projections help them plan ahead, weigh their options, and make smarter roster moves. And specialized tools, like D/ST Pairing, help them make better use of their bench space.

It's about extracting clearer, more actionable insights from analysis that's otherwise too complex— so you can make informed decisions with greater confidence, rather than relying on rankings alone.

Whether you're discovering my work through JJ Zachariason’s LateRound, where I provide kicker rankings, or through word-of-mouth, you're probably here because you trust in the value of meaningful predictive signals, to make better-informed fantasy decisions.

The live visualizations featured on this page demonstrate just some of the deeper analysis that "goes beyond just rankings": guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, and visuals that depict actual historical "range of outcomes" for similar matchups.

Rankings for Fantasy Football Flex Players

Weekly RB, WR, and TE rankings for 0.5 PPR. · Week 10

Position
Rankings for Fantasy Football Flex Players
Rank Player Proj Tm Matchup
1 20.6 ATL-1 vs. KC
2 19.2 KC-1 @ ATL
3 19.0 CAR-1 @ NO
4 18.5 DET-1 🌐 NE
5 18.3 SF-1 @ DAL
6 17.3 DET-1 🌐 NE
7 17.0 DAL-1 vs. SF
8 16.6 SEA-1 @ LV
9 16.2 CIN-1 vs. PIT
10 16.1 BAL-1 vs. LAC
11 15.8 BUF-1 @ NYJ
12 14.6 JAC-1 @ TEN
13 14.1 LAR-1 @ ARI
14 13.6 HOU-1 @ CLE
15 13.5 PIT-1 @ CIN
16 13.5 DAL-1 vs. SF
17 13.1 IND-1 vs. MIA
18 12.8 MIN-1 @ GB
19 12.8 CIN-2 vs. PIT
20 12.5 CAR-1 @ NO
21 12.5 ARI-1 vs. LAR
22 12.5 IND-1 vs. MIA
23 12.4 NYG-1 vs. WAS
24 12.3 TEN-1 vs. JAC
25 12.0 JAC-1 @ TEN
26 12.0 NO-1 vs. CAR
27 11.9 NE-1 🌐 DET
28 11.9 MIA-1 @ IND
29 11.9 GB-1 vs. MIN
30 11.8 GB-2 vs. MIN
31 11.8 CIN-1 vs. PIT
32 11.8 NYJ-1 vs. BUF
33 11.6 ATL-1 vs. KC
34 11.2 BAL-1 vs. LAC
35 11.1 LV-1 vs. SEA
36 11.1 PIT-1 @ CIN
37 11.0 DET-2 🌐 NE
38 11.0 NE-1 🌐 DET
39 11.0 NYG-1 vs. WAS
40 11.0 CAR-2 @ NO
41 10.9 SF-1 @ DAL
42 10.9 LV-1 vs. SEA
43 9.9 CLE-1 vs. HOU
44 9.7 LAR-2 @ ARI
45 9.7 WAS-1 @ NYG
46 9.6 KC-1 @ ATL
47 9.6 NYJ-1 vs. BUF
48 9.5 NYG-1 vs. WAS
49 9.4 DAL-2 vs. SF
50 9.3 DAL-3 vs. SF
51 9.3 PIT-2 @ CIN
52 9.3 HOU-1 @ CLE
53 9.2 CLE-1 vs. HOU
54 9.1 MIN-2 @ GB
55 9.1 BUF-1 @ NYJ
56 8.9 ARI-1 vs. LAR
57 8.7 SEA-1 @ LV
58 8.7 NO-1 vs. CAR
59 8.3 MIA-1 @ IND
60 8.2 LAC-1 @ BAL
61 8.1 PIT-2 @ CIN
62 8.1 NO-2 vs. CAR
63 8.0 WAS-1 @ NYG
64 8.0 TEN-1 vs. JAC
65 7.9 CLE-2 vs. HOU
66 7.8 MIA-2 @ IND
67 7.7 DET-1 🌐 NE
68 7.7 BUF-2 @ NYJ
69 7.7 JAC-2 @ TEN
70 7.7 WAS-2 @ NYG
71 7.7 MIN-1 @ GB
72 7.5 SF-2 @ DAL
73 7.5 SEA-2 @ LV
74 7.5 SF-1 @ DAL
75 7.5 SF-2 @ DAL
76 7.5 NYJ-2 vs. BUF
77 7.5 HOU-2 @ CLE
78 7.4 KC-2 @ ATL
79 7.4 SF-3 @ DAL
80 7.4 NO-2 vs. CAR
81 7.4 LAR-1 @ ARI
82 7.4 LAR-1 @ ARI
83 7.3 KC-1 @ ATL
84 7.3 NE-2 🌐 DET
85 7.2 KC-2 @ ATL
86 7.2 MIN-2 @ GB
87 7.2 LAR-2 @ ARI
88 7.2 NE-3 🌐 DET
89 7.2 NYG-2 vs. WAS
90 7.2 NYJ-2 vs. BUF
91 7.1 LV-1 vs. SEA
92 7.1 NYJ-3 vs. BUF
93 7.1 SF-4 @ DAL
94 7.0 JAC-2 @ TEN
95 7.0 ATL-1 vs. KC
96 6.8 IND-1 vs. MIA
97 6.8 NO-3 vs. CAR
98 6.7 CIN-3 vs. PIT
99 6.7 BUF-3 @ NYJ
100 6.6 MIA-3 @ IND
101 6.6 SEA-2 @ LV
102 6.6 GB-3 vs. MIN
103 6.5 JAC-3 @ TEN
104 6.5 LAC-1 @ BAL
105 6.5 NYG-2 vs. WAS
106 6.5 LAC-2 @ BAL
107 6.5 LV-2 vs. SEA
108 6.4 CLE-2 vs. HOU
109 6.3 MIN-1 @ GB
110 6.3 HOU-3 @ CLE
111 6.3 ATL-2 vs. KC
112 6.3 HOU-4 @ CLE
113 6.3 PIT-1 @ CIN
114 6.3 NE-1 🌐 DET
115 6.2 DET-3 🌐 NE
116 6.2 NE-4 🌐 DET
117 6.2 NYG-3 vs. WAS
118 6.2 BUF-1 @ NYJ
119 6.0 GB-1 vs. MIN
120 6.0 HOU-2 @ CLE
121 6.0 LAR-3 @ ARI
122 6.0 WAS-3 @ NYG
123 6.0 TEN-2 vs. JAC
124 6.0 CLE-1 vs. HOU
125 6.0 WAS-4 @ NYG
126 5.9 IND-2 vs. MIA
127 5.8 GB-2 vs. MIN
128 5.8 SEA-3 @ LV
129 5.8 SEA-4 @ LV
130 5.8 CLE-3 vs. HOU
131 5.7 GB-1 vs. MIN
132 5.7 ARI-1 vs. LAR
133 5.7 TEN-3 vs. JAC
134 5.7 JAC-1 @ TEN
135 5.7 CAR-1 @ NO
136 5.7 JAC-4 @ TEN
137 5.7 ARI-2 vs. LAR
138 5.7 IND-2 vs. MIA
139 5.7 LAR-2 @ ARI
140 5.6 BAL-2 vs. LAC
141 5.6 WAS-2 @ NYG
142 5.5 LV-2 vs. SEA
143 5.5 BAL-3 vs. LAC
144 5.5 TEN-4 vs. JAC
145 5.5 CIN-2 vs. PIT
146 5.3 ARI-2 vs. LAR
147 5.3 NO-4 vs. CAR
148 5.3 IND-3 vs. MIA
149 5.3 CIN-4 vs. PIT
150 5.3 ATL-3 vs. KC
151 5.3 ATL-4 vs. KC
152 5.2 HOU-5 @ CLE
153 5.2 CIN-1 vs. PIT
154 5.2 KC-3 @ ATL
155 5.2 BAL-2 vs. LAC
156 5.1 LAC-2 @ BAL
157 5.1 CAR-3 @ NO
158 4.8 LAC-3 @ BAL
159 4.8 MIA-1 @ IND
160 4.8 NE-2 🌐 DET
161 4.7 PIT-2 @ CIN
162 4.7 NO-1 vs. CAR
163 4.6 DET-2 🌐 NE
164 4.4 SEA-1 @ LV
165 4.3 LV-2 vs. SEA
166 4.2 DAL-2 vs. SF
167 3.9 GB-3 vs. MIN
168 3.9 NO-3 vs. CAR
169 3.8 BUF-2 @ NYJ
170 3.8 LAC-1 @ BAL
171 3.7 HOU-1 @ CLE
172 3.7 WAS-1 @ NYG
173 3.6 DAL-1 vs. SF
174 3.5 MIA-2 @ IND
175 3.5 TEN-2 vs. JAC
176 3.5 NE-2 🌐 DET
177 3.4 BUF-3 @ NYJ
178 3.4 MIA-3 @ IND
179 3.3 NYJ-1 vs. BUF
180 3.3 SEA-3 @ LV

Refreshed 16 minutes ago

Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts. Fantasy scores are projected for QB, D/ST, and Kicker, and Strength of Schedule charts project fantasy point deviations for RB, WR, and TE.

D/STs

Player/Team 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Ravens 8.9 5.8 4.3 - 6.7 5.2 7.8 4.2 6.1
Titans 3.6 3.6 3.8 5.4 3.8 6.3 4.7 4.6 4.5

Quarterbacks

Player/Team 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Dak Prescott | DAL 19.2 22.0 18.2 13.6 - 15.5 17.6 18.3 17.8
Carson Beck | ARI 9.6 11.9 13.6 14.7 - 16.0 14.9 16.1 13.8

Kickers

Player/Team 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Chad Ryland | ARI 7.5 5.2 8.4 11.2 - 9.1 9.1 8.5 8.5
Jake Elliott | PHI - 7.3 7.9 10.2 9.5 8.2 5.6 7.4 8.0

The range of possible outcomes is a truly key consideration for anyone serious about strategizing their lineups. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.

Rams Similar historical matchups

Matchup Year Wk Result
Similar Vikings vs Broncos 2019 11 3
Similar Jets vs Bills 2018 10 -4
Boom Cowboys @ Panthers 2023 11 22
Bust Jets vs Bills 2018 10 -4

This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities: Where on the field the play is likely to stop. Get unique visual insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.

Cam Little

  • Less likely to stall upfield. and more likely to kick near the endzone
  • Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range
  • Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.

How to read this chart

Bar charts visualize how points get made. These help you see how each score component is expected, relative to the league average.

QB

49ers Week 10
Brock Purdy

D/ST

Rams Week 10