Predictive insights with statistical integrity

My fantasy rankings and accuracy reports get too much of the attention.

What people really stay for is a shared love of extracting predictive insights. We don’t just want rankings. We want to understand the real drivers. We want confidence in the reasoning behind our fantasy decisions.

At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.

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Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.

Last Week Was Even Wilder-- Let's Get Onto Week 3! SANTA CLARA, CA - SEPTEMBER 20: Tight end George Kittle (85) of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Miami Dolphins during a game at Levi's Stadium on September 20, 2026 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire)

Last Week Was Even Wilder-- Let's Get Onto Week 3!

Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts.

Player/Team 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Chiefs 10.6 6.4 - 7.7 4.6 7.2 7.9 7.6 7.3 4.0 3.3 6.8 7.9 4.2 6.5 6.6
Giants 8.6 6.4 3.7 5.6 5.4 - 5.5 4.1 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.4 6.7 4.3 1.4 4.6

Player/Team 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Lamar Jackson | BAL 23.0 18.9 19.7 16.6 17.8 16.6 18.0 16.8 18.3 17.1 - 17.6 17.0 16.8 17.1 17.9
Josh Allen | BUF 22.6 20.4 19.4 21.1 - 19.1 19.2 18.0 18.7 19.7 18.9 18.4 18.5 18.8 18.2 19.4

Player/Team 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Trey Smack | GB 10.0 7.2 7.0 6.8 7.2 6.1 7.3 7.7 - 8.0 8.1 8.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.7
Tyler Loop | BAL 10.0 9.0 8.5 7.8 7.4 6.9 6.6 6.9 6.9 8.7 - 8.5 8.6 8.2 5.9 8.0

Members here mostly care what’s behind the numbers: rigorous models. But the website goes further by also interpreting the reasons behind each recommendation. So try hovering over the tool-tips for deeper explanations, to help you reason your weekly pick.

Quarterbacks

Wk 3 Proj. Stats
Player Matchup Wk 3 Wk 4 Err. PaY RuY PTD Int.
Lamar Jackson BAL @ DAL 23.0 18.9 6.1 260 32 2.0 0.8
Josh Allen BUF vs. LAC 22.6 20.4 6.5 256 41 2.0 0.6

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D/STs

Wk 3 Proj. Stats
Team Wk 3 Wk 4 Hold? Err.
Chiefs @ Dolphins 10.6 6.4 5.1
Seahawks @ Commanders 8.6 8.7 4.9

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Kickers

Wk 3 Proj. Risk
Player Matchup Wk 3 Wk 4
Hold? 		Err. 4thD Missed Ceil Fl DD% LD% FG XP
Impl. score
Tyler Loop BAL @ DAL 10.0 9.0 - 4.0 1.3 0.3 14.2 6.5 40% 31% 1.8 2.9 27.8
Trey Smack GB vs. ATL 10.0 7.2 - 3.7 1.0 0.4 13.7 6.6 37% 31% 1.8 2.6 24.8

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‘Strength of Schedule (SoS) forecasts the difficulty for a team’s, for future weeks. These charts are based on multi-dimensional predictive models, which makes them much more reliable than plain “fantasy points allowed” that you might find elsewhere, if you’re making your roster decisions based on opponents.

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Running Backs

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Chiefs 26.3 1.2 3.7 -0.2 - 0.2 -2.6 1.3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.4 -1.5 -2.2 -1.8 -0.7 0.0 -0.3
Texans 19.9 0.1 2.1 0.5 -0.2 -2.0 1.4 - -1.5 -2.1 2.6 -0.4 0.1 -2.7 -1.0 -1.2 -1.2 -0.4

Wide Receivers

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Packers 33.2 0.2 3.9 -2.4 -1.3 0.5 5.2 1.2 -1.8 0.4 - 1.0 1.6 1.6 -0.7 -1.6 -2.6 0.4
Jets 26.0 0.8 3.8 -1.5 1.8 -1.1 -0.2 0.3 -1.4 3.2 5.7 -2.4 - -0.7 5.6 -1.1 2.5 1.0

Tight Ends

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Ravens 13.5 0.6 3.0 -1.2 2.1 -1.4 0.1 -0.7 -0.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 - 1.6 -3.0 -0.8 -0.2 0.1
Jets 9.5 0.1 2.8 -0.3 -0.3 -1.7 1.5 0.1 1.0 0.5 2.0 0.7 - -0.4 0.8 -1.7 1.2 0.5

Betting lines: A portfolio of suggested likely betting options, among spreads and O/Us. In addition to scaling the level of each wager, it also suggests whether to bet near opening or closing.

Bets for Open

Spreads

Original Spreads (Tuesday) and Updates Current Spreads (if placed after Tuesday)
Orig. Pick Orig. Line Opponent Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current
FalconsTNF 6.1 Packers $5 - - 6.1 4.0 $5

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O/U

Original O/U (Tuesday) and Updates Current O/U (if placed after Tuesday)
Home Away Orig. Pick Orig. Line Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current
PackersTNF Falcons U 44.5 $5 - - 44.5 42.7 $5

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Preview how I turn stats into useful reasoning! The pros-and-cons lists have extracted statistical drivers from key data. This can supplement your kicker choices, no matter what rankings you use!

Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.

Pros Cons
Trey Smack GB vs. ATL
  • 8th highest chance for long kicks
  • 6th highest chance of winning
  • 7th lowest chance offense gains lead
Tyler Loop BAL @ DAL
  • 7th highest chance for long kicks
  • 3rd highest chance getting stalled midfield
  • 7th lowest in passing progress

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View all kickers for this week

We’re the only source with distinct models supporting different settings: a dedicated D/ST model for ESPN settings, and a dedicated kicker model for Decimal scoring.

Live Week 3 projections

Kicker

Player Standard Decimal
Tyler Loop | BAL 10.0 10.4

D/ST

Team ESPN Yahoo! YDB
Chiefs 10.6 10.3 11.8
Seahawks 8.6 8.2 9.3

Score expectations for all 32 teams, trained to account for all team aspects on both sides of the ball. QBs, D/STs, and Kickers.

Quarterback

Week 3

Lamar Jackson | BAL

23.0

Josh Allen | BUF

22.6

Patrick Mahomes | KC

19.9

Brock Purdy | SF

19.4

Jared Goff | DET

18.6

Dak Prescott | DAL

18.6
View Full Projections

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This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities! Get unique insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.

Trey Smack

  • More kicking opportunities overall, at all distances.
  • Less likely to take long kicks, despite drives stopping upfield.
  • Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.

How to read this chart

It’s not only the projection that matters! It’s key to consider the range of possible outcomes. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.

Chiefs Similar historical matchups

Matchup Year Wk Result
Similar Chiefs vs Bears 2023 3 11
Similar Jaguars vs Texans 2023 3 -2
Boom Bills @ Commanders 2023 3 31
Bust Jaguars vs Texans 2023 3 -3

Specialized advice for Survivor, based on my own game score models—and my own optimization algorithm. Covers 3 surviving pathways all season!

Path 3A

Week Team
1 DET
2 KC
3 SF
4 NYG
5 CIN
6 LAR
7 NYJ
8 DAL
9 SEA
10 JAC
11 BUF
12 MIN
13 DEN
14 CHI
15 TB
16 PHI
17 NO
Longevity 3.6

Path 3B

Week Team
1 DET
2 KC
3 BUF
4 BAL
5 CIN
6 LAR
7 SF
8 DAL
9 SEA
10 IND
11 PHI
12 JAC
13 DEN
14 CHI
15 GB
16 NO
17 NE
Longevity 4.0