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Predictive insights with statistical integrity

My fantasy rankings and accuracy reports get too much of the attention.

What people really stay for is a shared love of extracting predictive insights. We don’t just want rankings. We want to understand the real drivers. We want confidence in the reasoning behind our fantasy decisions.

At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.

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Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.

Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts.

Player/Team 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Broncos 10.4 4.4 6.0 8.8 3.1 - 9.2 9.1 12.2 11.4 11.9 8.7
Patriots 10.1 8.0 5.9 7.6 10.1 7.2 6.8 - 6.1 0.9 7.1 7.0

Player/Team 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Chris Oladokun | KC 23.5 24.7 25.1 - 23.6 24.5 27.6 21.5 25.1 19.1 12.5 22.7
Josh Johnson | WAS 21.5 17.6 17.6 16.5 14.7 - 9.9 11.3 17.4 14.1 7.7 14.8

Player/Team 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Brandon Aubrey | DAL 6.0 5.2 6.2 - 6.1 6.3 5.8 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.2 6.1
Chris Boswell | PIT 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.7 6.3 5.7 5.3 5.0 6.0 5.3 5.6 5.8

Members here mostly care what’s behind the numbers: rigorous models. But the website goes further by also interpreting the reasons behind each recommendation. So try hovering over the tool-tips for deeper explanations, to help you reason your weekly pick.

Quarterbacks

Wk 7 Proj. Stats
Player Matchup Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9 Err. PaY RuY PTD Int.
Chris Oladokun KC vs. LV 23.5 24.7 25.1 6.4 252 41 2.2 0.5
Josh Johnson WAS @ DAL 21.5 17.6 17.6 6.0 223 52 1.7 0.6

Refreshed 3 weeks ago


D/STs

Wk 7 Proj. Stats
Team Wk 7 Wk 7 Trend Wk 8 Wk 9 Hold? Err.
Broncos vs. Giants 10.4 4.4 6.0 4.7
Patriots @ Titans 10.1 8.0 5.9 4.4

Refreshed 3 weeks ago


Kickers

Wk 7 Proj. Risk
Player Matchup Wk 7 Wk 8 Wk 9
Hold? 		Err. 4thD Missed Ceil Fl DD% LD% FG XP
Impl. score
Brandon Aubrey DAL vs. WAS 6.0 5.2 6.2 Y 3.7 1.4 0.4 10.0 2.8 46% 28% 1.7 3 27.7
Jake Bates DET vs. TB 5.8 - 5.8 Y 3.3 1.3 0.3 9.2 2.9 44% 30% 1.8 3.3 28.7

Refreshed 3 weeks ago


‘Strength of Schedule (SoS) forecasts the difficulty for a team’s, for future weeks. These charts are based on multi-dimensional predictive models, which makes them much more reliable than plain “fantasy points allowed” that you might find elsewhere, if you’re making your roster decisions based on opponents.

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Running Backs

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Steelers 21.9 2.5 2.0 0.8 1.8 5.4 4.6 2.6 2.0 0.7 3.0 1.1 4.2 2.6
Broncos 20.0 1.6 1.8 3.8 -0.8 1.6 0.7 - 2.2 3.2 7.0 3.5 3.9 2.7

Wide Receivers

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Chargers 29.6 -0.6 2.7 -1.9 -3.9 0.5 -3.1 - -2.9 -3.7 -5.3 2.9 -6.6 -2.1
Cowboys 26.7 2.4 2.6 -0.2 4.8 - 2.8 8.2 7.3 8.3 3.8 9.4 5.1 5.2

Tight Ends

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Chargers 8.1 -0.1 1.4 -0.2 -1.7 0.0 -1.9 - -1.7 -2.1 -3.3 -0.4 -3.0 -1.3
Lions 12.7 0.9 1.3 - 1.3 0.0 -1.1 1.8 1.0 0.7 -1.4 1.3 0.0 0.5

Betting lines: A portfolio of suggested likely betting options, among spreads and O/Us. In addition to scaling the level of each wager, it also suggests whether to bet near opening or closing.

Bets for Open

Spreads

Original Spreads (Tuesday) and Updates Current Spreads (if placed after Tuesday)
Orig. Pick Orig. Line Opponent Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current

O/U

Original O/U (Tuesday) and Updates Current O/U (if placed after Tuesday)
Home Away Orig. Pick Orig. Line Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current

Preview how I turn stats into useful reasoning! The pros-and-cons lists have extracted statistical drivers from key data. This can supplement your kicker choices, no matter what rankings you use!

Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.

Pros Cons
Brandon Aubrey DAL vs. WAS
  • 2nd best usage / less aggressive coaching
  • dome or low wind speed
  • lowest in passing progress
Jake Bates DET vs. TB
  • 8th highest chance getting stalled midfield
  • 6th highest chance of winning
  • no standout reason; multiple smaller reasons

Refreshed 3 weeks ago

View all kickers for this week

D/ST scores are crowd-sourced from your votes, in the D/ST Pick6x6 contest.

D/ST
| |

Week 7

Broncos vs. NYG

10.4

Patriots @ TEN

10.1

Chiefs vs. LV

9.9

Browns vs. MIA

9.6

Dolphins @ CLE

8.8

Bears vs. NO

8.7

Seahawks vs. HOU

8.4

Panthers @ NYJ

8.1

Steelers @ CIN

8.0

Rams @ JAC

7.8
View Full Projections

Refreshed 3 weeks ago

Score expectations for all 32 teams, trained to account for all team aspects on both sides of the ball. QBs, D/STs, and Kickers.

Quarterback

Week 7

Chris Oladokun | KC

23.5

Josh Johnson | WAS

21.5

Dak Prescott | DAL

20.6

Jalen Hurts | PHI

19.9

Jared Goff | DET

19.8

Malik Willis | GB

18.8
View Full Projections

Refreshed 3 weeks ago

This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities! Get unique insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.

Brandon Aubrey

  • More likely to stall upfield, and less likely to kick near the endzone.
  • Less likely to take long kicks, despite drives stopping upfield.
  • Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range
  • Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.

How to read this chart

It’s not only the projection that matters! It’s key to consider the range of possible outcomes. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.

Patriots Similar historical matchups

Matchup Year Wk Result
Similar Browns vs Titans 2025 14 2
Similar Patriots vs Jets 2016 16 15
Boom Patriots vs Jets 2016 16 16
Bust Broncos vs Patriots 2023 16 5

Specialized advice for Survivor, based on my own game score models—and my own optimization algorithm. Covers 3 surviving pathways all season!

Path 3A

Week Team
1 PHI
2 SF
3 SEA
4 HOU
5 DET
6 IND
7 GB
8 KC
9 LAC
10 DEN
11 NE
12 BAL
13 MIA
14 LAR
15 JAC
16 BUF
17 CIN
Longevity 0.6

Path 3B

Week Team
1 PHI
2 SF
3 SEA
4 HOU
5 DET
6 IND
7 GB
8 KC
9 LAC
10 DEN
11 NE
12 BAL
13 MIA
14 LAR
15 JAC
16 BUF
17 DAL
Longevity 0.8