Predictive insights with statistical integrity

My fantasy rankings and accuracy reports get too much of the attention.

What people really stay for is a shared love of extracting predictive insights. We don’t just want rankings. We want to understand the real drivers. We want confidence in the reasoning behind our fantasy decisions.

At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.

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Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.

Accuracy Report #1: Weeks 1 - 4, 2026 HOUSTON, TX - OCTOBER 04: Quarterback C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans passes the ball while rolling out during the NFL football game between the Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys on October 4, 2026, at Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire)

Accuracy Report #1: Weeks 1 - 4, 2026

Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts.

Player/Team 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Texans 10.1 2.8 5.8 - 7.1 7.6 4.2 6.6 6.7 6.9 2.9 6.3 7.9 6.2
Jaguars 9.6 7.0 - 6.3 5.8 7.5 4.8 7.7 3.0 7.8 5.6 3.0 7.0 6.3

Player/Team 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Jared Goff | DET 20.5 - 16.4 16.2 16.4 15.2 16.4 14.7 15.8 16.4 15.0 15.4 14.8 16.1
Josh Allen | BUF 20.4 19.3 - 17.9 16.9 16.9 17.4 17.7 17.1 17.4 16.3 17.9 17.4 17.7

Player/Team 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Brandon Aubrey | DAL 10.1 6.7 7.8 10.0 8.5 7.6 8.5 8.6 8.4 - 8.8 7.8 8.2 8.6
Will Reichard | MIN 9.8 - 9.0 7.4 7.8 9.4 7.1 7.9 8.1 5.5 9.0 10.4 7.8 8.3

Members here mostly care what’s behind the numbers: rigorous models. But the website goes further by also interpreting the reasons behind each recommendation. So try hovering over the tool-tips for deeper explanations, to help you reason your weekly pick.

Quarterbacks

Wk 5 Proj. Stats
Player Matchup Wk 5 Wk 6 Err. PaY RuY PTD Int.
Jared Goff DET @ ARI 20.5 - 5.8 311 7 2.2 0.8
Josh Allen BUF @ LAR 20.4 19.3 7.3 239 26 1.6 0.8

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D/STs

Wk 5 Proj. Stats
Team Wk 5 Wk 5 Trend Wk 6 Hold? Err.
Texans @ Titans 10.1 2.8 - 4.8
Jaguars @ Eagles 9.6 7.0 4.8

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Kickers

Wk 5 Proj. Risk
Player Matchup Wk 5 Wk 6
Hold? 		Err. 4thD Missed Ceil Fl DD% LD% FG XP
Impl. score
Brandon Aubrey DAL vs. TB 10.1 6.7 Y 4.1 0.6 0.5 14.3 6.6 60% 27% 2.1 3 28.0
Will Reichard MIN @ NO 9.8 - - 4.1 0.8 0.3 14.3 6.5 43% 30% 2.0 1.9 22.1

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‘Strength of Schedule (SoS) forecasts the difficulty for a team’s, for future weeks. These charts are based on multi-dimensional predictive models, which makes them much more reliable than plain “fantasy points allowed” that you might find elsewhere, if you’re making your roster decisions based on opponents.

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Running Backs

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Vikings 20.6 0.7 2.3 - -0.3 0.1 0.4 2.1 -0.3 -0.7 0.9 -0.3 1.3 1.7 1.6 0.7
Browns 22.4 0.5 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.6 -0.8 - 1.0 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.2

Wide Receivers

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Lions 31.3 2.3 6.1 - 0.3 0.4 -3.6 -3.4 -0.6 -1.9 0.1 -0.4 -1.5 -2.7 -3.5 -0.9
Cardinals 22.8 1.4 3.9 -0.4 1.4 0.8 -2.9 0.5 -3.5 2.2 2.8 - 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.6

Tight Ends

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Lions 15.0 1.2 2.4 - 0.7 0.4 0.2 -1.6 1.1 -0.6 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -1.2 0.2
Cardinals 16.7 0.9 2.0 -0.5 1.0 1.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 1.9 0.8 - 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.7

Betting lines: A portfolio of suggested likely betting options, among spreads and O/Us. In addition to scaling the level of each wager, it also suggests whether to bet near opening or closing.

Bets for Open

Spreads

Original Spreads (Tuesday) and Updates Current Spreads (if placed after Tuesday)
Orig. Pick Orig. Line Opponent Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current
CowboysTNF -8.6 Buccaneers $5 - - -8.6 -14.9 $5

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O/U

Original O/U (Tuesday) and Updates Current O/U (if placed after Tuesday)
Home Away Orig. Pick Orig. Line Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current
CowboysTNF Buccaneers O 47.6 $5 - - 47.5 49.9 $5

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Preview how I turn stats into useful reasoning! The pros-and-cons lists have extracted statistical drivers from key data. This can supplement your kicker choices, no matter what rankings you use!

Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.

Pros Cons
Brandon Aubrey DAL vs. TB
  • 3rd highest chance for long kicks
  • highest chance offense gains lead
  • 7th highest chance big plays allowed
Will Reichard MIN @ NO
  • 5th best usage / less aggressive coaching
  • dome or low wind speed
  • 2nd lowest chance offense gains lead
  • lowest in passing progress

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View all kickers for this week

We’re the only source with distinct models supporting different settings: a dedicated D/ST model for ESPN settings, and a dedicated kicker model for Decimal scoring.

Live Week 5 projections

Kicker

Player Standard Decimal
Brandon Aubrey | DAL 10.1 10.8

D/ST

Team ESPN Yahoo! YDB
Texans 10.1 9.8 9.9
Jaguars 9.6 9.9 10.1

Score expectations for all 32 teams, trained to account for all team aspects on both sides of the ball. QBs, D/STs, and Kickers.

Quarterback

Week 5

Jared Goff | DET

20.5

Josh Allen | BUF

20.4

Dak Prescott | DAL

20.1

Matthew Stafford | LAR

19.8

Jacoby Brissett | ARI

18.0

Drake Maye | NE

17.6
View Full Projections

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This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities! Get unique insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.

Brandon Aubrey

  • More kicking opportunities overall, at all distances.
  • Less likely to take long kicks, despite drives stopping upfield.
  • Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range
  • Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.

How to read this chart

It’s not only the projection that matters! It’s key to consider the range of possible outcomes. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.

Texans Similar historical matchups

Matchup Year Wk Result
Similar Vikings @ Browns 2025 5 4
Similar Jets vs Broncos 2024 4 7
Boom Jets vs Patriots 2024 3 16
Bust Bills @ Patriots 2023 7 2

Specialized advice for Survivor, based on my own game score models—and my own optimization algorithm. Covers 3 surviving pathways all season!

Path 3A

Week Team
1 DET
2 KC
3 SF
4 SEA
5 JAC
6 IND
7 CAR
8 DAL
9 CHI
10 NYG
11 BUF
12 LAR
13 CIN
14 ATL
15 NO
16 BAL
17 HOU
Longevity 4.3

Path 3B

Week Team
1 DET
2 KC
3 SF
4 SEA
5 HOU
6 LAR
7 CAR
8 DAL
9 CHI
10 NYG
11 BUF
12 JAC
13 CIN
14 IND
15 ATL
16 NO
17 LV
Longevity 4.1