Predictive insights with statistical integrity

My fantasy rankings and accuracy reports get too much of the attention.

What people really stay for is a shared love of extracting predictive insights. We don’t just want rankings. We want to understand the real drivers. We want confidence in the reasoning behind our fantasy decisions.

At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.

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Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.

$article->photo INGLEWOOD, CA - NOVEMBER 2: Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams (23) stiff arms New Orleans Saints safety Jonas Sanker (33) during the NFL game between the New Orleans Saints and the Los Angeles Rams on November 02, 2025, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)

Accuracy Report 2025 Weeks 5 - 8

Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts.

10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
AVG
Playoffs
Panthers 9.1 6.0 6.8 5.1 - 7.9 6.0 5.0 6.5 6.3
Broncos 8.9 4.6 - 5.9 8.8 4.8 6.9 3.9 6.3 5.2

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10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
AVG
Playoffs
Josh Allen | BUF 23.2 21.8 21.0 21.3 24.4 21.6 20.7 20.8 21.8 21.0
Lamar Jackson | BAL 22.4 20.6 22.5 25.4 22.5 24.6 22.6 20.0 22.6 22.4

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11
12
13
14
15
16
17
AVG
Playoffs
Tyler Loop | BAL 9.9 9.5 9.4 9.8 10.0 10.1 9.3 9.2 9.7 9.6
Cameron Dicker | LAC 9.8 9.2 - 10.7 9.8 8.3 9.8 9.8 9.6 9.3

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Members here mostly care what’s behind the numbers: rigorous models. But the website goes further by also interpreting the reasons behind each recommendation. So try hovering over the tool-tips for deeper explanations, to help you reason your weekly pick.

Quarterbacks

Wk 10 Proj. Stats
Player Matchup
Wk 10
Wk 11
Wk 12
Err.
PaY
RuY
PTD
Int.
Josh Allen BUF @ MIA 23.2 21.8 21.0 6.2 216 38 2.1 0.5
Lamar Jackson BAL @ MIN 22.4 20.6 22.5 5.9 242 46 2.1 0.4
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D/STs

Wk 10 Proj. Stats
Team
Wk 10
Wk 10 Trend
Wk 11
Wk 12
Hold?
Err.
PA
YA
Int.
Sacks
FR
TD
Panthers vs. Saints 9.1
- - 5.0 16.6 274 0.8 2.9 0.6 0.18
Broncos vs. Raiders 8.9
- - 4.6 16.8 290 0.9 3.0 0.6 0.13
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Kickers

Wk 10 Proj. Risk
Player Matchup
Wk 10
Wk 11
Wk 12

Hold? 		Err.
4thD
Missed
Ceil
Fl
DD%
LD%
FG
XP

Impl. score
Tyler Loop BAL @ MIN 9.9 9.5 9.4 Y 3.3 1.2 0.3 13.2 7.1 45% 5% 2.2 2.8 27.0
Cameron Dicker LAC vs. PIT 9.8 - - Y 3.6 1.5 0.3 13.3 6.3 45% 15% 2.1 2.2 23.7
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‘Strength of Schedule (SoS) forecasts the difficulty for a team’s, for future weeks. These charts are based on multi-dimensional predictive models, which makes them much more reliable than plain “fantasy points allowed” that you might find elsewhere, if you’re making your roster decisions based on opponents.

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Running Backs

Baseline
Next 4
10
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13
14
15
16
17
AVG
Playoffs
Rams 18.8 0.0 0.9 -1.0 0.2 0.1 -1.4 -1.8 -2.4 2.4 -0.4 -0.6
Saints 14.1 1.0 0.2 - 2.8 0.1 -0.6 0.6 2.4 1.3 1.0 1.4

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Wide Receivers

Baseline
Next 4
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
AVG
Playoffs
Browns 18.7 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.8 0.1 1.5 -0.4 -1.4 0.1 0.1 -0.6
Jaguars 26.4 1.1 -1.0 0.9 1.7 2.6 0.2 4.5 -1.7 0.9 1.0 1.3

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Tight Ends

Baseline
Next 4
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11
12
13
14
15
16
17
AVG
Playoffs
Giants 9.3 -0.1 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 - 0.0 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Buccaneers 7.0 -0.5 -0.3 -1.7 -0.2 0.2 0.9 -1.0 -0.8 0.2 -0.3 -0.5

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Betting lines: A portfolio of suggested likely betting options, among spreads and O/Us. In addition to scaling the level of each wager, it also suggests whether to bet near opening or closing.

Bets for Open

Spreads

Original Spreads (Tuesday) and Updates Current Spreads (if placed after Tuesday)
Orig. Pick Orig. Line Opponent Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current
Buccaneers -2.5 Patriots $6 - - -2.5 -4.6 $6

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O/U

Original O/U (Tuesday) and Updates Current O/U (if placed after Tuesday)
Home Away Orig. Pick Orig. Line Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current
BroncosTNF Raiders U 41.7 $5 - - 42.6 40.3 $6

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Preview how I turn stats into useful reasoning! The pros-and-cons lists have extracted statistical drivers from key data. This can supplement your kicker choices, no matter what rankings you use!

Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.

Pros Cons
Cameron Dicker LAC vs. PIT
  • 2nd highest chance of stalling midfield
  • dome or low wind speed
  • 3rd least possessions allowed by opponent
Tyler Loop BAL @ MIN
  • 5th most points expected acc. betting lines
  • 8th highest chance of stalling midfield
  • 9th most unbalanced matchup
  • risk of high PAT/FG ratio

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View all kickers for this week

D/ST scores are crowd-sourced from your votes, in the D/ST Pick6x6 contest.

D/ST based on votes

Week 10

Browns * @ CLE

9.4

Bills * vs. BUF

9.1

Seahawks * vs. SEA

9.0

Texans * @ HOU

8.9

Panthers * @ CAR

8.8

Jets * vs. NYJ

8.2
* Indicates Pick 6x6 crowd-sourced projection.
View Full Projections

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Score expectations for all 32 teams, trained to account for all team aspects on both sides of the ball. QBs, D/STs, and Kickers.

Quarterback

Week 10

Josh Allen | BUF

23.2

Lamar Jackson | BAL

22.4

Justin Herbert | LAC

20.0

Bo Nix | DEN

19.6

Matthew Stafford | LAR

19.5

Daniel Jones | IND

19.3
View Full Projections

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This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities! Get unique insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.

Tyler Loop

  • Not significantly different from the average kicker situation.
  • Less likely to take long kicks, despite drives stopping upfield.
  • Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range
  • Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.

How to read this chart

It’s not only the projection that matters! It’s key to consider the range of possible outcomes. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.

Browns Similar historical matchups

Matchup Year Wk Result
Similar Dolphins vs Titans 2024 4 4
Similar Bears vs Giants 2019 12 6
Boom Broncos vs Cardinals 2022 15 12
Bust Titans @ Jaguars 2019 3 2

Specialized advice for Survivor, based on my own game score models—and my own optimization algorithm. Covers 3 surviving pathways all season!

Path 3A

Week Team
1 PHI
2 SF
3 SEA
4 HOU
5 DET
6 IND
7 GB
8 KC
9 LAC
10 BUF
11 BAL
12 NE
13 LAR
14 TB
15 WAS
16 NYJ
17 DAL
Longevity 3.3

Path 3B

Week Team
1 PHI
2 SF
3 SEA
4 HOU
5 DET
6 IND
7 GB
8 KC
9 LAC
10 DEN
11 PIT
12 BAL
13 BUF
14 TB
15 WAS
16 MIA
17 LAR
Longevity 3.4