Predictive insights with statistical integrity

At Subvertadown, a track record of predictive accuracy against other rankings is just the starting point.

What followers here really appreciate is the deeper analysis that helps them take ownership of their decisions. Intuitive visualizations reveal the range of outcomes they can expect, grounded in historical data. Predictive models break down the components of fantasy scores, helping them understand the real drivers—and where points are likely to come from. Forward-looking projections help them plan ahead, weigh their options, and make smarter roster moves. And specialized tools, like D/ST Pairing, help them make better use of their bench space.

It's about extracting clearer, more actionable insights from analysis that's otherwise too complex— so you can make informed decisions with greater confidence, rather than relying on rankings alone.

Whether you're discovering my work through JJ Zachariason’s LateRound, where I provide kicker rankings, or through word-of-mouth, you're probably here because you trust in the value of meaningful predictive signals, to make better-informed fantasy decisions.

The live visualizations featured on this page demonstrate just some of the deeper analysis that "goes beyond just rankings": guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, and visuals that depict actual historical "range of outcomes" for similar matchups.

Rankings for Fantasy Football Flex Players

Weekly RB, WR, and TE rankings for 0.5 PPR. · Week 10

Position
Rankings for Fantasy Football Flex Players
Rank Player Proj Tm Matchup
1 20.6 ATL-1 vs. KC
2 19.1 KC-1 @ ATL
3 18.9 CAR-1 @ NO
4 18.7 DET-1 🌐 NE
5 18.2 SF-1 @ DAL
6 17.9 DAL-1 vs. SF
7 17.0 DET-1 🌐 NE
8 16.5 SEA-1 @ LV
9 16.1 CIN-1 vs. PIT
10 16.0 BAL-1 vs. LAC
11 15.9 BUF-1 @ NYJ
12 14.4 JAC-1 @ TEN
13 14.0 LAR-1 @ ARI
14 13.6 PIT-1 @ CIN
15 13.6 DAL-1 vs. SF
16 12.9 CIN-2 vs. PIT
17 12.8 MIN-1 @ GB
18 12.6 IND-1 vs. MIA
19 12.6 HOU-1 @ CLE
20 12.6 TEN-1 vs. JAC
21 12.6 NYG-1 vs. WAS
22 12.5 ARI-1 vs. LAR
23 12.4 CAR-1 @ NO
24 12.1 IND-1 vs. MIA
25 12.0 NO-1 vs. CAR
26 11.9 MIA-1 @ IND
27 11.9 JAC-1 @ TEN
28 11.8 CIN-1 vs. PIT
29 11.8 GB-1 vs. MIN
30 11.5 DAL-2 vs. SF
31 11.5 ATL-1 vs. KC
32 11.5 GB-2 vs. MIN
33 11.3 SF-1 @ DAL
34 11.3 DET-2 🌐 NE
35 11.3 BAL-1 vs. LAC
36 11.0 LV-1 vs. SEA
37 11.0 NE-1 🌐 DET
38 11.0 LV-1 vs. SEA
39 11.0 NYJ-1 vs. BUF
40 11.0 PIT-1 @ CIN
41 11.0 CAR-2 @ NO
42 10.9 HOU-1 @ CLE
43 9.9 CLE-1 vs. HOU
44 9.9 NYJ-1 vs. BUF
45 9.8 LAR-2 @ ARI
46 9.7 NE-1 🌐 DET
47 9.7 KC-1 @ ATL
48 9.7 WAS-1 @ NYG
49 9.7 NYG-1 vs. WAS
50 9.4 CLE-1 vs. HOU
51 9.4 DAL-3 vs. SF
52 9.3 NO-1 vs. CAR
53 9.3 PIT-2 @ CIN
54 9.1 MIA-1 @ IND
55 9.1 BUF-1 @ NYJ
56 8.8 SEA-1 @ LV
57 8.8 ARI-1 vs. LAR
58 8.7 NYG-1 vs. WAS
59 8.5 LAC-1 @ BAL
60 8.3 MIA-2 @ IND
61 8.2 MIN-2 @ GB
62 8.1 PIT-2 @ CIN
63 8.1 WAS-1 @ NYG
64 8.1 TEN-1 vs. JAC
65 8.0 SF-1 @ DAL
66 8.0 BUF-2 @ NYJ
67 7.9 WAS-2 @ NYG
68 7.9 CLE-2 vs. HOU
69 7.8 NYG-2 vs. WAS
70 7.8 MIN-1 @ GB
71 7.7 KC-2 @ ATL
72 7.7 SEA-2 @ LV
73 7.7 DET-1 🌐 NE
74 7.7 NO-2 vs. CAR
75 7.7 KC-2 @ ATL
76 7.7 JAC-2 @ TEN
77 7.6 BUF-1 @ NYJ
78 7.5 SF-2 @ DAL
79 7.5 NO-2 vs. CAR
80 7.5 SF-3 @ DAL
81 7.5 NYJ-2 vs. BUF
82 7.5 HOU-2 @ CLE
83 7.5 TEN-2 vs. JAC
84 7.4 LAR-1 @ ARI
85 7.4 NE-2 🌐 DET
86 7.4 NE-3 🌐 DET
87 7.3 HOU-3 @ CLE
88 7.2 IND-1 vs. MIA
89 7.2 LAR-2 @ ARI
90 7.2 KC-1 @ ATL
91 7.2 SF-2 @ DAL
92 7.2 MIN-2 @ GB
93 7.2 NYJ-3 vs. BUF
94 7.2 JAC-2 @ TEN
95 7.1 ATL-1 vs. KC
96 7.1 LV-1 vs. SEA
97 7.1 NO-3 vs. CAR
98 7.0 NYJ-2 vs. BUF
99 6.9 LV-2 vs. SEA
100 6.7 BUF-3 @ NYJ
101 6.7 CIN-3 vs. PIT
102 6.6 LAC-1 @ BAL
103 6.6 SF-4 @ DAL
104 6.6 NYG-2 vs. WAS
105 6.6 MIA-3 @ IND
106 6.5 LAC-2 @ BAL
107 6.5 GB-3 vs. MIN
108 6.5 DET-3 🌐 NE
109 6.4 LAR-1 @ ARI
110 6.4 NE-1 🌐 DET
111 6.4 PIT-1 @ CIN
112 6.4 ARI-1 vs. LAR
113 6.4 SEA-2 @ LV
114 6.3 NE-4 🌐 DET
115 6.3 HOU-4 @ CLE
116 6.3 NYG-3 vs. WAS
117 6.3 ATL-2 vs. KC
118 6.3 CLE-2 vs. HOU
119 6.3 MIN-1 @ GB
120 6.2 WAS-3 @ NYG
121 6.1 GB-1 vs. MIN
122 6.0 IND-2 vs. MIA
123 5.8 JAC-3 @ TEN
124 5.8 GB-1 vs. MIN
125 5.8 SEA-3 @ LV
126 5.8 LAR-3 @ ARI
127 5.8 CLE-1 vs. HOU
128 5.7 CLE-3 vs. HOU
129 5.7 SEA-4 @ LV
130 5.7 JAC-1 @ TEN
131 5.7 JAC-4 @ TEN
132 5.6 CAR-1 @ NO
133 5.6 WAS-2 @ NYG
134 5.6 GB-2 vs. MIN
135 5.5 CIN-2 vs. PIT
136 5.5 LV-2 vs. SEA
137 5.5 BAL-2 vs. LAC
138 5.5 ARI-2 vs. LAR
139 5.5 LAR-2 @ ARI
140 5.4 BAL-3 vs. LAC
141 5.3 NO-4 vs. CAR
142 5.3 HOU-5 @ CLE
143 5.3 CIN-4 vs. PIT
144 5.3 IND-2 vs. MIA
145 5.3 CIN-1 vs. PIT
146 5.3 ATL-3 vs. KC
147 5.2 BAL-2 vs. LAC
148 5.2 KC-3 @ ATL
149 5.2 TEN-3 vs. JAC
150 5.1 WAS-4 @ NYG
151 5.0 ATL-4 vs. KC
152 5.0 LAC-2 @ BAL
153 5.0 TEN-4 vs. JAC
154 4.9 CAR-3 @ NO
155 4.9 LAC-3 @ BAL
156 4.8 TEN-5 vs. JAC
157 4.8 MIA-1 @ IND
158 4.8 NO-1 vs. CAR
159 4.7 DET-2 🌐 NE
160 4.6 ARI-2 vs. LAR
161 4.6 PIT-2 @ CIN
162 4.5 NE-2 🌐 DET
163 4.5 WAS-1 @ NYG
164 4.4 SEA-1 @ LV
165 4.4 LV-2 vs. SEA
166 4.2 DAL-2 vs. SF
167 3.8 BUF-2 @ NYJ
168 3.8 BUF-3 @ NYJ
169 3.8 NE-2 🌐 DET
170 3.8 LAC-1 @ BAL
171 3.6 HOU-1 @ CLE
172 3.5 DAL-1 vs. SF
173 3.4 MIA-2 @ IND
174 3.4 HOU-2 @ CLE
175 3.4 TEN-2 vs. JAC
176 3.4 MIA-3 @ IND
177 3.3 SEA-3 @ LV
178 3.3 LAC-2 @ BAL
179 3.1 NO-3 vs. CAR
180 3.0 JAC-3 @ TEN

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Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts. Fantasy scores are projected for QB, D/ST, and Kicker, and Strength of Schedule charts project fantasy point deviations for RB, WR, and TE.

D/STs

Player/Team 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Ravens 8.8 5.8 4.3 - 6.7 5.2 7.8 4.2 6.1
Titans 3.6 3.6 3.8 5.4 3.8 6.3 4.7 4.6 4.5

Quarterbacks

Player/Team 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Dak Prescott | DAL 17.8 21.2 17.7 12.9 - 15.3 16.4 17.4 16.9
Carson Beck | ARI 9.5 11.9 13.6 14.7 - 16.0 14.9 16.1 13.8

Kickers

Player/Team 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Chad Ryland | ARI 7.5 5.2 8.4 11.2 - 9.1 9.1 8.5 8.5
Jake Elliott | PHI - 7.3 8.0 10.2 9.5 8.2 5.6 7.4 8.0

The range of possible outcomes is a truly key consideration for anyone serious about strategizing their lineups. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.

Rams Similar historical matchups

Matchup Year Wk Result
Similar Vikings vs Broncos 2019 11 3
Similar Jets vs Bills 2018 10 -4
Boom Cowboys @ Panthers 2023 11 22
Bust Jets vs Bills 2018 10 -4

This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities: Where on the field the play is likely to stop. Get unique visual insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.

Cam Little

  • Less likely to stall upfield. and more likely to kick near the endzone
  • Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range
  • Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.

How to read this chart

Bar charts visualize how points get made. These help you see how each score component is expected, relative to the league average.

QB

49ers Week 10
Brock Purdy

D/ST

Rams Week 10