Predictive insights with statistical integrity

At Subvertadown, a track record of predictive accuracy against other rankings is just the starting point.

What followers here really appreciate is the deeper analysis that helps them take ownership of their decisions. Intuitive visualizations reveal the range of outcomes they can expect, grounded in historical data. Predictive models break down the components of fantasy scores, helping them understand the real drivers—and where points are likely to come from. Forward-looking projections help them plan ahead, weigh their options, and make smarter roster moves. And specialized tools, like D/ST Pairing, help them make better use of their bench space.

It's about extracting clearer, more actionable insights from analysis that's otherwise too complex— so you can make informed decisions with greater confidence, rather than relying on rankings alone.

Whether you're discovering my work through JJ Zachariason’s LateRound, where I provide kicker rankings, or through word-of-mouth, you're probably here because you trust in the value of meaningful predictive signals, to make better-informed fantasy decisions.

The live visualizations featured on this page demonstrate just some of the deeper analysis that "goes beyond just rankings": guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, and visuals that depict actual historical "range of outcomes" for similar matchups.

Rankings for Fantasy Football Flex Players

Weekly RB, WR, and TE rankings for 0.5 PPR. · Week 6

Position
Rankings for Fantasy Football Flex Players
Rank Player Tm Matchup Proj
1 LAR-1 vs. ARI 15.3
2 ATL-1 vs. CHI 15.1
3 SF-1 vs. WAS 14.9
4 KC-1 vs. LAC 14.8
5 IND-1 vs. TEN 14.6
6 BAL-1 @ CLE 14.4
7 BUF-1 @ LV 13.8
8 CHI-1 @ ATL 13.6
9 LAR-1 vs. ARI 13.6
10 DAL-1 @ GB 13.6
11 SF-1 vs. WAS 13.6
12 SEA-1 @ DEN 13.4
13 SF-1 vs. WAS 13.3
14 ATL-1 vs. CHI 13.3
15 BAL-1 @ CLE 13.3
16 DAL-1 @ GB 13.2
17 LV-1 vs. BUF 12.7
18 CAR-1 @ PHI 12.7
19 NE-1 vs. NYJ 12.7
20 LV-1 vs. BUF 12.4
21 KC-1 vs. LAC 12.0
22 IND-1 vs. TEN 11.8
23 ARI-1 @ LAR 11.8
24 PIT-1 @ TB 11.5
25 GB-1 vs. DAL 11.4
26 NO-1 @ NYG 11.4
27 HOU-1 @ JAC 11.2
28 JAC-1 @ HOU 11.1
29 NYJ-1 @ NE 10.6
30 NYG-1 vs. NO 10.6
31 CAR-1 @ PHI 10.4
32 DAL-2 @ GB 10.4
33 LAR-2 vs. ARI 10.2
34 CAR-2 @ PHI 10.0
35 NYG-1 vs. NO 9.8
36 ARI-1 @ LAR 9.8
37 GB-2 vs. DAL 9.7
38 JAC-1 @ HOU 9.7
39 HOU-1 @ JAC 9.6
40 GB-1 vs. DAL 9.6
41 CLE-1 vs. BAL 9.6
42 SEA-1 @ DEN 9.6
43 NE-1 vs. NYJ 9.5
44 GB-1 vs. DAL 9.5
45 TB-1 vs. PIT 9.4
46 IND-1 vs. TEN 9.3
47 NE-1 vs. NYJ 9.1
48 LAC-1 @ KC 9.0
49 CHI-1 @ ATL 9.0
50 PIT-1 @ TB 9.0
51 NYG-1 vs. NO 8.9
52 NYJ-1 @ NE 8.9
53 KC-1 vs. LAC 8.9
54 WAS-1 @ SF 8.8
55 PHI-1 vs. CAR 8.7
56 TEN-1 @ IND 8.7
57 CLE-1 vs. BAL 8.7
58 LV-1 vs. BUF 8.6
59 CHI-2 @ ATL 8.6
60 DEN-1 vs. SEA 8.6
61 TEN-2 @ IND 8.6
62 BUF-1 @ LV 8.5
63 JAC-2 @ HOU 8.4
64 WAS-2 @ SF 8.4
65 IND-2 vs. TEN 8.4
66 PHI-1 vs. CAR 8.3
67 LAR-1 vs. ARI 8.1
68 CLE-1 vs. BAL 8.1
69 NO-2 @ NYG 8.1
70 NE-2 vs. NYJ 8.1
71 CHI-1 @ ATL 8.1
72 PIT-2 @ TB 8.1
73 CAR-1 @ PHI 8.1
74 NO-1 @ NYG 8.1
75 ATL-1 vs. CHI 7.9
76 PIT-1 @ TB 7.8
77 SF-2 vs. WAS 7.7
78 TB-1 vs. PIT 7.7
79 NE-3 vs. NYJ 7.7
80 DEN-1 vs. SEA 7.7
81 BUF-1 @ LV 7.7
82 LAR-2 vs. ARI 7.6
83 TEN-1 @ IND 7.6
84 DEN-2 vs. SEA 7.6
85 PHI-2 vs. CAR 7.6
86 LAC-1 @ KC 7.6
87 TB-2 vs. PIT 7.4
88 JAC-1 @ HOU 7.4
89 PHI-1 vs. CAR 7.4
90 LAC-1 @ KC 7.2
91 BAL-1 @ CLE 7.2
92 ARI-1 @ LAR 7.0
93 WAS-1 @ SF 7.0
94 PHI-2 vs. CAR 7.0
95 LV-2 vs. BUF 7.0
96 DEN-2 vs. SEA 6.9
97 BUF-2 @ LV 6.9
98 TB-1 vs. PIT 6.8
99 WAS-1 @ SF 6.7
100 HOU-2 @ JAC 6.6
101 BUF-3 @ LV 6.6
102 HOU-1 @ JAC 6.6
103 DAL-1 @ GB 6.6
104 IND-3 vs. TEN 6.5
105 CHI-3 @ ATL 6.3
106 DAL-3 @ GB 6.3
107 PIT-2 @ TB 6.2
108 NO-1 @ NYG 6.2
109 HOU-3 @ JAC 6.0
110 LAR-2 vs. ARI 5.9
111 ATL-2 vs. CHI 5.9
112 SEA-1 @ DEN 5.9
113 ARI-2 @ LAR 5.9
114 LAC-2 @ KC 5.8
115 PHI-3 vs. CAR 5.7
116 DEN-1 vs. SEA 5.6
117 NO-2 @ NYG 5.5
118 KC-2 vs. LAC 5.5
119 NYG-2 vs. NO 5.5
120 NE-4 vs. NYJ 5.5
121 CLE-2 vs. BAL 5.5
122 BAL-2 @ CLE 5.5
123 ATL-2 vs. CHI 5.5
124 SEA-2 @ DEN 5.5
125 CLE-3 vs. BAL 5.2
126 NYG-3 vs. NO 5.1
127 JAC-3 @ HOU 5.1
128 WAS-2 @ SF 5.1
129 LV-2 vs. BUF 5.0
130 TB-3 vs. PIT 5.0
131 KC-3 vs. LAC 5.0
132 NO-3 @ NYG 4.9
133 LAC-2 @ KC 4.9
134 TEN-2 @ IND 4.9
135 LV-2 vs. BUF 4.8
136 KC-2 vs. LAC 4.8
137 JAC-2 @ HOU 4.7
138 HOU-4 @ JAC 4.6
139 TB-2 vs. PIT 4.5
140 NYJ-2 @ NE 4.4
141 SEA-3 @ DEN 4.4
142 NYJ-3 @ NE 4.4
143 TEN-3 @ IND 4.4
144 LAR-3 vs. ARI 4.4
145 GB-2 vs. DAL 4.3
146 DEN-3 vs. SEA 4.1
147 PIT-2 @ TB 4.1
148 LV-3 vs. BUF 4.1
149 GB-3 vs. DAL 4.1
150 SF-3 vs. WAS 4.0
151 PHI-4 vs. CAR 4.0
152 DEN-4 vs. SEA 4.0
153 SF-2 vs. WAS 4.0
154 CHI-4 @ ATL 4.0
155 SEA-2 @ DEN 3.9
156 BAL-3 @ CLE 3.9
157 IND-4 vs. TEN 3.9
158 SEA-4 @ DEN 3.9
159 LAC-3 @ KC 3.8
160 TEN-4 @ IND 3.7
161 BUF-4 @ LV 3.7
162 WAS-3 @ SF 3.7
163 JAC-4 @ HOU 3.7
164 BUF-2 @ LV 3.6
165 CHI-2 @ ATL 3.6
166 NYG-2 vs. NO 3.6
167 BUF-5 @ LV 3.6
168 PIT-3 @ TB 3.6
169 BAL-2 @ CLE 3.5
170 NE-2 vs. NYJ 3.4
171 IND-2 vs. TEN 3.4
172 WAS-3 @ SF 3.4
173 NYJ-2 @ NE 3.4
174 BUF-3 @ LV 3.4
175 DAL-2 @ GB 3.1
176 TB-3 vs. PIT 3.1
177 GB-3 vs. DAL 3.0
178 CLE-2 vs. BAL 2.9
179 NO-3 @ NYG 2.9
180 NYG-3 vs. NO 2.9

Refreshed 46 minutes ago

Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts. Fantasy scores are projected for QB, D/ST, and Kicker, and Strength of Schedule charts project fantasy point deviations for RB, WR, and TE.

D/STs

Player/Team 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Patriots 10.8 4.7 8.2 6.2 5.1 - 6.5 5.2 6.5 5.9 8.1 5.6 6.6
Panthers 9.7 6.5 5.2 6.2 5.8 5.5 6.8 5.2 6.2 5.4 5.3 4.7 6.1

Quarterbacks

Player/Team 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Josh Allen | BUF 24.9 - 21.0 18.2 18.7 19.4 20.5 18.3 19.7 20.9 19.6 19.0 20.0
Brock Purdy | SF 21.4 20.5 - 20.0 18.4 17.7 17.2 18.4 17.3 18.2 16.8 17.9 18.5

This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities: Where on the field the play is likely to stop. Get unique visual insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.

Tyler Bass

  • Not significantly different from the average kicker situation.
  • Less likely to take long kicks, despite drives stopping upfield.
  • Fewer drives stalling before reaching kicking range
  • Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.

How to read this chart

The range of possible outcomes is a truly key consideration for anyone serious about strategizing their lineups. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.

Patriots Similar historical matchups

Matchup Year Wk Result
Similar Patriots @ Jets 2021 2 16
Similar Jaguars vs Texans 2022 5 4
Boom Patriots @ Jets 2021 2 16
Bust Dolphins @ Jaguars 2015 2 -1