Predictive insights with statistical integrity

My fantasy rankings and accuracy reports get too much of the attention.

What people really stay for is a shared love of extracting predictive insights. We don’t just want rankings. We want to understand the real drivers. We want confidence in the reasoning behind our fantasy decisions.

At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.

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Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.

Week 4 Let's Bring It In DETROIT, MI - SEPTEMBER 27: Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) leaps high for a touchdown catch during the Detroit Lions versus New York Jets game on Sunday September 27, 2026 at Ford Field in Detroit, MI. (Photo by Steven King/Icon Sportswire)

Week 4 Let's Bring It In

Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts.

Player/Team 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Ravens 9.7 3.8 7.0 4.5 2.7 2.2 8.2 4.9 4.7 - 7.6 5.0 6.8 3.5 5.4
Vikings 9.7 6.2 - 5.6 3.1 4.7 6.9 2.7 5.3 5.3 5.1 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.4

Player/Team 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Josh Allen | BUF 20.5 17.7 20.0 - 18.7 18.2 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.1 17.8 18.7 17.9 18.4
Tyler Shough | NO 20.4 15.0 14.5 14.4 - 16.4 17.3 14.7 15.3 16.2 15.5 14.8 17.1 15.9 16.0

Player/Team 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Brandon Aubrey | DAL 10.3 9.6 8.2 9.2 12.0 9.4 8.8 8.0 7.9 6.9 - 7.6 8.5 7.8 9.0
Nick Folk | ATL 10.1 8.3 7.9 7.9 8.6 8.1 7.6 - 8.9 8.3 8.1 8.0 9.9 8.5 8.6

Members here mostly care what’s behind the numbers: rigorous models. But the website goes further by also interpreting the reasons behind each recommendation. So try hovering over the tool-tips for deeper explanations, to help you reason your weekly pick.

Quarterbacks

Wk 4 Proj. Stats
Player Matchup Wk 4 Wk 5 Err. PaY RuY PTD Int.
Josh Allen BUF vs. NE 20.5 17.7 7.2 232 32 1.9 0.8
Tyler Shough NO vs. ATL 20.4 15.0 6.2 285 26 1.4 0.9

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D/STs

Wk 4 Proj. Stats
Team Wk 4 Wk 5 Hold? Err.
Ravens vs. Titans 9.7 3.8 - 5.2
Vikings vs. Dolphins 9.7 6.2 - 5.2

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Kickers

Wk 4 Proj. Risk
Player Matchup Wk 4 Wk 5
Hold? 		Err. 4thD Missed Ceil Fl DD% LD% FG XP
Impl. score
Brandon Aubrey DAL @ HOU 10.3 9.6 Y 4.0 1.3 0.3 14.5 6.5 56% 30% 2.0 2.3 22.7
Nick Folk ATL @ NO 10.1 8.3 Y 3.5 1.3 0.5 14.1 7.3 42% 30% 1.8 2.2 22.6

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‘Strength of Schedule (SoS) forecasts the difficulty for a team’s, for future weeks. These charts are based on multi-dimensional predictive models, which makes them much more reliable than plain “fantasy points allowed” that you might find elsewhere, if you’re making your roster decisions based on opponents.

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Running Backs

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Vikings 21.6 4.0 5.4 3.0 - 3.7 1.0 2.1 4.4 0.3 -1.2 3.8 0.8 2.2 0.6 1.3 2.1
Texans 22.0 0.3 2.7 0.1 -2.5 0.9 - 0.9 -2.0 2.7 1.5 -0.6 -2.6 -1.8 -1.6 2.5 0.0

Wide Receivers

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Texans 25.3 -0.3 3.3 -4.1 -2.1 1.8 - 2.5 -1.8 2.5 3.5 -3.0 -1.1 0.4 -1.4 -6.9 -0.5
Giants 23.6 2.1 2.0 0.6 3.0 2.9 - 0.9 4.7 1.0 3.7 3.6 1.5 3.2 4.3 5.9 2.9

Tight Ends

Player/Team Baseline Next 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AVG
Texans 13.5 -0.2 3.6 -3.0 -2.0 0.8 - -0.2 -1.0 0.9 -0.6 -2.5 2.6 -1.1 -3.1 -0.9 -0.5
Colts 12.7 -0.4 3.2 -3.0 -1.9 0.1 -2.4 3.6 3.1 -0.2 0.8 - -3.5 -3.6 1.9 -0.9 -0.2

Betting lines: A portfolio of suggested likely betting options, among spreads and O/Us. In addition to scaling the level of each wager, it also suggests whether to bet near opening or closing.

Bets for Open

Spreads

Original Spreads (Tuesday) and Updates Current Spreads (if placed after Tuesday)
Orig. Pick Orig. Line Opponent Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current
Cowboys 2.5 Texans $5 - - 2.5 -1.7 $5

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O/U

Original O/U (Tuesday) and Updates Current O/U (if placed after Tuesday)
Home Away Orig. Pick Orig. Line Orig. Bet Update Revised Pick? Curr. Line Bet Until Current
Bengals Jaguars U 51.3 $5 - - 51.3 49.7 $5

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Preview how I turn stats into useful reasoning! The pros-and-cons lists have extracted statistical drivers from key data. This can supplement your kicker choices, no matter what rankings you use!

Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.

Pros Cons
Brandon Aubrey DAL @ HOU
  • highest chance for long kicks
  • highest chance offense gains lead
  • 2nd lowest trust in kicker
Nick Folk ATL @ NO
  • 6th highest chance offense gains lead
  • upgrade to own team offense
  • 6th highest chance big plays allowed
  • 8th lowest chance for long kicks

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View all kickers for this week

We’re the only source with distinct models supporting different settings: a dedicated D/ST model for ESPN settings, and a dedicated kicker model for Decimal scoring.

Live Week 4 projections

Kicker

Player Standard Decimal
Brandon Aubrey | DAL 10.3 10.5

D/ST

Team ESPN Yahoo! YDB
Ravens 9.7 9.3 9.2
Vikings 9.7 9.7 11.3

Score expectations for all 32 teams, trained to account for all team aspects on both sides of the ball. QBs, D/STs, and Kickers.

Quarterback

Week 4

Josh Allen | BUF

20.5

Tyler Shough | NO

20.4

Brock Purdy | SF

19.4

Lamar Jackson | BAL

19.1

Jared Goff | DET

18.9

Patrick Mahomes | KC

18.4
View Full Projections

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This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities! Get unique insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.

Brandon Aubrey

  • More likely to stall upfield, and less likely to kick near the endzone.
  • Less likely to take long kicks, despite drives stopping upfield.

How to read this chart

It’s not only the projection that matters! It’s key to consider the range of possible outcomes. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.

Ravens Similar historical matchups

Matchup Year Wk Result
Similar Jets vs Broncos 2024 4 7
Similar Jaguars vs Jets 2018 4 8
Boom Jets vs Patriots 2024 3 16
Bust Bengals vs Patriots 2024 1 3

Specialized advice for Survivor, based on my own game score models—and my own optimization algorithm. Covers 3 surviving pathways all season!

Path 3A

Week Team
1 DET
2 KC
3 SF
4 BUF
5 JAC
6 LAR
7 CAR
8 DAL
9 SEA
10 IND
11 CHI
12 CIN
13 DEN
14 LV
15 PIT
16 NYG
17 HOU
Longevity 3.7

Path 3B

Week Team
1 DET
2 KC
3 SF
4 SEA
5 DAL
6 LAR
7 CAR
8 JAC
9 CHI
10 IND
11 BUF
12 CIN
13 DEN
14 BAL
15 NYG
16 ATL
17 LV
Longevity 4.0