Week 1

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Player/Team
Baseline
Next 4
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AVG
Playoffs
Chargers 11.0 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.5 1.6 0.1 - 1.1 1.1 -0.3 1.3 1.8 -0.3 0.9 1.7 0.5 1.6 0.9 1.3
Lions 11.0 -0.1 1.1 -1.0 0.4 -1.1 0.5 - 0.9 0.9 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 -0.5 0.2 0.0
Ravens 13.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.4 1.3 0.0 0.3 -0.1 0.7 0.1 -0.3 0.2 - -0.2 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.3 0.2
Raiders 13.9 0.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.6 -0.2 0.7 1.0 -0.6 -0.5 0.6 -0.4 -0.4 - 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.7
Eagles 12.0 -0.5 0.4 -1.0 -1.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.2 - -0.1 -0.1 0.6 -0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3
Vikings 10.9 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -1.3 1.2 0.5 - 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 1.1 0.7 -0.2 1.1 0.8 -0.6 0.2 0.4
Bengals 13.1 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.9 0.0 -0.4 - -1.0 -0.3 0.8 -0.1 -1.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.9 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3
Steelers 13.9 -0.3 0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.9 -0.5 0.0 - -1.1 -0.9 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3
Packers 11.7 -0.6 0.2 -1.4 0.1 -1.3 0.0 -0.6 0.3 -0.6 -0.6 0.0 - -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.5 -1.3 -0.4 -0.5
Saints 13.3 0.5 0.2 -0.6 1.1 1.2 1.8 -0.2 0.1 - 1.5 1.0 0.1 -0.5 1.5 -0.4 -0.8 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.7
Buccaneers 10.5 0.6 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 -0.2 1.0 0.5 - 1.0 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.6 1.0
Colts 12.9 -0.1 0.1 -0.7 0.5 -0.3 -0.6 0.9 0.6 -0.6 0.6 1.4 0.1 1.2 - -0.7 -1.0 1.0 -0.3 0.1 -0.1
Texans 13.0 0.9 0.1 1.4 1.0 1.2 -0.1 0.5 1.4 - 0.5 -0.1 1.4 1.7 0.1 -0.4 1.6 0.1 -0.5 0.6 0.4
Jaguars 11.6 -0.4 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -0.8 -0.3 0.1 - -0.3 -0.8 -1.3 -1.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3
Titans 13.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.5 0.1 -0.3 - -0.2 0.0 -0.7 -0.3 0.6 -0.2 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.1
Panthers 10.7 0.0 -0.2 0.6 -0.7 0.2 - -0.7 -0.8 -0.5 -0.1 0.7 0.1 -1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0
Seahawks 12.4 -0.1 -0.3 0.8 -1.0 0.0 0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.5 - -0.8 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.5 -0.6 -0.1 -0.1
Cowboys 12.8 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -0.1 -0.8 -1.5 1.0 -0.1 0.5 0.6 0.9 -1.3 - -0.2 0.8 0.5 -0.1 0.3
Bears 13.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -0.4 -0.7 0.3 -0.2 -1.1 -1.1 - -0.5 0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -1.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4
Chiefs 13.8 0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 - 0.2 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.0 0.7 -0.5 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.3
49ers 14.3 0.3 -0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.0 -0.3 1.0 - 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.3 -0.4 0.2 0.6 -0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1
Rams 15.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 -0.7 -0.4 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.6 -0.7 0.7 - 0.7 0.7 -0.4 0.4 -0.2 -1.3 0.1 -0.4
Dolphins 11.7 -0.4 -0.4 -1.0 -0.5 0.2 -0.6 - -1.3 -0.6 -0.5 0.1 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5
Giants 12.2 0.1 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.9 -0.7 0.3 0.1 - -0.7 -0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1
Commanders 12.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 1.0 0.2 -0.6 - 0.4 0.3 -0.3 -0.3 1.3 -0.6 -0.3 0.8 1.0 -0.3 0.1 0.5
Bills 13.8 0.1 -0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.1 0.4 - 0.3 0.1 -1.1 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 -0.2
Cardinals 16.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -1.0 -1.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -1.0 0.2 -0.8 -0.1 0.3 - -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2
Jets 11.7 0.0 -0.7 0.1 0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.7 -0.1 - 0.1 1.1 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.7
Falcons 13.7 -0.4 -0.8 0.2 -0.8 -0.3 0.8 1.2 0.8 -1.1 -0.8 0.6 - 0.0 0.8 -0.7 -1.1 0.0 0.9 0.0 -0.1
Browns 14.5 -0.5 -0.9 -1.1 -0.3 0.3 -0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 -0.3 - -0.4 0.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
Broncos 11.8 -0.1 -1.1 0.4 0.5 -0.2 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.4 -0.6 - 0.1 -0.2 0.5 -0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.4
Patriots 12.9 -0.4 -1.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 - 0.2 0.4 0.4 -0.7 -0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.4

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