Week 1

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Player/Team
Baseline
Next 4
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AVG
Playoffs
Lions 31.4 0.5 4.2 -1.8 2.3 -2.6 -0.1 - 3.2 3.3 -2.0 0.0 1.1 3.4 1.8 1.2 1.2 -2.5 -1.0 0.7 -0.8
Chargers 29.3 3.0 3.9 3.4 1.3 3.2 6.4 1.7 - 4.7 3.8 -2.5 4.2 6.4 1.0 1.4 5.0 0.6 6.0 3.2 3.9
Ravens 24.7 2.5 3.5 2.6 3.8 0.1 3.8 -0.9 0.5 0.0 2.9 -1.5 -0.2 1.8 - 0.8 0.2 1.6 -0.2 1.2 0.6
Saints 26.1 1.2 3.0 -0.1 1.9 -0.2 5.2 0.1 -0.3 - 3.4 4.1 0.6 -1.2 4.8 -0.5 -0.7 3.8 3.0 1.7 2.0
Bengals 29.5 0.4 2.9 0.7 -2.6 0.7 -2.0 - -1.6 -1.9 2.4 -1.0 -6.5 0.1 -2.0 0.0 -2.1 0.4 0.4 -0.8 -0.4
Raiders 22.7 2.2 2.2 2.7 1.3 2.8 0.7 1.9 3.3 -1.1 -1.1 3.3 0.8 -2.3 - 2.5 3.8 1.2 0.5 1.4 1.8
Vikings 25.9 0.9 2.1 0.0 -1.2 2.6 2.4 - 2.6 3.3 -1.6 -0.3 -0.1 2.7 2.4 0.9 4.5 2.6 -1.0 1.3 2.0
Eagles 27.0 -1.7 1.7 -2.9 -5.6 -0.1 0.3 -1.5 -5.2 -2.1 -0.6 - -0.3 0.8 0.9 -1.0 1.9 -0.5 -1.6 -1.0 0.0
Colts 28.2 1.1 1.6 0.2 3.0 -0.3 -2.3 1.8 1.7 -1.1 2.4 3.1 1.3 3.7 - -1.2 -3.2 2.6 -1.8 0.7 -0.8
Buccaneers 28.6 2.2 1.6 1.7 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.3 0.0 2.5 1.5 - 4.8 -3.1 3.4 1.1 2.8 3.8 2.5 2.1 3.1
Packers 28.6 -1.1 1.2 -3.1 -0.2 -2.3 0.1 -1.3 2.3 -1.2 -0.6 -0.1 - 0.4 0.9 -1.0 -0.2 -1.2 -6.3 -0.8 -2.6
Cardinals 23.3 -0.5 0.7 1.8 -1.8 -2.6 1.3 1.1 1.5 0.0 -1.2 1.1 -0.9 -0.2 1.2 - -0.3 0.7 -1.4 0.1 -0.3
Steelers 24.3 -0.5 0.7 0.4 -1.3 -1.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.3 - -2.4 -1.5 0.6 -0.4 -4.5 0.2 -0.4 -2.5 -1.1 -0.9
Panthers 27.0 0.5 0.6 2.2 -2.4 1.7 - -1.3 -0.5 -0.2 1.2 2.7 0.8 -4.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 -1.0 2.1 0.2 0.4
Texans 28.0 3.1 0.5 4.8 3.4 3.9 -1.1 2.4 4.3 - 3.4 -0.5 4.4 5.1 -0.1 -1.2 5.4 0.7 -4.3 1.9 0.6
Giants 26.0 -0.4 0.3 -1.8 -0.9 0.9 -1.7 1.3 1.3 - -1.3 -0.9 2.0 1.8 -0.1 0.8 0.0 -1.1 0.4 0.1 -0.2
Titans 24.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 2.0 -0.6 -0.9 - 0.5 1.7 -0.6 -1.1 3.3 -0.4 0.4 -0.4 0.2 -0.1
Bears 27.1 -1.4 0.2 0.0 -4.6 -1.0 -1.5 0.7 0.5 -4.5 -1.9 - -0.3 2.4 0.2 -2.5 -2.5 -0.3 1.0 -0.9 -0.6
Commanders 25.8 1.6 0.0 1.0 2.4 3.0 0.7 -4.6 - 1.8 2.2 -0.6 -4.4 2.1 -2.9 -0.4 1.6 3.1 -0.3 0.3 1.5
Seahawks 31.4 0.3 0.0 1.3 -1.8 1.6 0.8 1.1 2.2 -2.9 0.3 0.2 - -1.3 -4.8 1.1 0.1 2.1 -1.1 -0.1 0.4
Cowboys 32.7 0.1 -0.1 1.1 0.4 -1.1 1.0 -1.9 -7.4 1.1 0.1 1.5 0.7 2.6 -5.4 - 0.5 2.6 2.0 -0.1 1.7
49ers 27.6 1.1 -0.1 0.8 0.7 2.9 1.7 -4.1 2.8 - -0.6 1.7 3.4 2.1 -0.8 1.1 3.2 -0.2 0.6 0.9 1.2
Bills 26.3 1.7 -0.2 2.6 1.8 2.8 -2.1 -0.1 - 1.2 -2.1 -2.2 0.2 1.8 0.9 -0.5 1.2 0.1 -1.5 0.2 -0.1
Rams 32.5 -0.7 -0.7 -1.7 0.8 -1.0 -1.5 1.6 -0.2 3.3 -1.6 0.2 - 2.1 3.9 -1.0 1.5 1.3 -2.2 0.3 0.2
Jaguars 28.4 -0.2 -0.8 0.0 1.9 -2.0 -0.7 1.2 - -0.7 -0.7 -3.8 -2.3 -2.1 -0.9 -5.2 0.8 -0.2 -1.6 -1.1 -0.3
Browns 21.3 -0.6 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 0.3 -0.7 0.6 -1.5 -1.3 2.0 -0.1 - -1.7 0.2 0.9 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0
Dolphins 24.3 -0.6 -1.4 -1.7 -0.1 0.9 -1.8 - -2.6 0.1 0.6 1.1 -1.7 -2.0 0.2 -0.8 -1.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6
Patriots 29.4 0.0 -1.8 1.2 1.1 -0.7 -0.7 0.5 0.7 -0.6 1.1 3.9 - 3.1 1.3 1.8 -3.9 -1.2 2.6 0.5 -0.8
Falcons 25.1 -1.2 -2.2 1.8 -1.1 -3.4 3.0 3.5 2.6 -1.5 -1.8 3.0 - 0.7 4.5 -2.2 -2.7 1.3 3.2 0.5 0.6
Chiefs 28.9 0.1 -2.2 1.8 -0.1 0.7 - 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.7 2.7 0.7 0.3 2.9 -1.4 -2.0 0.6 3.6 0.8 0.8
Jets 23.6 0.7 -2.4 1.1 4.0 0.2 0.2 1.7 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.9 3.6 -1.2 - 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.3 1.2 2.3
Broncos 30.8 0.2 -4.5 2.8 2.8 -0.1 3.4 3.3 1.5 2.3 -1.1 - 0.0 -0.2 1.4 -1.1 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.9 1.1

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