Week 1

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Player/Team
Baseline
Next 4
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AVG
Playoffs
Lions 25.1 0.5 3.7 -1.5 2.0 -2.2 -0.1 - 2.7 2.9 -1.7 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.5 1.1 1.0 -2.2 -0.9 0.6 -0.7
Chargers 22.9 2.6 3.5 3.1 1.2 2.8 5.6 1.5 - 4.1 3.4 -2.2 3.7 5.5 1.0 1.2 4.4 0.6 5.3 2.8 3.4
Ravens 19.2 2.2 3.0 2.3 3.4 0.2 3.3 -0.7 0.6 0.1 2.6 -1.4 -0.1 1.6 - 0.8 0.3 1.5 0.0 1.1 0.6
Bengals 23.3 0.4 2.7 0.6 -2.2 0.7 -1.8 - -1.4 -1.6 2.1 -0.8 -5.7 0.1 -1.7 0.0 -1.8 0.3 0.4 -0.6 -0.4
Saints 20.2 1.0 2.6 0.0 1.8 -0.3 4.6 0.1 -0.2 - 2.9 3.6 0.5 -1.0 4.1 -0.4 -0.5 3.4 2.6 1.5 1.8
Raiders 17.0 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.1 2.4 0.6 1.7 2.9 -0.9 -0.9 2.8 0.7 -2.0 - 2.1 3.2 1.1 0.4 1.2 1.6
Vikings 19.7 0.8 1.8 0.0 -1.0 2.3 2.0 - 2.2 2.8 -1.5 -0.2 0.0 2.3 2.1 0.7 3.9 2.3 -0.8 1.2 1.8
Eagles 20.7 -1.5 1.6 -2.5 -5.0 0.0 0.2 -1.2 -4.5 -1.7 -0.4 - -0.2 0.7 0.7 -0.8 1.7 -0.3 -1.3 -0.8 0.0
Buccaneers 22.2 2.0 1.5 1.6 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.1 0.1 2.2 1.4 - 4.2 -2.7 3.0 1.0 2.6 3.3 2.3 1.8 2.7
Colts 22.3 1.0 1.3 0.2 2.6 -0.1 -2.0 1.6 1.4 -1.0 2.1 2.7 1.2 3.3 - -1.1 -2.7 2.3 -1.5 0.7 -0.6
Packers 22.5 -0.9 1.0 -2.6 -0.1 -1.9 0.1 -1.0 1.9 -1.0 -0.5 -0.1 - 0.3 0.7 -0.8 -0.1 -1.1 -5.5 -0.7 -2.2
Steelers 18.6 -0.4 0.7 0.3 -1.0 -1.5 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 - -2.0 -1.3 0.6 -0.3 -4.0 0.3 -0.2 -2.1 -0.9 -0.7
Cardinals 18.0 -0.4 0.5 1.5 -1.5 -2.2 1.0 0.9 1.3 0.0 -1.1 0.9 -0.8 -0.2 1.0 - -0.3 0.6 -1.2 0.0 -0.3
Panthers 20.8 0.5 0.5 1.9 -2.0 1.5 - -1.1 -0.3 -0.2 1.1 2.3 0.7 -4.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 -0.8 1.8 0.2 0.4
Giants 19.8 -0.3 0.4 -1.6 -0.7 0.8 -1.4 1.2 1.1 - -1.1 -0.6 1.8 1.5 0.0 0.7 0.1 -1.1 0.4 0.1 -0.2
Texans 22.1 2.7 0.4 4.2 3.0 3.5 -0.9 2.1 3.8 - 2.9 -0.3 3.9 4.5 0.0 -0.9 4.7 0.6 -3.8 1.7 0.5
Titans 18.5 0.1 0.2 0.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 1.7 -0.4 -0.7 - 0.4 1.5 -0.5 -0.8 2.8 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 0.2 -0.1
Bears 21.2 -1.2 0.2 0.0 -4.1 -0.8 -1.3 0.6 0.4 -4.0 -1.6 - -0.3 2.0 0.2 -2.1 -2.2 -0.2 0.9 -0.8 -0.5
Commanders 20.2 1.4 0.0 0.9 2.1 2.7 0.7 -4.0 - 1.6 2.0 -0.5 -3.8 1.8 -2.4 -0.3 1.5 2.6 -0.3 0.3 1.3
Seahawks 25.3 0.3 0.0 1.1 -1.5 1.4 0.8 1.0 2.0 -2.6 0.3 0.2 - -1.1 -4.1 1.0 0.2 1.9 -0.9 0.0 0.4
Cowboys 26.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.4 -1.0 0.9 -1.7 -6.5 1.0 0.1 1.4 0.7 2.2 -4.8 - 0.4 2.2 1.7 -0.1 1.4
49ers 21.6 1.0 -0.1 0.7 0.7 2.6 1.5 -3.5 2.4 - -0.4 1.5 2.9 1.8 -0.6 1.1 2.8 -0.1 0.5 0.9 1.1
Bills 20.3 1.5 -0.2 2.3 1.6 2.5 -1.9 -0.1 - 1.1 -1.9 -1.8 0.2 1.6 0.7 -0.4 1.1 0.1 -1.3 0.2 0.0
Rams 26.3 -0.6 -0.5 -1.5 0.7 -0.9 -1.4 1.4 -0.2 2.8 -1.3 0.2 - 1.8 3.4 -0.8 1.4 1.2 -1.8 0.3 0.2
Jaguars 22.4 -0.2 -0.6 0.0 1.7 -1.7 -0.6 1.0 - -0.6 -0.5 -3.3 -1.9 -1.7 -0.8 -4.5 0.7 -0.2 -1.2 -0.9 -0.2
Browns 16.1 -0.5 -1.0 -0.6 -0.6 0.4 -0.5 0.6 -1.2 -1.1 1.7 0.0 - -1.4 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Dolphins 18.2 -0.5 -1.2 -1.4 -0.1 0.7 -1.5 - -2.2 0.1 0.5 1.0 -1.4 -1.7 0.2 -0.7 -0.8 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5
Patriots 23.4 0.0 -1.7 1.2 1.0 -0.5 -0.5 0.6 0.7 -0.5 1.0 3.3 - 2.6 1.2 1.6 -3.4 -0.9 2.3 0.5 -0.7
Falcons 19.3 -1.1 -1.9 1.6 -0.9 -3.1 2.6 3.0 2.3 -1.3 -1.5 2.5 - 0.5 3.8 -1.8 -2.3 1.2 2.8 0.5 0.6
Chiefs 23.1 0.1 -1.9 1.7 -0.1 0.7 - 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.7 2.4 0.7 0.4 2.6 -1.2 -1.8 0.7 3.1 0.8 0.7
Jets 18.0 0.7 -2.0 1.0 3.5 0.2 0.2 1.5 0.5 0.3 1.2 0.8 3.1 -1.0 - 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.1 1.1 2.0
Broncos 24.6 0.2 -4.0 2.5 2.5 0.0 2.9 2.9 1.3 2.1 -0.9 - 0.1 -0.1 1.3 -0.9 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.8 1.0

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