Week 1

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Player/Team
Baseline
Next 4
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AVG
Playoffs
Lions 37.7 0.6 4.7 -2.0 2.5 -3.0 -0.1 - 3.6 3.8 -2.2 0.0 1.2 3.9 2.0 1.3 1.4 -2.7 -1.2 0.8 -0.8
Chargers 35.6 3.3 4.4 3.8 1.4 3.6 7.3 1.9 - 5.3 4.3 -2.8 4.7 7.3 1.0 1.5 5.6 0.6 6.8 3.5 4.3
Ravens 30.2 2.7 3.9 2.8 4.2 0.0 4.3 -1.1 0.5 -0.1 3.2 -1.7 -0.3 2.0 - 0.8 0.2 1.7 -0.3 1.3 0.5
Saints 32.0 1.3 3.5 -0.1 2.1 -0.2 5.9 0.0 -0.5 - 3.8 4.6 0.6 -1.4 5.4 -0.7 -0.9 4.3 3.4 1.9 2.3
Bengals 35.8 0.4 3.2 0.8 -3.0 0.8 -2.3 - -1.9 -2.3 2.7 -1.2 -7.4 0.0 -2.4 0.0 -2.4 0.5 0.3 -0.9 -0.5
Raiders 28.4 2.6 2.5 3.1 1.4 3.2 0.8 2.2 3.8 -1.3 -1.3 3.8 0.9 -2.6 - 2.9 4.3 1.3 0.6 1.6 2.1
Vikings 32.1 1.0 2.4 0.0 -1.5 3.0 2.7 - 2.9 3.8 -1.8 -0.4 -0.3 3.0 2.7 1.0 5.2 2.8 -1.2 1.5 2.3
Eagles 33.3 -2.0 1.8 -3.4 -6.3 -0.2 0.3 -1.7 -5.9 -2.5 -0.7 - -0.4 0.9 1.0 -1.1 2.2 -0.6 -1.9 -1.2 -0.1
Colts 34.1 1.2 1.8 0.3 3.3 -0.4 -2.7 1.9 2.0 -1.2 2.6 3.5 1.5 4.1 - -1.3 -3.7 2.9 -2.1 0.8 -0.9
Buccaneers 35.1 2.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 2.8 3.0 2.4 -0.1 2.7 1.7 - 5.5 -3.5 3.8 1.1 3.1 4.3 2.7 2.3 3.4
Packers 34.7 -1.2 1.4 -3.5 -0.3 -2.6 0.1 -1.5 2.7 -1.5 -0.6 -0.2 - 0.5 1.0 -1.2 -0.3 -1.4 -7.0 -0.9 -2.9
Cardinals 28.5 -0.5 0.9 2.1 -2.1 -3.0 1.6 1.2 1.8 -0.1 -1.3 1.2 -1.1 -0.3 1.5 - -0.3 0.8 -1.6 0.1 -0.4
Steelers 30.0 -0.6 0.8 0.5 -1.5 -2.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.5 - -2.7 -1.7 0.7 -0.6 -5.0 0.2 -0.5 -3.0 -1.3 -1.1
Panthers 33.2 0.6 0.6 2.5 -2.7 1.9 - -1.4 -0.7 -0.3 1.4 3.0 0.8 -5.4 1.8 0.6 0.0 -1.2 2.3 0.2 0.4
Texans 33.8 3.5 0.5 5.3 3.8 4.3 -1.4 2.6 4.8 - 3.9 -0.6 4.9 5.8 -0.2 -1.4 6.1 0.7 -4.9 2.2 0.7
Giants 32.2 -0.5 0.3 -1.9 -1.2 0.9 -2.0 1.4 1.5 - -1.4 -1.1 2.3 2.0 -0.2 0.9 -0.1 -1.1 0.5 0.0 -0.2
Titans 29.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.6 2.2 -0.7 -1.2 - 0.6 1.9 -0.6 -1.4 3.8 -0.5 0.4 -0.6 0.2 -0.2
Bears 33.1 -1.6 0.1 0.0 -5.1 -1.3 -1.7 0.9 0.5 -5.0 -2.2 - -0.4 2.8 0.2 -2.8 -2.9 -0.4 1.2 -1.0 -0.7
Seahawks 37.4 0.3 0.1 1.4 -2.1 1.8 0.8 1.3 2.5 -3.3 0.3 0.2 - -1.6 -5.4 1.1 0.1 2.3 -1.3 -0.1 0.4
Commanders 31.5 1.8 0.0 1.2 2.8 3.4 0.7 -5.2 - 2.0 2.3 -0.8 -4.9 2.4 -3.4 -0.5 1.7 3.5 -0.4 0.3 1.6
49ers 33.7 1.2 0.0 0.8 0.7 3.2 1.9 -4.7 3.1 - -0.8 1.8 3.8 2.4 -1.0 1.2 3.7 -0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4
Bills 32.4 2.0 -0.2 2.9 2.1 3.1 -2.2 -0.2 - 1.2 -2.2 -2.5 0.2 2.0 1.0 -0.6 1.3 0.1 -1.8 0.3 -0.1
Cowboys 39.2 0.0 -0.2 1.2 0.4 -1.2 1.1 -2.2 -8.2 1.3 0.1 1.7 0.8 3.0 -6.0 - 0.6 3.0 2.2 -0.1 1.9
Rams 38.6 -0.8 -0.9 -1.8 0.8 -1.2 -1.7 1.8 -0.3 3.7 -1.9 0.3 - 2.4 4.4 -1.2 1.7 1.5 -2.5 0.3 0.2
Jaguars 34.4 -0.3 -1.0 0.0 2.2 -2.4 -0.8 1.3 - -0.9 -0.8 -4.4 -2.6 -2.5 -1.0 -5.9 0.9 -0.2 -1.9 -1.2 -0.4
Browns 26.4 -0.7 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 0.2 -0.9 0.6 -1.8 -1.5 2.3 -0.2 - -2.0 0.2 1.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1
Dolphins 30.4 -0.7 -1.6 -2.0 -0.1 1.0 -2.1 - -3.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 -2.0 -2.3 0.2 -0.9 -1.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7
Patriots 35.4 -0.1 -2.0 1.3 1.2 -0.8 -0.9 0.5 0.8 -0.7 1.1 4.5 - 3.5 1.4 2.0 -4.3 -1.4 2.9 0.6 -0.9
Chiefs 34.7 0.0 -2.4 1.9 -0.2 0.8 - 2.2 1.9 1.2 0.7 3.1 0.8 0.3 3.3 -1.7 -2.2 0.6 4.2 0.9 0.9
Falcons 30.8 -1.3 -2.5 2.1 -1.2 -3.7 3.4 4.0 2.9 -1.8 -2.2 3.4 - 0.9 5.1 -2.5 -3.2 1.5 3.6 0.6 0.6
Jets 29.2 0.8 -2.7 1.2 4.6 0.2 0.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 1.5 0.9 4.1 -1.4 - 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.6 1.3 2.5
Broncos 37.0 0.2 -5.0 3.1 3.0 -0.2 3.8 3.7 1.7 2.6 -1.3 - -0.1 -0.3 1.5 -1.3 0.5 1.5 1.7 0.9 1.2

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