Week 1

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

Player/Team
Baseline
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AVG
Playoffs
Chargers 19.6 1.3 2.9 2.0 -0.2 0.4 1.9 -0.5 - 0.5 0.4 -0.4 1.5 2.3 -0.9 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.4 0.9 1.3
Raiders 20.0 -0.5 1.5 -1.4 -1.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 -1.3 -2.2 -0.2 -1.2 -1.4 - -1.0 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 -0.7 -0.2
Lions 22.4 0.2 1.5 -1.0 1.2 -0.9 1.0 - 2.2 2.1 0.9 0.2 -0.4 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.2
Ravens 20.7 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.4 1.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.7 1.1 -0.4 -0.4 -1.1 - -0.4 0.2 1.4 -0.9 0.2 0.2
Steelers 22.3 -0.4 1.0 -0.6 -1.1 -0.8 -0.5 -1.8 -1.1 -0.2 - -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 -1.2 -1.1 -0.3 -0.4 -1.3 -0.8 -0.6
Vikings 19.7 0.3 0.8 -0.1 -1.8 2.3 -0.1 - 1.2 0.8 -0.2 0.5 -1.1 1.5 0.8 -0.2 2.0 0.7 -0.6 0.4 0.7
Eagles 19.8 -0.4 0.7 -0.9 -1.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 -1.0 -1.3 0.0 - 1.0 -0.7 1.2 0.2 1.0 -0.5 -1.4 -0.2 -0.3
Bengals 21.0 0.6 0.7 -0.4 0.5 1.6 1.4 - 0.5 0.7 2.1 1.2 -1.1 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.8
Packers 20.8 -0.6 0.5 -1.3 0.6 -2.2 0.2 -1.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.8 0.7 - -1.2 -0.8 -0.8 1.4 -0.7 -2.3 -0.5 -0.5
Titans 20.5 -0.6 0.4 -0.3 -1.4 -1.2 -1.7 -0.5 -0.7 -1.5 - -0.5 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6
Jaguars 20.6 0.2 0.4 -0.2 1.5 -0.9 0.5 0.0 - 0.8 0.0 -1.0 -1.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 -0.7 -0.8 0.1 0.0 -0.5
Seahawks 21.5 0.2 0.4 1.5 -1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.6 0.5 1.7 0.5 - -1.3 -0.9 0.6 0.2 0.7 -0.4 0.2 0.1
Saints 18.7 0.5 0.3 -0.7 1.3 1.2 2.5 -0.7 0.2 - 1.6 1.3 0.0 -1.3 2.6 -0.6 -1.6 2.4 0.9 0.6 0.5
Panthers 20.8 -0.2 0.2 0.0 -1.2 0.2 - -1.1 -1.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -2.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -0.6 -0.6
Chiefs 20.1 0.8 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.7 - 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.7 1.1 1.7 -0.3 -0.1 -1.2 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1
Buccaneers 20.9 1.4 0.1 1.3 2.0 2.1 -0.3 1.4 -0.5 1.5 0.3 - 1.3 -0.5 0.4 -0.1 1.0 1.4 0.2 0.7 0.9
Bears 20.7 0.5 -0.1 1.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 -1.2 -1.1 - 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 -1.5 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.5
Cowboys 20.8 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.2 -1.8 -0.3 0.2 -1.8 1.5 -0.2 0.0 0.5 1.3 -1.3 - -0.7 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.4
Colts 21.2 -0.7 -0.2 -1.4 -0.4 -0.9 -1.1 0.3 0.3 -1.2 -0.3 2.1 -1.4 0.7 - -1.0 -1.6 -0.1 -0.7 -0.4 -0.8
Texans 20.3 0.9 -0.4 1.8 1.0 1.2 -0.2 0.8 1.4 - 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.0 0.3 -0.8 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.9
Giants 20.5 0.3 -0.5 -0.6 0.4 2.0 -1.0 0.8 -0.8 - -0.4 -0.1 1.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.9 0.5 -1.0 0.1 0.1
Rams 22.2 0.0 -0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.9 0.5 0.5 -0.6 1.1 - 1.9 1.1 -0.6 0.4 0.6 -1.3 0.4 -0.1
Commanders 19.3 0.1 -0.6 -0.9 0.9 1.0 0.1 -1.6 - 1.1 0.5 -0.7 -1.0 1.5 -1.2 -0.9 1.5 1.3 -0.5 0.0 0.7
49ers 22.9 1.0 -1.0 2.1 1.9 1.2 0.4 -0.3 1.2 - 1.0 -0.2 2.1 1.0 -0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.9 0.8 0.5 -0.1
Falcons 22.7 -0.6 -1.1 0.2 -0.1 -1.6 0.5 1.1 -0.2 -2.0 -1.7 -0.2 - -0.1 1.4 -0.9 -2.0 -0.9 0.5 -0.4 -0.8
Dolphins 21.7 -1.3 -1.2 -2.3 -1.5 -0.3 -1.5 - -1.8 -0.7 -0.1 -0.8 -1.8 -1.2 -1.3 -0.7 -0.5 -1.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.0
Browns 20.1 -1.0 -1.3 -2.0 -0.8 0.2 -0.8 -0.3 -1.0 -0.8 -0.8 -1.4 - -0.4 -0.6 0.4 -1.0 -0.9 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8
Patriots 20.3 0.0 -1.3 1.5 0.5 -0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.8 - 0.0 0.8 1.9 -1.1 -0.1 1.1 0.6 0.0
Bills 21.6 1.0 -1.3 2.3 0.9 2.1 0.2 1.0 - 1.4 1.2 0.3 2.2 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.7 0.4 1.3 1.1 1.2
Jets 19.4 -0.4 -1.4 0.2 0.2 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 0.5 -0.1 -1.2 -0.7 -0.9 -0.3 - -0.6 0.4 -0.2 0.5 -0.3 0.2
Broncos 20.7 0.0 -1.8 1.6 1.0 -0.8 -0.1 1.4 1.4 0.6 -0.5 - 1.1 0.5 2.2 -0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5
Cardinals 20.0 -1.8 -1.9 -0.7 -2.2 -2.3 -0.2 -1.2 -0.9 -1.7 -1.7 -1.0 -1.9 -1.4 -0.3 - -1.0 -1.3 -0.8 -1.3 -1.0

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