Week 1
Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
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Baseline
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3
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AVG
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Playoffs
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 19.6 | 1.3 | Cardinals 2.9 | Raiders 2.0 | Bills -0.2 | Seahawks 0.4 | Broncos 1.9 | Chiefs -0.5 | BYE - | Rams 0.5 | Texans 0.4 | Ravens -0.4 | Jets 1.5 | Patriots 2.3 | Buccaneers -0.9 | Raiders 0.7 | 49ers 1.1 | Dolphins 1.4 | Chiefs 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Raiders | 20.0 | -0.5 | Dolphins 1.5 | Chargers -1.4 | Saints -1.3 | Chiefs -0.9 | Patriots -0.8 | Bills -0.6 | Rams -0.3 | Jets -1.3 | 49ers -2.2 | Seahawks -0.2 | Broncos -1.2 | Browns -1.4 | BYE - | Chargers -1.0 | Broncos -0.1 | Titans -0.5 | Cardinals 0.0 | -0.7 | -0.2 |
| Lions | 22.4 | 0.2 | Saints 1.5 | Bills -1.0 | Jets 1.2 | Panthers -0.9 | Cardinals 1.0 | BYE - | Packers 2.2 | Vikings 2.1 | Dolphins 0.9 | Patriots 0.2 | Buccaneers -0.4 | Bears 1.6 | Falcons 0.9 | Titans 0.8 | Vikings 0.7 | Giants 0.0 | Bears 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Ravens | 20.7 | 0.9 | Colts 1.4 | Saints 1.1 | Cowboys 0.6 | Titans 0.4 | Falcons 1.4 | Browns -0.3 | Bengals -0.2 | Bills -0.7 | Jaguars 1.1 | Chargers -0.4 | Panthers -0.4 | Texans -1.1 | BYE - | Buccaneers -0.4 | Steelers 0.2 | Browns 1.4 | Bengals -0.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Steelers | 22.3 | -0.4 | Falcons 1.0 | Patriots -0.6 | Bengals -1.1 | Browns -0.8 | Colts -0.5 | Buccaneers -1.8 | Saints -1.1 | Browns -0.2 | BYE - | Bengals -1.8 | Eagles -1.2 | Broncos -0.6 | Texans -1.2 | Jaguars -1.1 | Ravens -0.3 | Panthers -0.4 | Titans -1.3 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
| Vikings | 19.7 | 0.3 | Packers 0.8 | Bears -0.1 | Buccaneers -1.8 | Dolphins 2.3 | Saints -0.1 | BYE - | Colts 1.2 | Lions 0.8 | Bills -0.2 | Packers 0.5 | 49ers -1.1 | Falcons 1.5 | Panthers 0.8 | Patriots -0.2 | Lions 2.0 | Commanders 0.7 | Jets -0.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Eagles | 19.8 | -0.4 | Commanders 0.7 | Titans -0.9 | Bears -1.2 | Rams -0.2 | Jaguars 0.3 | Panthers -0.2 | Cowboys -1.0 | Commanders -1.3 | Giants 0.0 | BYE - | Steelers 1.0 | Cowboys -0.7 | Cardinals 1.2 | Colts 0.2 | Seahawks 1.0 | Texans -0.5 | 49ers -1.4 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| Bengals | 21.0 | 0.6 | Buccaneers 0.7 | Texans -0.4 | Steelers 0.5 | Jaguars 1.6 | Dolphins 1.4 | BYE - | Ravens 0.5 | Titans 0.7 | Falcons 2.1 | Steelers 1.2 | Commanders -1.1 | Saints 1.2 | Browns 0.6 | Chiefs 0.6 | Panthers 0.1 | Colts 0.8 | Ravens 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Packers | 20.8 | -0.6 | Vikings 0.5 | Jets -1.3 | Falcons 0.6 | Buccaneers -2.2 | Bears 0.2 | Cowboys -1.0 | Lions 0.3 | Panthers -0.4 | Patriots -0.8 | Vikings 0.7 | BYE - | Rams -1.2 | Saints -0.8 | Bills -0.8 | Dolphins 1.4 | Bears -0.7 | Texans -2.3 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| Titans | 20.5 | -0.6 | Jets 0.4 | Eagles -0.3 | Giants -1.4 | Ravens -1.2 | Texans -1.7 | Colts -0.5 | Browns -0.7 | Bengals -1.5 | BYE - | Jaguars -0.5 | Cowboys -1.1 | Jaguars -1.2 | Commanders -1.2 | Lions 0.1 | Colts -0.7 | Raiders -0.5 | Steelers -0.5 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
| Jaguars | 20.6 | 0.2 | Browns 0.4 | Broncos -0.2 | Patriots 1.5 | Bengals -0.9 | Eagles 0.5 | Texans 0.0 | BYE - | Colts 0.8 | Ravens 0.0 | Titans -1.0 | Giants -1.2 | Titans 0.3 | Bears 0.1 | Steelers 0.3 | Texans -0.7 | Cowboys -0.8 | Commanders 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.5 |
| Seahawks | 21.5 | 0.2 | Patriots 0.4 | Cardinals 1.5 | Commanders -1.0 | Chargers 0.0 | 49ers 0.0 | Broncos -0.1 | Chiefs 0.6 | Bears 0.5 | Cardinals 1.7 | Raiders 0.5 | BYE - | 49ers -1.3 | Cowboys -0.9 | Giants 0.6 | Eagles 0.2 | Rams 0.7 | Panthers -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Saints | 18.7 | 0.5 | Lions 0.3 | Ravens -0.7 | Raiders 1.3 | Falcons 1.2 | Vikings 2.5 | Giants -0.7 | Steelers 0.2 | BYE - | Browns 1.6 | Panthers 1.3 | Bears 0.0 | Bengals -1.3 | Packers 2.6 | Panthers -0.6 | Buccaneers -1.6 | Cardinals 2.4 | Falcons 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Panthers | 20.8 | -0.2 | Bears 0.2 | Falcons 0.0 | Browns -1.2 | Lions 0.2 | BYE - | Eagles -1.1 | Buccaneers -1.5 | Packers -0.1 | Broncos -0.6 | Saints -0.5 | Ravens -0.4 | Buccaneers -2.1 | Vikings -0.2 | Saints -0.6 | Bengals -0.8 | Steelers -0.7 | Seahawks -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| Chiefs | 20.1 | 0.8 | Broncos 0.1 | Colts 1.2 | Dolphins 1.3 | Raiders 0.7 | BYE - | Chargers 0.2 | Seahawks 0.2 | Broncos -0.3 | Jets 0.7 | Falcons 1.1 | Cardinals 1.7 | Bills -0.3 | Rams -0.1 | Bengals -1.2 | Patriots 0.4 | 49ers -0.1 | Chargers 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Buccaneers | 20.9 | 1.4 | Bengals 0.1 | Browns 1.3 | Vikings 2.0 | Packers 2.1 | Cowboys -0.3 | Steelers 1.4 | Panthers -0.5 | Falcons 1.5 | Bears 0.3 | BYE - | Lions 1.3 | Panthers -0.5 | Chargers 0.4 | Ravens -0.1 | Saints 1.0 | Falcons 1.4 | Rams 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Bears | 20.7 | 0.5 | Panthers -0.1 | Vikings 1.4 | Eagles 0.2 | Jets 0.5 | Packers 0.5 | Falcons 0.6 | Patriots 0.7 | Seahawks -1.2 | Buccaneers -1.1 | BYE - | Saints 0.5 | Lions 1.0 | Jaguars 0.8 | Dolphins 0.7 | Bills -1.5 | Packers 1.6 | Lions 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Cowboys | 20.8 | -0.4 | Giants -0.2 | Commanders 0.4 | Ravens 0.2 | Texans -1.8 | Buccaneers -0.3 | Packers 0.2 | Eagles -1.8 | Cardinals 1.5 | Colts -0.2 | 49ers 0.0 | Titans 0.5 | Eagles 1.3 | Seahawks -1.3 | BYE - | Rams -0.7 | Jaguars 1.1 | Giants 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Colts | 21.2 | -0.7 | Ravens -0.2 | Chiefs -1.4 | Texans -0.4 | Commanders -0.9 | Steelers -1.1 | Titans 0.3 | Vikings 0.3 | Jaguars -1.2 | Cowboys -0.3 | Dolphins 2.1 | Texans -1.4 | Giants 0.7 | BYE - | Eagles -1.0 | Titans -1.6 | Bengals -0.1 | Browns -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.8 |
| Texans | 20.3 | 0.9 | Bills -0.4 | Bengals 1.8 | Colts 1.0 | Cowboys 1.2 | Titans -0.2 | Jaguars 0.8 | Giants 1.4 | BYE - | Chargers 0.0 | Browns 0.3 | Colts 1.8 | Ravens 2.0 | Steelers 0.3 | Commanders -0.8 | Jaguars 2.1 | Eagles 0.3 | Packers 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Giants | 20.5 | 0.3 | Cowboys -0.5 | Rams -0.6 | Titans 0.4 | Cardinals 2.0 | Commanders -1.0 | Saints 0.8 | Texans -0.8 | BYE - | Eagles -0.4 | Commanders -0.1 | Jaguars 1.4 | Colts 0.2 | 49ers -0.2 | Seahawks -0.1 | Browns 0.9 | Lions 0.5 | Cowboys -1.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Rams | 22.2 | 0.0 | 49ers -0.5 | Giants 0.4 | Broncos 0.1 | Eagles 0.1 | Bills 0.5 | Cardinals 1.9 | Raiders 0.5 | Chargers 0.5 | Commanders -0.6 | Cardinals 1.1 | BYE - | Packers 1.9 | Chiefs 1.1 | 49ers -0.6 | Cowboys 0.4 | Seahawks 0.6 | Buccaneers -1.3 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| Commanders | 19.3 | 0.1 | Eagles -0.6 | Cowboys -0.9 | Seahawks 0.9 | Colts 1.0 | Giants 0.1 | 49ers -1.6 | BYE - | Eagles 1.1 | Rams 0.5 | Giants -0.7 | Bengals -1.0 | Cardinals 1.5 | Titans -1.2 | Texans -0.9 | Falcons 1.5 | Vikings 1.3 | Jaguars -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 49ers | 22.9 | 1.0 | Rams -1.0 | Dolphins 2.1 | Cardinals 1.9 | Broncos 1.2 | Seahawks 0.4 | Commanders -0.3 | Falcons 1.2 | BYE - | Raiders 1.0 | Cowboys -0.2 | Vikings 2.1 | Seahawks 1.0 | Giants -0.6 | Rams 0.2 | Chargers -0.1 | Chiefs -0.9 | Eagles 0.8 | 0.5 | -0.1 |
| Falcons | 22.7 | -0.6 | Steelers -1.1 | Panthers 0.2 | Packers -0.1 | Saints -1.6 | Ravens 0.5 | Bears 1.1 | 49ers -0.2 | Buccaneers -2.0 | Bengals -1.7 | Chiefs -0.2 | BYE - | Vikings -0.1 | Lions 1.4 | Browns -0.9 | Commanders -2.0 | Buccaneers -0.9 | Saints 0.5 | -0.4 | -0.8 |
| Dolphins | 21.7 | -1.3 | Raiders -1.2 | 49ers -2.3 | Chiefs -1.5 | Vikings -0.3 | Bengals -1.5 | BYE - | Jets -1.8 | Patriots -0.7 | Lions -0.1 | Colts -0.8 | Bills -1.8 | Jets -1.2 | Broncos -1.3 | Bears -0.7 | Packers -0.5 | Chargers -1.6 | Bills -0.8 | -1.1 | -1.0 |
| Browns | 20.1 | -1.0 | Jaguars -1.3 | Buccaneers -2.0 | Panthers -0.8 | Steelers 0.2 | Jets -0.8 | Ravens -0.3 | Titans -1.0 | Steelers -0.8 | Saints -0.8 | Texans -1.4 | BYE - | Raiders -0.4 | Bengals -0.6 | Falcons 0.4 | Giants -1.0 | Ravens -0.9 | Colts -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
| Patriots | 20.3 | 0.0 | Seahawks -1.3 | Steelers 1.5 | Jaguars 0.5 | Bills -0.6 | Raiders 0.9 | Jets 0.7 | Bears 0.7 | Dolphins 1.3 | Packers 1.7 | Lions 1.8 | BYE - | Chargers 0.0 | Bills 0.8 | Vikings 1.9 | Chiefs -1.1 | Jets -0.1 | Broncos 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Bills | 21.6 | 1.0 | Texans -1.3 | Lions 2.3 | Chargers 0.9 | Patriots 2.1 | Rams 0.2 | Raiders 1.0 | BYE - | Ravens 1.4 | Vikings 1.2 | Jets 0.3 | Dolphins 2.2 | Chiefs 0.9 | Patriots 1.1 | Packers 1.6 | Bears 1.7 | Broncos 0.4 | Dolphins 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Jets | 19.4 | -0.4 | Titans -1.4 | Packers 0.2 | Lions 0.2 | Bears -0.8 | Browns -0.5 | Patriots -0.4 | Dolphins 0.5 | Raiders -0.1 | Chiefs -1.2 | Bills -0.7 | Chargers -0.9 | Dolphins -0.3 | BYE - | Broncos -0.6 | Cardinals 0.4 | Patriots -0.2 | Vikings 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.2 |
| Broncos | 20.7 | 0.0 | Chiefs -1.8 | Jaguars 1.6 | Rams 1.0 | 49ers -0.8 | Chargers -0.1 | Seahawks 1.4 | Cardinals 1.4 | Chiefs 0.6 | Panthers -0.5 | BYE - | Raiders 1.1 | Steelers 0.5 | Dolphins 2.2 | Jets -0.3 | Raiders 0.5 | Bills 0.7 | Patriots 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Cardinals | 20.0 | -1.8 | Chargers -1.9 | Seahawks -0.7 | 49ers -2.2 | Giants -2.3 | Lions -0.2 | Rams -1.2 | Broncos -0.9 | Cowboys -1.7 | Seahawks -1.7 | Rams -1.0 | Chiefs -1.9 | Commanders -1.4 | Eagles -0.3 | BYE - | Jets -1.0 | Saints -1.3 | Raiders -0.8 | -1.3 | -1.0 |
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