Fantasy Football Articles & Model Guides

It’s probably not obvious to you, but I really got myself into a fix— How easy it would be to recommend all bets only at Closing! Opening lines cause trouble because the models and lines change— simultaneously— during th

October 1st, 2022 I have been so eager to make this analysis since January! It has just taken this long to get everything in place-- first the models, then the simulation programming, and now the communication. I hope yo

Here's some perspective for you, if you feel a season is going unpredictably and want to know what’s normal. Knowing the accuracy of betting lines especially relates to all positions in fantasy, but especially D/ST, beca

Updated Oct 1, 2022 after a comprehensive study on historical results with data back to 2010. For a while, I was not comfortable suggesting any single spread or O/U to bet on. The randomness is simply too large! However,

Randomness of Spreads: expected values vs. outcomes One of the "a-ha moments" for me was realizing how much error betting lines have, relative to results. You should pretty much expect Spreads to be wrong by 10 points ab

Randomness of O/U: Expectations vs. outcomes of game Total Totals are more random (harder to predict) than spreads: Interesting side note, that the O/U error is not centered at the mode, and there is a longer tail of ove

Sep 22 10:00amEST —Survivor pathway 3B was modified. Sep 21 7:30amEST —Early this morning, there were some erroneous fluctuations in some D/ST projections, while processing a model update. Done now. Sep 19 2:30pmEST —Not

November 19th Here is a new analysis about how significant it is when a kicker scores multiple weeks in a row with 10+ fantasy points! November 15th, 2022 Here is the Reddit post for community discussion Kicker-geddon wa