Week 12
Dolphins
Similar historical matchups
Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Similar | Packers vs Bears | 2021 | 14 | 13 |
Similar | Ravens vs Jaguars | 2014 | 15 | 21 |
Boom | Ravens vs Jaguars | 2014 | 15 | 21 |
Bust | Browns vs Bengals | 2019 | 14 | 5 |
Why so high?
Patriots
Similar historical matchups
Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Similar | 49ers @ Cardinals | 2012 | 8 | 12 |
Similar | 49ers vs Bears | 2012 | 11 | 16 |
Boom | Ravens vs Jaguars | 2014 | 15 | 21 |
Bust | Cardinals vs Browns | 2011 | 15 | 5 |
Why so high?
Why so low?
Titans
Similar historical matchups
Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Similar | Vikings vs Cardinals | 2012 | 7 | 17 |
Similar | Titans vs Jaguars | 2018 | 14 | 11 |
Boom | Vikings vs Cardinals | 2012 | 7 | 17 |
Bust | Steelers vs Bears | 2021 | 9 | 4 |
Why so high?
Why so low?
Cowboys
Similar historical matchups
Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Similar | Patriots vs Jaguars | 2015 | 3 | 7 |
Similar | Cardinals vs Panthers | 2021 | 10 | 3 |
Boom | Rams vs Texans | 2017 | 10 | 16 |
Bust | Cardinals vs Panthers | 2021 | 10 | 3 |
Why so high?
Chiefs
Similar historical matchups
Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Similar | Ravens vs Titans | 2014 | 10 | 14 |
Similar | Titans vs Texans | 2017 | 13 | 8 |
Boom | Bengals vs Jets | 2013 | 8 | 25 |
Bust | Cardinals vs Panthers | 2021 | 10 | 3 |
Why so high?
49ers
Similar historical matchups
Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Similar | Lions vs Bears | 2016 | 14 | 6 |
Similar | Chiefs vs Buccaneers | 2016 | 11 | 0 |
Boom | Seahawks vs Cardinals | 2014 | 12 | 11 |
Bust | Chiefs vs Buccaneers | 2016 | 11 | 0 |
Why so high?
Why so low?
Ravens
Similar historical matchups
Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Similar | Saints vs Vikings | 2020 | 16 | 0 |
Similar | Panthers vs Ravens | 2018 | 8 | 8 |
Boom | Saints vs Falcons | 2020 | 11 | 17 |
Bust | Saints vs Vikings | 2020 | 16 | 0 |
Why so low?
Bengals
Similar historical matchups
Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Similar | Bills vs Dolphins | 2016 | 16 | -4 |
Similar | Browns vs Bills | 2019 | 10 | 2 |
Boom | Raiders vs Bears | 2011 | 12 | 7 |
Bust | Bills vs Dolphins | 2016 | 16 | -4 |
Why so high?
Why so low?
Refreshed 9 minutes ago
Week 12
Lamar Jackson | BAL
23.9Dak Prescott | DAL
23.6Jalen Hurts | PHI
22.6Patrick Mahomes | KC
21.2Josh Allen | BUF
19.0Cousins / Dobbs / Mullens / Hall | MIN
18.5Jared Goff | DET
17.7Lawrence / Beathard | JAC
17.6Richardson / Minshew | IND
17.3Fields / Bagent | CHI
17.3Stroud / Keenum / Mills | HOU
17.2Brock Purdy | SF
16.8Refreshed 8 minutes ago
Week 12 Tier
Brandon Aubrey | DAL
Why so high?
Why so low?
Brandon McManus | JAC
Why so high?
Harrison Butker | KC
Why so high?
Why so low?
Hopkins / Patterson | CLE
Why so high?
Why so low?
Justin Tucker | BAL
Why so high?
Why so low?
Maher / Havrisik | LAR
Why so high?
Why so low?
Matt Gay | IND
Why so high?
Younghoe Koo | ATL
Why so high?
Refreshed 8 minutes ago
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Background , Updates / NewsBy Subvertadown
Tagged under
Current SeasonJanuary 2nd, 2024
[Final accuracy round-up posted here]
[Season wrap-up and Week 18 suggestions posted here]
For now I wanted to note that the website is entering off-season mode, with the site unlocked and free to explore.
As I always do in the off-season, the projections in all charts now represent how the models would predict things now, “as if those games were played over again today.” This lets us judge what results were “random” when they happened, compared to what the expectations should have been.
At the season start we did not have nearly complete knowledge of each team’s strengths and weaknesses. This view lets us explore “what ifs” and “if only we had known…”
Have fun with it!
More soon, and Happy New Year,
/Subvertadown
Update Saturday January 6th
Simplified model output for D/ST and Kicker in week 18: