Predictive insights with statistical integrity
My fantasy rankings and accuracy reports get too much of the attention.
What people really stay for is a shared love of extracting predictive insights. We don’t just want rankings. We want to understand the real drivers. We want confidence in the reasoning behind our fantasy decisions.
At Subvertadown, my hand-tailored AI reveals what data's most meaningful. And it's broken down so you can easily understand and choose the best odds.
Freely browse the live examples on this page: guidance for multi-week planning, visuals that explain what causes a high or low ranking, advice on betting lines and timing, and lots of nuggets for your strategy.
SANTA CLARA, CA - NOVEMBER 24: Christian McCaffrey #23 of the San Francisco 49ers attempts to run past Chau Smith-Wade #26 of the Carolina Panthers during a NFL game on November 24, 2025 at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. (Photo by Matthew Huang/Icon Sportswire)
Thanksgiving 2025 - Week 13
Strategize who you stream—and plan your “holds” by using 17-week forecasting charts.
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Playoffs
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| Seahawks | Vikings 10.5 | Falcons 7.3 | Colts 5.3 | Rams 4.4 | Panthers 8.4 | 7.2 | 6.0 |
| 49ers | Browns 10.0 | BYE - | Titans 9.6 | Colts 3.5 | Bears 6.3 | 7.4 | 6.5 |
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| Lamar Jackson | BAL | Bengals 21.8 | Steelers 20.4 | Bengals 22.0 | Patriots 20.3 | Packers 17.4 | 20.4 | 19.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | Cowboys 21.5 | Texans 17.4 | Chargers 19.9 | Titans 19.6 | Broncos 17.8 | 19.3 | 19.1 |
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Members here mostly care what’s behind the numbers: rigorous models. But the website goes further by also interpreting the reasons behind each recommendation. So try hovering over the tool-tips for deeper explanations, to help you reason your weekly pick.
Quarterbacks
| Wk 13 Proj. Stats | ||||||||||
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| Player | Matchup |
Wk 13
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Wk 14
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Wk 15
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Err.
This is an estimate of confidence in the projection. A lower error means less deviation is expected — this should mean a higher floor but also a lower ceiling.
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PaY
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RuY
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PTD
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Int.
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| Lamar Jackson |
Why so high?
Why so low?
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BAL vs. CIN | CIN 21.8 | Steelers 20.4 | Bengals 22.0 | 5.0 | 247 | 36 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes |
Why so high?
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KC @ DAL | DAL 21.5 | Texans 17.4 | Chargers 19.9 | 6.2 | 274 | 26 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
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D/STs
| Wk 13 Proj. Stats | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Wk 13
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Wk 14
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Wk 15
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Hold? Is this player/team a likely top-8 hold rest of season? |
Err.
This is an estimate of confidence in the projection. A lower error means less deviation is expected — this should mean a higher floor but also a lower ceiling.
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PA
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YA
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Int.
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Sacks
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FR
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TD
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| Seahawks vs. Vikings |
Seahawks Week 13Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
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MIN 10.5 | - | 5.0 | 15.5 | 281 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.18 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 49ers @ Browns |
49ers Week 13Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
Why so low?
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CLE 10.0 | - | 5.0 | 16.5 | 276 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.25 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Kickers
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Wk 13 Proj. Risk
The headings in the Risk section are useful for explaining the range of outcomes that is likely for each kicker.
Err: The likelihood of results being far from the projected number. 4thD: A modeled estimate of the # of 4th downs that the team will attempt. Missed: A modeled estimate of the # kicks likely to be missed, based on many game factors including weather. Ceil: The likeliest outcome above the main projection. Fl: The likeliest outcome below the main projection. DD%: The modeled probability of the kicker scoring Double Digits (10+). LD%: The modeled probability of the kicker scoring Low Digits (0-5). |
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| Player | Matchup |
Wk 13
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Wk 14
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Wk 15
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Is this player/team a likely top-8 hold rest of season?
Hold? |
Err. This is an estimate of confidence in the projection. A lower error means less deviation is expected — this should mean a higher floor but also a lower ceiling. |
4thD
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Missed
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Ceil
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Fl
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DD%
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LD%
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FG
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XP
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Implied score of the offense, according to betting lines.
Impl. score |
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| Cameron Dicker | LAC vs. LV |
Cameron Dicker
Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
Why so low?
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LV 10.8 | Eagles 9.8 | Chiefs 8.2 | Y | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 13.8 | 7.4 | 45% | 11% | 2.3 | 2.5 | 25.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jason Myers | SEA vs. MIN |
Jason Myers
Similar historical matchups
Why so high?
Why so low?
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MIN 10.6 | Falcons - | Colts - | Y | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 13.9 | 7.6 | 45% | 11% | 2.2 | 2.9 | 26.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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‘Strength of Schedule (SoS) forecasts the difficulty for a team’s, for future weeks. These charts are based on multi-dimensional predictive models, which makes them much more reliable than plain “fantasy points allowed” that you might find elsewhere, if you’re making your roster decisions based on opponents.
Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.
Running Backs
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Baseline
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Next 4
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AVG
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Playoffs
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| Broncos | 19.3 | 0.9 | Commanders 3.2 | Raiders 1.3 | Packers -0.8 | Jaguars -0.2 | Chiefs -3.7 | 0.0 | -1.6 |
| Saints | 14.9 | 0.9 | Dolphins 0.4 | Buccaneers -0.2 | Panthers 1.9 | Jets 1.5 | Titans 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
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Wide Receivers
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Baseline
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| Raiders | 16.8 | 0.0 | Chargers 0.6 | Broncos -0.1 | Eagles 0.7 | Texans -1.4 | Giants 4.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Vikings | 26.8 | 1.2 | Seahawks -0.7 | Commanders 2.9 | Cowboys 2.1 | Giants 0.7 | Lions 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
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Tight Ends
Betting lines: A portfolio of suggested likely betting options, among spreads and O/Us. In addition to scaling the level of each wager, it also suggests whether to bet near opening or closing.
Bets for Open
Spreads
| Original Spreads (Tuesday) and Updates | Current Spreads (if placed after Tuesday) | ||||||||
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| Orig. Pick | Orig. Line | Opponent | Orig. Bet | Update | Revised Pick? | Curr. Line | Bet Until | Current | |
| PackersTNF | 2.7 | Lions | $4 | - | - | 2.7 | 0.3 | $4 | |
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O/U
| Original O/U (Tuesday) and Updates | Current O/U (if placed after Tuesday) | |||||||||
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| Home | Away | Orig. Pick | Orig. Line | Orig. Bet | Update | Revised Pick? | Curr. Line | Bet Until | Current | |
| RavensTNF | Bengals | U | 51.7 | $4 | - | - | 51.7 | 49.5 | $2 | |
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Preview how I turn stats into useful reasoning! The pros-and-cons lists have extracted statistical drivers from key data. This can supplement your kicker choices, no matter what rankings you use!
Even if you're not subscribed for our full ordered rankings, we provide the following pros-and-cons list for all kickers. The reasonings are based on statistical drivers extracted from key data, so the explanations can give you insight into why a kicker is ranked where it is. Regardless of whose kicker rankings you use each week, this should help you make a better informed decision.
| Pros | Cons | ||
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| Cameron Dicker | LAC vs. LV |
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| Jason Myers | SEA vs. MIN |
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D/ST scores are crowd-sourced from your votes, in the D/ST Pick6x6 contest.
D/ST based on votes
Week 13
Pending votes
-Pending votes
-Pending votes
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-Pending votes
-Pending votes
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Score expectations for all 32 teams, trained to account for all team aspects on both sides of the ball. QBs, D/STs, and Kickers.
Quarterback
Week 13
Lamar Jackson | BAL
Why so high?
- most points expected acc. betting lines
- 5th highest QB rushing stats
Why so low?
- divisional game
Patrick Mahomes | KC
Why so high?
- 3rd most points expected acc. betting lines
- 9th highest QB rushing stats
Jalen Hurts | PHI
Why so high?
- 6th highest QB rushing stats
- 7th most points expected acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- 8th best opponent pass defense
Josh Allen | BUF
Why so high?
- 3rd highest QB rushing stats
- 8th most points expected acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- weather
- 5th highest chance of RBs taking points
Drake Maye | NE
Why so high?
- 4th most points expected acc. betting lines
- 10th highest QB rushing stats
Justin Herbert | LAC
Why so high?
- 4th highest QB rushing stats
- 9th most points expected acc. betting lines
Why so low?
- divisional game
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This is the most useful way to think about your kicker’s opportunities! Get unique insight to each kicker’s volumes and likely field positions.
Cameron Dicker
- More kicking opportunities overall, at all distances.
- Less likely to take long kicks, despite drives stopping upfield.
- Bolstered by a floor of RZ opportunities.
It’s not only the projection that matters! It’s key to consider the range of possible outcomes. My algorithms search for the most similar historical matches and show you what actually happened.
Seahawks Similar historical matchups
| Matchup | Year | Wk | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similar | Rams @ Cardinals | 2019 | 13 | 8 |
| Similar | Raiders vs Chargers | 2022 | 13 | 10 |
| Boom | Chiefs vs Dolphins | 2017 | 5 | 17 |
| Bust | Cowboys vs Bills | 2019 | -1 |
Specialized advice for Survivor, based on my own game score models—and my own optimization algorithm. Covers 3 surviving pathways all season!
Path 3A
| Week | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | PHI |
| 2 | SF |
| 3 | SEA |
| 4 | HOU |
| 5 | DET |
| 6 | IND |
| 7 | GB |
| 8 | KC |
| 9 | LAC |
| 10 | DEN |
| 11 | NE |
| 12 | BAL |
| 13 | LAR |
| 14 | BUF |
| 15 | PIT |
| 16 | TB |
| 17 | DAL |
| Longevity Expectancy value of number of weeks survival, i.e. before a loss. | 2.7 |
Path 3B
| Week | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | PHI |
| 2 | SF |
| 3 | SEA |
| 4 | HOU |
| 5 | DET |
| 6 | IND |
| 7 | GB |
| 8 | KC |
| 9 | LAC |
| 10 | DEN |
| 11 | NE |
| 12 | BAL |
| 13 | MIA |
| 14 | LAR |
| 15 | TB |
| 16 | BUF |
| 17 | DAL |
| Longevity Expectancy value of number of weeks survival, i.e. before a loss. | 2.5 |
Thanksgiving 2025 - Week 13
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