Fantasy Football Articles & Model Guides

November 1st —- For discussion about week 9 streaming, join the exchange here on Reddit. I’m not getting all the signs that space is bringing you the value I hoped you’d get, so definitely indicate if I should keep it up

Leaving this up for anyone who was too busy leading up to the holidays: December 23, 2025 [2pmEST: D/STs were updated with some significant rank changes compared to morning launch.] Welcome to the final week of the fanta

December 16, 2025 If you were lucky enough to make playoffs, I hope you guys are holding up! The Subvertadown models kind of crushed it for week 15, especially up against other sources. It frankly feels kind of cringey t

2025 Hey gang! Hopefully you’ve had a chance to see my Reddit post, with analysis about pairing D/STs and opposing offensive players. As promised, here are some top options for Defenses and Kickers this week. I spent som

[UPDATE: Here’s a Reddit post for the video with J.J. Zachariason. Give it your upvote, and find the video version in the comments! ] December 8, 2025 Hey gang! No special news. Last time I reminded you about the 3rd mon

December 2, 2025 I hope everyone got a chance to look over the 3rd monthly Accuracy Report I published last time. The Accuracy Report covers the main successes and difficulties of the 2025 season: D/STs Great! I see my m

November 25, 2025 Hey everyone, I hope you’re all ready to wind down a bit and enjoy the holidays! Sadly, the other thing winding down is… the fantasy season. The charity drive continues, though, and so far we have raise

November 28, 2025 Time to reflect again on the predictability of the 2025 season: month #3 now, following up on the reports for month #1and for month #2. If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy has been a l

Hey everyone! Specially posting a D/ST list off-Reddit, because the image I created doesn’t make it easy to see the order. I hope you found the graph interesting though! The Week 9 Reddit post is linked here So here are

October 28, 2025 We’re past halfway! Accuracy report Month #2 will come out after a few days. Reddit post for D/STs is up, here Last Week Week 8 was actually mostly good for predictions— Except some people experienced ve

Hey everyone! Specially posting a Kicker list off-Reddit, to more easily see the order. I hope you found the graph interesting though! The Week 9 Reddit post is linked here And by the way, the D/ST Week 9 Reddit post is

November 3, 2025 Time to reflect again on the predictability of the 2025 season: month #2 now, following up on the report for month #1. If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy has been a long-standing tradi

October 21, 2025 [Kicker post is here.] Last week That was a resoundingly good week 7, as far as fantasy predictions go! Unless you chose Steelers D/ST (my #6), or Matt Gay (my #4) as your Kicker, chances are that the mo

October 13, 2025 [Kicker Post Here!] [D/ST post here] [Trade Value post here] Welcome to week 7— amazingly with more than 1/3 of the season behind us! In previous years, I’ve used a weekly front page article to direct yo

October 2, 2025 Time to reflect on the predictability of the 2025 season so far! If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy has been a long-standing tradition, underpinning a key purpose of Subvertadown: To gi

Hi Reddit! This is the follow-up to my Tuesday Reddit post, for those who wanted more of these visuals, ranked by average. These are the top 16 charts are for the “Similar Historical Matches”, as of early Tuesday. (Obvio

[Update: Season wrap-up post on Reddit] December 31, 2024 That’s a wrap, folks! The website is now in off-season mode. As of Jan 5th, the website 17-week charts display the past weeks as they would have been calculated i

This year's Kicker Wall of Shame. Here was a link to a previous year's. Week 1: Koo at #1 with 4 points. Reichard at #4 with 4 points. Week 2: No true bust this week! (Moody scored 5) Week 3: A historically abominable we

December 24, 2024 Happy holidays to everyone, and good luck in the finals! In week 16, D/STs and Kickers turned out to be extremely predictable, for fantasy. Hopefully that benefited you more than your opponent! The main

December 17, 2024 Week 15 was great for accuracy, all around. In my collaboration with Keith Lott of FantasySixPack.net, his own D/ST rankings now stand at #6 for the year according to FantasyPros. You can view his full

December 10, 2024 No particular news this time. Here are a few small notes: Reddit post: Early Tuesday D/ST picks Accuracy report that was posted last week All Survivor teams won again in week 14, and Betting Lines final

[Accuracy Report Weeks 1 - 12] [D/ST Reddit post] November 25, 2024 Week 12 was very good for the streaming models, and soon I will publish another accuracy round-up. But the main news is— Happy Thanksgiving— we are agai

[Week 14 Reddit post for D/ST] [Week 14 Reddit post for Kicker] Congrats on the Charity Drive! We have donated the collected total of $750 to the Concussion Legacy Foundation. (Remember, you can still donate on your own!

Early D/ST Reddit post is here November 18, 2024 There’s increasing talk about which D/STs to grab for playoffs. A few reminders: Long-range subscribers already have the view of all forecasts, in the 17-week charts, incl

November 11, 2024 Updates Note that we have added the Playoffs columns, to the 17-week charts. This column allows you to sort each table by highest averages for the three final weeks: 15, 16, and 17. I hope you enjoy the

Reddit early-Tuesday D/ST discussion here Reddit Kicker discussion here, explaining new tool (also described here below) November 5, 2024 I’ve got good news for the website developments! First, slightly sadder news: some

October 29th, 2024 Reddit early D/ST post is here for discussion Thanks for showing your support last time! Extra post, explaining Methodology for kicker modeling Last week Week 8 demonstrated a shift— it was a week for

Note Oct 27th the betting lines were accidentally continuing “live”, during the first Sunday games, whereas normally I freeze the imports prior to kick-off. I’ve now made sure to correct / restore the betting lines table

October 15, 2024 [This week’s D/ST Reddit post here] [Last year’s year-end accuracy report was here] Time to reflect on the predictability of the 2024 season so far! If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy

Oct. 13th 6am— There is an update to the betting lines, which improves the logic for bet selection, specifically in mid-season (which is different from full season logic). A number of additional recommendations have appe

(Monday 3:30pm: All week 5 projections are recorded as usual; you might notice some changes before MNF, while betting lines models get an update in preparation for week 6.) (Sunday 3:30pm: Anyone who noticed a duplicate

September 27, 2024 To bring more joy into streaming, I hope Week 3 was a true low point for the season! Every season will have a mix of down weeks among the great ones. As posted here on Reddit, week 3 was the most abysm

Sep 22 10:00amEST —Survivor pathway 3B was modified. Sep 21 7:30amEST —Early this morning, there were some erroneous fluctuations in some D/ST projections, while processing a model update. Done now. Sep 19 2:30pmEST —Not

September 10, 2024 [Reddit D/ST Post is Here] Another first week of a season— and we’re reminded of just how much we can get surprised. We plan our picks all pre-season, we feel confident in likely outcomes— And still, t

Sep 8 morning update: Future rankings are adjusted to approximate Jordan Love’s absence. Survivor paths are modified as well, and now include 6 different options instead of 3, for week 1. Sep. 3, 2024 So close to kick-of

August 2024 Welcome back to Subvertadown! It’s been a super-busy offseason: model updates and new website tools, described below. For those new, you should catch up on the last status by reading the 2023 Final Accuracy R

For reference, here were my earlier accuracy reports: last year 2022, 1st month 2023, 2nd month 2023, 3rd month 2023. TL;DR-- D/STs good, Kickers = a bad year for all rankers, QB good, Survivor meh, Betting lines prettah

December 26th, 2023 [Reddit post here for discussion] This is it! Down to the finish. Those of you who read my Christmas Day update already know: Last week was exceptionally anomalous, which is not what we wanted, in the

December 25th, 2023 Update: A special notice today, as I would like to wish Happy Holidays… And I would especially like if I could give the gift of a fantastic week 16— just as week 15 was and many others have been! Unfo

December 12th, 2023 [Reddit post for D/ST and Kicker discussion is here] For 6 weeks since week 8, we saw an extended and consistent era of predictability. It seemed like we’d had it all figured out. Now Week 14 has brou

November 28, 2023 [Reddit discussion for D/ST and Kicker is here.] Welcome back from the Thanksgiving Weekend. We’re soon close to 100 participants in the Charity Drive: $5 for a week’s access to the Long Range tier (inc

December 5th, 2023 No special updates into week 14, but below is the accuracy report I completed after week 12. Last week (week 13) went all around great for fantasy, where I especially differentiated myself in D/ST and

November 21, 2023 Welcome to week 12… Now sure how that happened, since it feels like I just publish a week 8 accuracy report! Anyway, we’re nearing the finish line, before playoffs. This is the first week you might cons

November 14th, 2023 FYI — No separate Reddit posts planned. You can now sort the ROS tables by the new “Playoffs” column! Last week D/ST was quite in line with accuracy expectations, and betting lines luckily rebounded w

November 7th, 2023 [Reddit discussion about D/ST is here.] [Reddit Consensus post for D/ST and Kicker is here] Week 9 was an amazing week for basically every projection model. It was particularly a boom week for D/ST and

October 31st, 2023 [Reddit discussion about D/ST will be postponed for this week. Happy Halloween!] An Accuracy Report for the second month will come out sometime soon! Targeting the weekend. Meanwhile, last week was a m

Hi everyone, and welcome to another accuracy round-up! If you’re new to these: Examining predictive accuracy has been a long-standing tradition, underpinning the whole purpose of Subvertadown. These reports are not— and

Oct 24th, 2023 [Reddit discussion about D/ST is here.] [Reddit discussion about Kicker is here.] NOTE Saturday, October 28th: You will notice some of the Kickers got shuffled during a minor update today (usually within h

Oct 17th, 2023 [Reddit discussion about D/ST is here.] [Reddit discussion about the unusual Kicker predictability.] Week 6 was overall very good for defense predictability and D/ST scoring. And two weeks in a row have be

Oct 9th, 2023 [Reddit discussion about D/ST is here.] [Reddit discussion about Kickers is here.] Week 6th brings such mixed feelings. On the one hand, it always feels like we’ve figured out the teams. In fact, it appears

October 3rd, 2023 [10:45EST — Slight shuffle due to an update; but tried to fix the Thursday values as they were.] Reddit post for D/ST discussion Four weeks have passed. The season always feels more officially in full s

[Saturday note: The model is getting updated as we transition from “early season” into some effect of “mid-season”. You will notice some shifting of projections. I don’t expect the order of things will change much.] Redd

Week 3 Cautious Hope Reddit post for D/ST Consensus based on Pick 6×6 game Reddit post for D/ST discussion Reddit post for Kicker discussion Looking at week 2: Predictability increased all around, from week 1 to week 2,

Week 2 So far so good Reddit post for D/ST discussion Reddit post for Kicker discussion Offensive players underscored in week 1; top QBs faltered. But at least your Defenses probably got points, and my top-8 Kickers had

September 2, 2023 Are you ready for this? Week 1 has arrived, and I want to make sure everyone knows all the features from this website. Therefore, please review the first 2 minutes of the video I’ve put together: Now, a

Updated August 31: The new models are now active! I have made a new improvement this year, which is that all 40 models have been re-calibrated to the first weeks of the season. That means that, instead of applying trends

January 15th, 2022 A reminder that the website is in off-season mode: unlocked and free to explore. As always in the off-season, all projections now represent how the models would predict things now, “as if those games w

December 27th, 2022 This is it, the final week! Before everyone disappears, I want to thank you for joining this first year at the website. It was really an adventure, and in the end I think it worked close to how it was

January 6th, 2022 Here’s a post analyzing how 2022 NFL scoring was different and impacted fantasy And find below a written list of K and D/ST streaming candidates for week 18. January 4th, 2022 For now I wanted to note t

December 20th, 2022 Welcome to the final stretch! Here’s the community waivers discussion. I only have 2 items of note for Week 16: There seems to be a comfortable level of acceptable options this week— however fewer for

December 13th, 2022 The post for community discussion is here. Go share your take! Charitable Donation Update More than 100 additional subscribers (111) joined the "1 week charity" campaign. In total, $2,652.00 was donat

December 4th Third monthly Accuracy Report posted here. It will be also up on the website, soon. November 29th Community waivers discussion here. Well done, to all who signed up for the “Playoffs View for Charity” or mon

Dec 6th: Click here for the week 14 community discussion December 4th, 2022 Welcome to my 3rd monthly "accuracy review" for 2022. The same post appears here. As always to start, here's the chart of all positions, with so

November 26th FYI, we have created a new 1-week tier for $5, solely for donating the charity “Concussion Legacy Foundation.” The “Playoffs View for Charity” grants access to all Long Range content, for your playoffs plan

November 19th Here is a new analysis about how significant it is when a kicker scores multiple weeks in a row with 10+ fantasy points! November 15th, 2022 Here is the Reddit post for community discussion Kicker-geddon wa

November 12, 2022 A minor correction made on the new kicker model: Maher moved lower for this week. (Still good ROS.) November 11, 2022 Update: Kicker discussion located here! Don’t miss the analysis and description of t

October 18, 2022 Items Worth Noting: Don’t miss the Reddit forum discussion about D/ST waiver picks. Includes remarks on how tough week 6 was. Only 2 byes next week. The current week is what you’ve been preparing for. Ne

October 11, 2022 Items worth noting: I’m aware the betting lines give much less recs this week than usual. It seems like my models and Vegas agree more often this year than in the past. The betting lines display format w

Welcome to my first "accuracy review" for 2022! The content is going to be a bit different from now on, so let me explain: I'll report (monthly now) the overview of how all my OWN models are performing, as I did before.

September 24, 2022 A couple short updates. First is that the QB model now has its update! So it is based on more years of data. I don’t stop working! Next will come some improvements to betting lines, but it may not be i

Update September 14, 11:30 EST Note you can toggle which default D/ST scores display (“ESPN/Yahoo”) when you visit this website in the future. Just choose your preferred option at the bottom of the webpage! I want to hig

September 5th, 2022 Welcome If you’re new and missed the article about what this whole website is about, read here. For everyone else, welcome back, and at long last welcome to the start of week 1! There are a few extra

Here we go streamers! Let's look back at our season's heroes. As opposed to evaluating top holds (posted elsewhere), players who were best for streaming are not defined by consistent high scoring. Two reasons for preferr

Cheering up the off-season void with a little entertainment of analysis. As a supplement to 2021's best streamers, let’s first review 2021's best performers. Who would have been best to hold, now that we have the benefit